The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

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Dow, Gold top danger

14th May: The Dow is sitting on good support but in danger of topping if that support fails. A close at 12,600 or lower could see a fall back to the 11,000 region. Europe has further to fall. The Eurostoxx50 has no good support before 2,000. EEM, the emerging markets etf, also has further to fall. Hongkong's Hang Seng Index is on good support, as is the Straights Times Index of Singapore. Oil has broken support. There is no good support for WTI crude before $93. Gold is in danger of topping. A fall below 1,550 would give a target of 1,200.


http://www.asiachart.com/update.html
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Dear Sir, from your point of view, will this be a better time to look at corporate bond? Any recommendation Thanks
I was considering Gold but with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger coming out to speak against holding it, it kinda deters me from investing. They are right that Gold is non-productive but I was expecting more devaluations and printing of money around the world. Well nevertheless, Gold seems to be pointing to a fall and towards US$1200 now....May or may not happen...

My guess is that the fall in stock market might be sharp. Some stocks if you look with a 1-2 year time frame looks good now and would even be better if it falls further and the returns you get is definitely much much higher than bonds. Cash might be king now and while holding cash might give zero returns, it allows you to take part in a firesale when there is blood on the streets. My 2 cents worth.


World edges closer to deflationary slump as money contracts in China
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...China.html




(14-05-2012, 02:32 PM)Eastman1448 Wrote: Dear Sir, from your point of view, will this be a better time to look at corporate bond? Any recommendation Thanks
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Dow 100,000? One Analyst Says It May Happen
Published: Monday, 14 May 2012 | 6:07 AM ET Text Size By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News

Doom and gloom are everywhere at the moment. Greece, a slowdown in China, and fears over the U.S. economy are rampant, but an analyst who is hardly one of the market’s great optimists is predicting the Dow could hit 100,000.

Having gone back to the Great Depression to look for examples of major bull markets, Philippe Gijsels, the head of fixed income research and marketing at BNP Paribas Fortis, has come to a rather startling conclusion due to the amount of money being pumped into markets by the world’s leading central banks.

“If central banks continue to inject football field after football field into the markets and the economy, could this in the long-run lead to anything else than inflation? Or are the injections just enough to compensate for the massive deleveraging in the financial sector and with the over indebted American consumer? Time will as always tell,” Gijsels said on Monday.

“This being said, what is certain is that we are looking at the largest financial experiment in history. An experiment of which nobody can really guestimate the consequences. There is simply no point of reference” Gijsels said in an interview with CNBC.com.

Up until now, Gijsels has been working on the assumption that a new structural long-term bull market can begin only once the world has rid itself of its mountains of debt.

He has gone back to four key periods in history to try to understand how the great deleveraging might affect stock prices.

“If we go back to the beginning of 20th Century, we can distinguish four long-term periods. And I will not call them a winter, a spring, a summer and an autumn. First there was the period after the big crash of 1929 until the end of the Second World War. What we are looking at here is a period during which there was literally no progress made,” said Gijsels. “After that, we had the period of rebuilding after the war and the ‘golden sixties’ that saw the Dow Jones [Industrial Average] increase 10-fold over a period of 22 years.”

Up next came the 70’s, with their soaring inflation and oil crisis, leading to over a decade of sleepy returns for the Dow before the good times returned.


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“At the end of the period, 1982, the Dow stood at 1,000, the same level as at the beginning in 1966. In real terms the performance was even worse, as high inflation levels made for a very negative real return,” Gijsels said.

Then we got the strongest bull market in history, from 1982 until 2000, when the internet bubble burst with a vengeance.

“From 1982 until the speculative internet top of 2000, the good old Dow went up more than 13-fold,” said Gijsels who is beginning to think something similar could happen again.

“Since 2000, market performance has been hit by a series of crises, which are in fact all one and the same crisis, namely a debt crisis. The consequence of the fact that there is just too much debt in the system. Each time when central banks inject liquidity through rate cuts, quantitative easing or [Long Term Refinancing Operations] we see a brief rally, which just as quickly falters as the pickup in growth proves unsustainable.”

The bad news is that we are still a long way from the current crisis ending. But when it does, Gijsels said, there could be massive returns for investors.

“For if history were once again to repeat itself and stock markets would once again see a 10-fold increase over a period of 25 years, the next magical figure of 100,000 for the Dow could come into sight. It sounds spectacular. However, this is the move that we have already seen twice over the last 80 years,” said Gijsels.

“A large part of the move could be accumulated though the magic of multiple compounding. Another part through the less magical phenomenon that we call inflation. To move 10-fold in 20 years we would need 12.2 percent on an annual basis in nominal terms,” he said.

“This looks like a lot, but it is doable. All this of courses under the assumption that the dragons that haunt us can be slain over the next couple of years and that the West succeeds more or less to keep its position in the world,” said Gijsels.

“Otherwise we should maybe do this exercise for the Bovespa, Sensex or, why not, Chinese market. Quite a number of challenges lie ahead in the coming months and years,” he said.

“However, to not believe in progress and human inventiveness would be really pessimistic…”

© 2012 CNBC.com
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47409660
S&P top breakout
http://www.connect.facebook.com/photo.ph...e=1&ref=nf

Dow Jones top breaks
http://www.connect.facebook.com/photo.ph...e=1&ref=nf




(20-04-2012, 11:35 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: The title of this thread is inspiring and coincidence.....a day passed hence one day less to sell................companies would do well if they prepared sandbags(share buyback) for example to stop the flood(price fall). Not that these sandbags could stop the flood but it is better than being caught unprepared.......Angry
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China Real Estate Unravels
http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/05...-unravels/
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Should happen soon....plus QE3....not the time to short the market.....But this rally would not last long because fundamentally the problems are not solved but postponed....

Global banks see market rally on Greek exit
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finan...-exit.html
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女股神刘央抛出23亿港元买股 霸气高呼越跌越买
http://business.sohu.com/20120517/n343424396.shtml
(hee hee she will be spinning conspiracy stories soon....)

Mauldin: One Recession Away a Bull Market
http://online.wsj.com/video/mauldin-one-...58764.html

(29-01-2012, 03:27 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: Lost her nerves............

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/markets...-year.html
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Paul Krugman on Euro Rescue Efforts
http://www.spiegel.de/international/busi...34566.html
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So where will he find the money to finance his €23.5bn bail-out of Bankia, a bank deemed healthy just weeks ago? The Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) has €5.3bn, and other banks to worry about. It would be ruinous to tap the bond markets. Spanish 10-year yields are already at danger levels of 6.4pc. The spread over German Bunds has reached a post-EMU high of 514 basis points.


Spain's Rajoy fights losing battle to stave off EU rescue
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...escue.html

The End of the Euro: A Survivor’s Guide
http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/05...ors-guide/

Meanwhile, Back at the Ranch
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/th...ranch.aspx
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