Micro-Mechanics (Holdings)

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Rainbow 
Thank you all the fools for your constant report on Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Pte Ltd.

This is just an extract on past 52 weeks reports.
Thank you very much.
We are forever in debt to your contribution.
Thank you.

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12/10/2019 Marathon Under Two Hours 



Chris is a life-long competitive runner.
Together with Low Ming Wah and Chow Kam Wing, they set up a highly competitive company in a highly competitive industry.

Their results tells that they are successful.

One of the key attribute cited by MM is the important of human resources.
      Core Values - PERFECT
People Make Everything Happen!
Excellence - everyone, everywhere, everytime
Respect and trust
Fairness and Integrity
Explore and experiment
Continuous improvement"
Transparency, metrics and accountability

We would assume that being strong leaders means everything will be driven from the top.
When MM University was form, a lot of time was spend on the training materials.
A good training materials will ensure that employee knows exactly what to do when a situation arised.

Then the training materials evolved and become the actual SOP.
Every employee could and should refers to the training materials and take necessary actions.

Then MM University evolved, it's no longer about training or training classes.
It's about empowering the employee to make decision - make big decision at their level.
These become part of MM culture and every employee has the capability to adjust their work 
for higher customer satisfaction, lower cost and producing faster and better products.

It's a culture that Build To Last!
I love it!
Heart 

Do you?

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感恩 
Thanks all valuebuddies for helping me in my investment journey.
I learn a lot from you.
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Rainbow 
With the official shutting down of fools in SG, valuebuddies will loss another excellent tips to own a stock for life.
With a heavy heart, I thank fools again for helping me in Micro-Mechanics.

Thank you.


Good morning Valuebuddies.
Last night, AGM meeting minutes was published and it's an excellent read for those who wanted to learn more on the semicon industry and in particular Micro-Mechanics.
(click here to read Micro-Mechanics AGM released last night)

A lots of questions were raised and 5G is clearly the #1 hit.

Partly due to lack of understanding of Micro-Mechanics products, valuebuddies repeatedly asking which part of Micro-Mechanics is found in the 5G product chain eg. handphone?

This sounds very familiar to me as I had answered that nothing aka none of Micro-Mechanics products were used in the handphone (nor IoT devices).

Due to time constraints, kindly watch the following video and we could discuss more later.
Think, think about printer and printing process.
Bear in mind that we always says Micro-Mechanics product is a consumables.
Watch the video and we shall learn a bit more on how Micro-Mechanics consumables contributions in 5G.


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Good morning valuebuddies.
What a fantastic feeling - waking up by the the chirping birds in the woods.
The cool 21 degree air is a nice and especially welcomed in Singapore.
Hope everyone had a good day ahead.

Everyone should just click and read the latest AGM meeting minutes for  a start.
(FY19 Micro-Mechanics AGM NOM)

By reading karlmax posts here and also the AGM minutes, I suddenly realised that it's true that not many people understand MM's business.
It's clear that without a good grasp of MM's business, it's difficult to fully appreciate how and why MM is so successful in it's little niche area. Lack alone anticipating how MM could benefit from future technology trends such as 5G.

Let me apologies for being too cryptic in sharing MM's business.
Let's try again.

To answer the questions of 5G impacting MM's business, we need to understand what's MM's products and how is it use in the high tech manufacturing industry.

Both Christopher and myself worked in HP.
HP is well know for many IT business and if you zoom into it's fast selling products, a glaring BU splunk right up on the top.
No prize in guessing - printer.

Again, if you look into the printer production line, there are 2 distinct offering:
1. Printer (itself)
2. Print cartridge

Zoom down further into the financial performance of these 2 product line, clearly the cashcow is in #2 despite the well know #1 brand name.

Let me repeat, the print cartridge earns a extremely high margin and cashflow comparing to the actual printer (itself).
In another word, the printer is selling at cost (or sometime below cost), just to make sure that customer will continue to buy it's print cartridge.
This strategy is fairly well known.
For example, legendary d.o.g. shared in SPH thread that there is a need for the news to make a loss in order for advertisement to bring in the money.

Similarly, for the case of printer, printer is selling cheap in order for the customer to bring home the printer.
The printer usually comes with a cartridge of small amount of ink aka the customer will need to buy a new ink cartridge soon.
The ink cartridge usually will be selling at a reasonably price (but with a huge profit margins).
Again, once the ink is depleted, the customer will needs to buy a new ink cartridge.
In this case, the ink cartridge is also know as a consumable aka it got consumed as you use the printer.

Let's come back to Micro-Mechanics.
The equivalent of printer in our high tech manufacturing is called Capital Equipment.
These Capital equipment will be purchased at the beginning when the manufacturing plant is set up.
There are typically 2 phases:
1. Front end aka creation of chips from wafer
2. Back end aka assembly of chips into electronic products eg chips in cell phone

Micro-mechanics provided (manufactured) custom/critical parts needed by the capital equipment in the Front end process.
Front end process is the one that you see on video with operators wearing white coats, clean room etc.
Intel, AMD, etc comes into picture.
Got it?

