Olam International

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(29-11-2012, 11:13 AM)mobo Wrote: The one thing this whole drama thought me is that many of the so call fundamental analyst know much less than they think they know.

Forget about who is actually more correct, just read through the wealth of information from Muddy & Olam. How many of the so call Olam experts/analyst actually thought of 1/4 of the stuff that is mentioned in both reports before that?

I use to think all this analyst know a lot with their fancy PDF and nicely done reports. Then I got to know 2 ex-analyst (1 from a foreign bank, the other a local brokerage) now working in my company. Being interested in investing, I tried to pick their brains and realise they don't know much at all. From what I gather their jobs seem to be attending IR roadshows, result concalls, organized site visits and plucking in numbers to some standard template in their company and out pops a report.

I venture to say that a lot of brothers here know more than them and I learn much more here than from those 2 and the various reports my broker send me. These guys talk a good show with polished language and finance jargon, but strip that out the understanding of business dynamics is mushy at best.

It's the way of the finance industry.

One of the important lessons for me is to stick to easy-to-understand businesses. You don't get special recognition if you successfully long/short Olam (unless in MW case!) because the same returns can be done with a relatively lesser effort on another simpler company.
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OCBC Investment Research on Olam International Limited (Olam)
VALUE AROUND S$1.23; MAINTAIN HOLD
• Tone likely less risk-on
• Near-term volatility remains
• Value around S$1.23

After MW comment, the valuation "depreciated" from previous valuation of $1.80, without any major changes in business operation, company strategy and debt structure.

Analyst report seems following Mr. Market mood and equally un-predictable Big Grin
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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Olam CEO on CNBC

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000132149&play=1
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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Two insiders (directors) bought 200 lots each from open market with prices of $1.55 and $1.545 per share respectively.
`
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...5002B7211/$file/FORM1_Robert_Tomlin.pdf?openelement

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...5002B3063/$file/FORM1_Michael_Lim.pdf?openelement

Does it a serve as strong indicator to shareholders that nothing to worry about?

or it is not strong enough? Big Grin
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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Muddy Water is betting too much of their reputation on this. It is difficult to build a reputation on their call on Sino-Forest. But is it worth possibly damaging their hard-built reputation with Olam?

Just as Muddy Water claimed that Olam is a complicated business, why would they think that they have just spent a few months on a complicated company to have a good probabilities of strengthening their reputation?

To me, Muddy Water is not very wise on making this call.
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(29-11-2012, 06:22 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Two insiders (directors) bought 200 lots each from open market with prices of $1.55 and $1.545 per share respectively.
`
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...5002B7211/$file/FORM1_Robert_Tomlin.pdf?openelement

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...5002B3063/$file/FORM1_Michael_Lim.pdf?openelement

Does it a serve as strong indicator to shareholders that nothing to worry about?

or it is not strong enough? Big Grin
S$310,000 only. Not even a peanut's worth according to Goh's wife.
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(29-11-2012, 11:36 PM)Bibi Wrote:
(29-11-2012, 06:22 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Two insiders (directors) bought 200 lots each from open market with prices of $1.55 and $1.545 per share respectively.
`
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...5002B7211/$file/FORM1_Robert_Tomlin.pdf?openelement

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...5002B3063/$file/FORM1_Michael_Lim.pdf?openelement

Does it a serve as strong indicator to shareholders that nothing to worry about?

or it is not strong enough? Big Grin
S$310,000 only. Not even a peanut's worth according to Goh's wife.

Many directors are terrible at business valuations.. buying of shares dont imply much. It may even reflect how stupid they are should olam report mediocre results in the next few years
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Management said Olam do not need to tap the capital market for fund within 5 months.
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
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Muddy Waters Offers to Pay for Olam Debt Rating
Published: November 29, 2012

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/resea...bt-rating/ [Report]

(Not Vested)
Disclaimer: Please feel free to correct any error in my post. I am not liable for anything. Do your own research and analysis. I do NOT give buy or sell calls and stock tips. Buy and sell at your risk. I am not a qualified financial adviser so I do not give any advice. The postings reflects my own personal thoughts which may or may not be accurate.
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ernst&young must be cursing and swearing now.
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