Fraser & Neave (F & N)

so what happens if the new owner places out a small portion so that the free float is just > 10% (so e.g. 10.5%) and then sometime later comes back with a delisting offer of let's say $5? (and suppose they miraculously manage to convince the recipients of the placement to sell back the placement shares?)

will the remaining minority shareholders have a way out?

This is unlikely to happen as it implies his investments in F&N will be written down by almost 50% (in view that he is the major shareholder).

If this happens, he is destroying his wealth not creating one.

It would be a massive coup if he succeeds though. The write down, if any, is only a paper revaluation as he still owns all of F&N and he can simply separately revalue the F&N assets back to their respective fair value.

Well, better review the F&N story, since sifu seems not agreeable

My post-APIPL valuation of F&N was around $8.50-$9.00, base on assumptions of PB 1 and PE 15, conservative estimation of post-APIPL net profit and excess cash of $2.8 per share (or $4 billion out of $4.8 billion disposal gain). With the price of $8, there is ~10% margin of safety, and likelihood of pleasant surprises from Charoen, hopefully...

The F&N story seems remain relevant IMO, at least as of now...

YMMV

(24-04-2013, 11:01 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: My post-APIPL valuation of F&N was around $8.50-$9.00, base on assumptions of PB 1 and PE 15, conservative estimation of post-APIPL net profit and excess cash of $2.8 per share (or $4 billion out of $4.8 billion disposal gain). With the price of $8, there is ~10% margin of safety, and likelihood of pleasant surprises from Charoen, hopefully...

Short term tikam looks ok. Current sell down looks like one of the special situation described by Joel Greenblat where Index Funds are forced to sell (at whatever price) as F&N will be removed as a component stock for the Index their fund is based on. So, let's see what happens from tomorrow onwards for learning purpose..

With so much cash in hand, the likelihood of a Special Dividend is also very high. The majority shareholder is likely to be equally motivated to have the free cash to pay down their debts (used for this G.O.).

Longer term, will need more detailed analysis and that's where folks like you who'd done their analysis will be able to gain an advantage.

(24-04-2013, 11:53 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(24-04-2013, 11:01 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: My post-APIPL valuation of F&N was around $8.50-$9.00, base on assumptions of PB 1 and PE 15, conservative estimation of post-APIPL net profit and excess cash of $2.8 per share (or $4 billion out of $4.8 billion disposal gain). With the price of $8, there is ~10% margin of safety, and likelihood of pleasant surprises from Charoen, hopefully...

Short term tikam looks ok. Current sell down looks like one of the special situation described by Joel Greenblat where Index Funds are forced to sell (at whatever price) as F&N will be removed as a component stock for the Index their fund is based on. So, let's see what happens from tomorrow onwards for learning purpose..

With so much cash in hand, the likelihood of a Special Dividend is also very high. The majority shareholder is likely to be equally motivated to have the free cash to pay down their debts (used for this G.O.).

Longer term, will need more detailed analysis and that's where folks like you who'd done their analysis will be able to gain an advantage.

Exactly... the reference is from Joel Greenblat. It is an asset play at the moment, base on Peter Lynch definition.

Yes, special dividend is almost certain IMO, the question is the term of the distribution, as share cancellation (as proposed before), or simply cash.

What a close!

At 5pm, the low was $7.85, reached earlier at ~4pm and it'd slowly recovered to $8.09. My fingers got itchy when I saw the 5pm matching starting at $7.71.. before it finally matched at $7.81. Guess there were a lot of Index Funds doing their selling literally at the very last minute! I wonder if any will do their selling tomorrow...

For the record,

Vol = 39,516,000
Range $7.81 to $8.23
Open $8.10
Close $7.81

(24-04-2013, 05:13 PM)KopiKat Wrote: What a close!

At 5pm, the low was $7.85, reached earlier at ~4pm and it'd slowly recovered to $8.09. My fingers got itchy when I saw the 5pm matching starting at $7.71.. before it finally matched at $7.81. Guess there were a lot of Index Funds doing their selling literally at the very last minute! I wonder if any will do their selling tomorrow...

For the record,

Vol = 39,516,000
Range $7.81 to $8.23
Open $8.10
Close $7.81

Ya, huge selling at the very last second, starting with a 42 lot order that push the price down to $7.81.

Bot 2 lots at $7.98 in the afternoon.

(24-04-2013, 05:36 PM)LionFlyer Wrote:

(24-04-2013, 05:13 PM)KopiKat Wrote: What a close!

At 5pm, the low was $7.85, reached earlier at ~4pm and it'd slowly recovered to $8.09. My fingers got itchy when I saw the 5pm matching starting at $7.71.. before it finally matched at $7.81. Guess there were a lot of Index Funds doing their selling literally at the very last minute! I wonder if any will do their selling tomorrow...

For the record,

Vol = 39,516,000
Range $7.81 to $8.23
Open $8.10
Close $7.81

Ya, huge selling at the very last second, starting with a 42 lot order that push the price down to $7.81.

Bot 2 lots at $7.98 in the afternoon.

Yes, there is huge transactions during pre-close session.

(24-04-2013, 11:53 AM)KopiKat Wrote: With so much cash in hand, the likelihood of a Special Dividend is also very high. The majority shareholder is likely to be equally motivated to have the free cash to pay down their debts (used for this G.O.).

... and also possibly to help pay the bid for his next takeover target: Thailand's Charoen May Counterbid for Siam Makro