Singapore Press Holdings (SPH)

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(17-04-2012, 03:02 PM)Drizzt Wrote: paragon - 2.6bil value
clementi -300mil value
cash and short term investment - 1 bil value
long term investment -443 mil (i didnt know the break down)
10 years of newspaper and magainzes - 2600mil
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liabilities 1.6 bil
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estimated value - 5.3 bil
outstanding shares - 1.6 bil
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estimated value per share - $3.33

hope my off hand values are close

Base on the latest valuation which is on Aug 2011, the paragon is 2.3 Bil and Clementi Mall is 60% of 590 Mils = 354 Mils

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

How do you get "10 years of newspaper and magainzes - 2600mil"? By DCF?

My estimation is S$4.1-S4.2, but i might be wrong.
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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i based on any cash, subsidiaries, the retail assets prevailing value.

for the newspaper and magazine, the true value could be how much cashflow the assets can generate. in that case its the present value of 340 mil for 10 years with a rough 6% discount rate.
Dividend Investing and More @ InvestmentMoats.com
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Closed @ $3.94, +4ct. STI = 2986.59, -5.53

No matter how many times I've seen it, I continue to be amazed by people's willingness to pay a lot more cents to buy SPH during the twice a year dividend periods. The rest of the time, they must be fearfully waiting for the newspaper biz to drop to zero circulation. Tongue

Yes, $3.9x region now, will patiently wait to to see when (whether) to sell, before xd date. STI, give me a sign... Big Grin
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
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i am selling bit by bit @ any price $3.97 and above. Never mind, i make less. Can always buy back ma, before Christmas. NO? i sold 1 batch @ 3.89 sometimes ago. Who knew then Market heads North so fast instead of South.TongueBig Grin
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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for info, SPH has hit the "sell" price for part-timers blue chip traders.. Tongue
sold mine liao, 7++% yield in pocket for 2012, be safe, not sorry... hope to collect more after XD at "buy" price and repeat for Nov 2012! Big Grin
hopefully can hit 14% yield! Big Grin

Mr Market is weird! Big Grin
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR! 
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL! 
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(18-04-2012, 09:16 AM)brattzz Wrote: for info, SPH has hit the "sell" price for part-timers blue chip traders.. Tongue
sold mine liao, 7++% yield in pocket for 2012, be safe, not sorry... hope to collect more after XD at "buy" price and repeat for Nov 2012! Big Grin
hopefully can hit 14% yield! Big Grin

Mr Market is weird! Big Grin

As xd is on 7-May and market appear not as fearful, we have the luxury of 2 weeks to play with.

If we take a closer look at their latest figures, I'm proposing that we classify SPH as a Low Growth Stock (promote from No Growth) with effect from Feb-12 quarter. This will only last for 1 year max.

My justification - Clementi Mall full contribution just started ie. On a y-o-y basis, I see a Revenue Growth of 4% and Net Profit Growth of 16%. This is likely Net of +ve contribution from Exhibitions and -ve ones from declining Core Paper biz. The chances of y-on-y growth for the next 3 Quarters are high.

As such, I'm proposing we shift the Buy-Sell Band accordingly. A 4% (let's be conservative and use Revenue Growth rather than Net Profit Growth) shift means $3.6x/$3.9x becomes $3.7x/$4.0x (we'll also watch the next Quarter results closely to tweak this if required). This will of course be negated if STI should drop by 10% (I anyhow pluck from the air). In such an event, we'll have to gaze at the crystal ball to come up with a new band. Tongue
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
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ok noted! Big Grin

when market is buying, sell... when market is selling, buy... Tongue
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR! 
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL! 
Reply
(20-04-2012, 12:44 PM)KopiKat Wrote: As xd is on 7-May and market appear not as fearful, we have the luxury of 2 weeks to play with.

If we take a closer look at their latest figures, I'm proposing that we classify SPH as a Low Growth Stock (promote from No Growth) with effect from Feb-12 quarter. This will only last for 1 year max.

My justification - Clementi Mall full contribution just started ie. On a y-o-y basis, I see a Revenue Growth of 4% and Net Profit Growth of 16%. This is likely Net of +ve contribution from Exhibitions and -ve ones from declining Core Paper biz. The chances of y-on-y growth for the next 3 Quarters are high.

As such, I'm proposing we shift the Buy-Sell Band accordingly. A 4% (let's be conservative and use Revenue Growth rather than Net Profit Growth) shift means $3.6x/$3.9x becomes $3.7x/$4.0x (we'll also watch the next Quarter results closely to tweak this if required). This will of course be negated if STI should drop by 10% (I anyhow pluck from the air). In such an event, we'll have to gaze at the crystal ball to come up with a new band. Tongue

The other thing is, when I first described this possible 'sell-before-xd' approach for 'die-die-must-have' shareholders of SPH many, many pages back, one pre-condition was, 'there must be fear in the market'. Today, I don't see that 'fear' in the market, as compared to the previous xd on 8-Dec-11. This means there's a very high chance that come xd, it may not 'over-react' and drop a lot more than the Div = 7ct this time round. At most, maybe 2-3ct more? ie. may not be worth the 2-way transaction charges involved for the die-hard SPH supporter. So, I may not sell mine unless it goes up a lot more... Getting greedy.. Hee.. Danger signs... Big Grin
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
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See.. that's what happens when I get greedy. Ended up closing today -7ct ie. xd price! Tongue
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
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well... if u bet based on sentiments.... sometimes it happens lah... Big Grin

SPH continues to be one of the stable dividends counter, will collect after XD.. Tongue
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR! 
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL! 
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