Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)

(01-10-2013, 09:02 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(01-10-2013, 01:17 PM)HoHo Wrote: Ren Yuan Lin = Warren Buffett

If the statement is refer to the investment segment of YZJ, than it is definitely an over-statement, even I am confidence Mr. Ren is a wise and prudent businessman.

I've met the chairman 6 years ago when he was doing the RMB onshore/offshore interest rate arb thing because he holds so much cash. I was shocked at first but made me keen to follow how this will end

Very smart savvy guy... but I would discount prudence

(02-10-2013, 09:17 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(01-10-2013, 09:02 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(01-10-2013, 01:17 PM)HoHo Wrote: Ren Yuan Lin = Warren Buffett

If the statement is refer to the investment segment of YZJ, than it is definitely an over-statement, even I am confidence Mr. Ren is a wise and prudent businessman.

I've met the chairman 6 years ago when he was doing the RMB onshore/offshore interest rate arb thing because he holds so much cash. I was shocked at first but made me keen to follow how this will end

Very smart savvy guy... but I would discount prudence

I didn't meet him in person, and never know his personal investment.

The conclusion is mainly base on his way of managing the company business. But it is a good input, thanks

U misunderstood me Not personal investment... I meant YZJ held too much cash if you recall because of all the upfront payment from customers when capacity was tight... those were invested

(02-10-2013, 01:56 PM)specuvestor Wrote: U misunderstood me Not personal investment... I meant YZJ held too much cash if you recall because of all the upfront payment from customers when capacity was tight... those were invested

Base on the records so far, no clue that it was vested into that. May be just a small talk.

You might also aware, there is no arb opportunity for offshore/onshore RMB with differences between CNY and CNH, although both are yuan. Unless he referred to oversea venture's funding, which YZJ seemed no such venture then.

FYI, the HTM investment started around 2007, which was 6 years ago.

There was significant arb opportunity between offshore and onshore rates 6 years ago. Cost of funding was much lower offshore as people expected RMB to appreciate. That precedes the Chinese property companies raising dim sum bonds.

Unlikely you can see any info on the B/S because those are considered treasury operations, could be just classified as derivatives or hedges. Interesting that u mention the HTM are also 6 years ago. I got to look more in detail to satisfy my own curiosity.

Anyway my point is that the guy is very savvy. I was worried he was spending time doing something non-core and might blow-up. And that's 6 years ago and counting

(02-10-2013, 02:14 PM)specuvestor Wrote: There was arb opportunity between offhosre and onshore rates 6 years ago. Cost of funding was much lower offshore as people expected RMB to appreciate. That precedes the Chinese property companies raising dim sum bonds.

Anyway my point is that the guy is very savvy. I was worried he was spending time doing something non-core.

For the company, focus on core, and yet exploring supplementary revenue streams, might not be a bad strategy. The same as Keppel in Singapore, during its early days.

But yes, the worry is definitely real. The case of China Aviation Oil trading scandal, is a typical case that can drive a company to bankruptcy.

Closed at $1.135 today. This is a world class company, valuation is too low. If yangzijiang is listed in DJIA, i think priced at 2 times book value is no problem. Strong buy and accumulate.

I still think Ren Yuan Lin is equal to Warren Buffett. Only that he is born in China, but already so successful. If he is born in USA, i think can be as good as Warren buffett.

Maybank KE's report on the company.

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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Wary of a False Dawn; Cut to Sell, $1.135 - TP $0.98
YZJSGD SP | Mkt Cap USD3.5b | ADTV USD13.2m

Ø Cut to contrarian SELL, SOTP-based TP at SGD0.98. We do not see a broad-based recovery for Chinese shipbuilders yet as (1) rise in BDI was led mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels, (2) container freight rates remain weak, and (3) yard overcapacity issue lingers. We fear that YZJ’s recent rise in share price may meet with downward pressure when shipping market recovery story disappoints.
Ø We do not see shipbuilding prices picking up significantly yet. While there may be some short-term spike in new orders, we still see margin contraction and EPS decline for YZJ’s core shipbuilding business for FY13-15F as higher margin contracts are depleted from orderbook.
Ø We agree YZJ would be the best proxy to ride a shipbuilding recovery cycle, but we disagree that this is the turn. We think that the recent lift in valuation is fragile as it is not supported by future EPS growth with margin decline still in the cards.
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http://research.maybank-ib.com/pdf/docum...3_5124.pdf

KE missed the boat so they try to sink it??

desmondxyz Wrote:KE missed the boat so they try to sink it??

The best way to make use of analyst report, is to focus on facts, rather on the conclusion.

IMO, the report is more on timing of market, with a short time view. I view it as there are still chance to buy if you miss the boat previously.