http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2013/12/no...leife.html
Dave said...
To the point of whether a belief is a belief, I would defend Noah by saying that people don't necessarily act on beliefs, and they often don't voice the same belief they actually act upon. In other words, asking somebody of their belief is different than watching their behavior and inferring the belief that caused it.
Self-reporting of beliefs that cause action are very unreliable, in my opinion. Noah's dad is a
temperament,
Come back, come back!
Slap, slap across your face.
Wake up!
Both palms pumping on your chest.
One one thousand, two one thousand...
Don't give up on me now!
Mouth to mouth resuscitation?
Eh...
Oh! You waking up... (phew!)
What happened?
Write halfway then suddenly stop.
You gave me a fright!
The way I look at it is simple: Does anyone in this fundy forum know what is the EXACT value of a stock?
We live in an uncertain world but we want to hide in comfort of certainty, that the sun always rises or the market is perfect. If people like us don't know the exact value of a stock, how can the mass market be perfect?
The market psyche is as perfect as those who queue up to buy nice food... because if there is a queue it must be nice
It is not an unreasonable assumption, but it is a heuristic cue (pun intended). Many claim markets are perfect because when a sudden event happen, usually the stocks react correctly. I would argue because fundy people move in first and the rest came to "queue". This behavior however works both ways as in Blumont.
In truth
technical analysts are more perfect market ideology than us. They believe market is perfect and only look at behaviors. We believe markets are imperfect and hence one day the true fundy value will be realised
Short term voting machine and a long term weighing machine is the most apt description of the market that I have heard.
(23-12-2013, 11:02 AM)specuvestor Wrote: [ -> ]The way I look at it is simple: Does anyone in this fundy forum know what is the EXACT value of a stock?
We live in an uncertain world but we want to hide in comfort of certainty, that the sun always rises or the market is perfect. If people like us don't know the exact value of a stock, how can the mass market be perfect?
The market psyche is as perfect as those who queue up to buy nice food... because if there is a queue it must be nice It is not an unreasonable assumption, but it is a heuristic cue (pun intended). Many claim markets are perfect because when a sudden event happen, usually the stocks react correctly. I would argue because fundy people move in first and the rest came to "queue". This behavior however works both ways as in Blumont.
In truth technical analysts are more perfect market ideology than us. They believe market is perfect and only look at behaviors. We believe markets are imperfect and hence one day the true fundy value will be realised
Short term voting machine and a long term weighing machine is the most apt description of the market that I have heard.
Well said.
i think you have put it so much easier for layman or NEWBIE to grasp the meaning of investing in the market.
(23-12-2013, 10:41 AM)Jared Seah Wrote: [ -> ]temperament,
Come back, come back!
Slap, slap across your face.
Wake up!
Both palms pumping on your chest.
One one thousand, two one thousand...
Don't give up on me now!
Mouth to mouth resuscitation?
Eh...
Oh! You waking up... (phew!)
What happened?
Write halfway then suddenly stop.
You gave me a fright!
No lah!
It's just all these professors (Nobel Prize Winners) always give me a lot of headaches whenever i try to read their articles.
1) temperament,
I know what you mean. Shh...
2) specuvestor,
True to your nick, you certainly know your way around both sides of the pond.
Some think they are fundy when all they do is following the taste buds of food critics.
Some laugh at technicians when they are doing the same queue spotting game.
"Short term voting machine and a long term weighing machine" is the most apt description of the market that I have heard.
yup. totally agreed.
The market is dominated by TAs but, being majority doesn't always means that you are correct.
Then again, without them, there would be no value play.
Its like if there is no bad, you would not know what good is.
WB is correct so is G. Soros.
As long as you made money, no one is correct or wrong.
^^^ I beg to differ. Making money has nothing to do with you right or wrong. It could have totally nothing to do with your investment thesis.
But a bean counter is still an IMPORTANT INDICATOR to remind us whether our thesis is working, but it may not answer you why