This particular product line from MM is the parts that fixed (used) onto the capital equipment (machine/robot) as part of manufacturing process.  It does not "become" part of end product aka did not become part of the chips.


The BU that provided the Front end - critical part piece in MM is also known as CMA.

The second part of MM product is used in the Back end process in particular test & assembly.
In this case, MM provided miniature attachments to the capital equipment(eg. robot)
Let's picture this.
The robot is a printer.
The robot hand can be attached to different type of tools (similar to a printer cartridge attached to a printer).
The reason the robot hand can be attached to different tools is because the same robot can have many applications (similar to a printer can have different ink cartridges).

Sometime, the robot hand is use to pickup a electronic parts using pickup tool from Micro-Mechanics.
Sometime, the robot hand is use to cut wire using cutter from Micro-Mechanics.

Of course, Micro-Mechanics does not supply the electronic parts nor the wire, Micro-Mechanics only supply the pickup tools and cutters.

Got my point?

Just be clear, at the end of the process, Micro-Mechanics does not have any parts(products) that fixed (or deposited) on the electronic product.  It's just a tools that attached to the robot hand, so that the robot can (for example) pick up the chips and place it onto the circuit board.

Got it?

Ok, if Micro-Mechanics parts does not use in the end product, how could we call it consumable?  In the case of Printer, the ink is used up and the customer will need to buy another ink cartridge, that's why the ink cartridge is called a consumable.  The pick up tools that Micro-Mechanics is not a consumable. The chips that put into the circuit board is a consumable.

Well, you're right.
The chips is used up and I agrees that it's a consumable (I might be wrong thou, but I just wanted to agree with you and move onto my point, got it?)

However, do take note that the pick up tools will be worn out after repeated use.
After a while these pick up tools will need to be change in order for the robot to operate.

In fact, in a high precision manufacturing environment, we do not allow the pick up tools to be worn out then start to replace them.
We need the equipment to operate at optimum throughput with zero tolerance of error.
Quality is very important and high tech precision means that the margin provided for error is extremely small.
A small defects will cause a large damage to the end electronic product.

These pickup tools will be calibrated carefully and only use for a number of time before change to a new one.

This is why even thou MM's product does not end up as consumable on the electronic product but because it needs to be changed frequently that it's called consumable.

With this, enjoy:




Thanks Christopher.
I'm glad to see that you're back to action.
I read your first book many years ago and I believed that you're one of the early guru who shaped my thinking process.
Wish you success in your new venture and I am forever in debt to your kind sharing.
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(24-11-2019, 08:36 AM)¯|_(ツ)_/¯ Wrote: Good morning valuebuddies.
What a fantastic feeling - waking up by the the chirping birds in the woods.
The cool 21 degree air is a nice and especially welcomed in Singapore.
Hope everyone had a good day ahead.

Everyone should just click and read the latest AGM meeting minutes for a start.
(FY19 Micro-Mechanics AGM NOM)

By reading karlmax posts here and also the AGM minutes, I suddenly realised that it's true that not many people understand MM's business.
It's clear that without a good grasp of MM's business, it's difficult to fully appreciate how and why MM is so successful in it's little niche area. Lack alone anticipating how MM could benefit from future technology trends such as 5G.

Hi ¯|_()_/¯
 
Thanks for the elaboration, I appreciate the effort. Perhaps it’s just me, but I still have no idea what Micro-Mechanics’ products are after reading through the lengthy write up on printers and robot hands.
 
Through the HP printers analogy, I understand you are trying to say MM is in the business of selling fast moving consumables which are high margin just like print cartridges, but to chip manufacturers instead. However for the rest of us who are not familiar with the chip manufacturing process, can you do us a favour by explaining in layman’s terms what exactly are these “pickup tools” and how are they used to support the manufacturing equipment?
 
As MM products are technical as opposed to intuitive consumer products like a printer, an analogy to make a point on high margin and niche while useful for pitching an investment case, doesn’t quite help the rest of us (at least myself) understand what exactly the “product” is. From what I can read on the website, MM products are mostly small little pieces of metal/rubber objects that look like drill bits, would you be able to just take one of the products as an example and share with us what part it plays in the manufacturing process?
 
Thank you.
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(25-11-2019, 10:35 AM)mobo Wrote: Hi ¯|_()_/¯
 
Thanks for the elaboration, I appreciate the effort. Perhaps it’s just me, but I still have no idea what Micro-Mechanics’ products are after reading through the lengthy write up on printers and robot hands.
 
Through the HP printers analogy, I understand you are trying to say MM is in the business of selling fast moving consumables which are high margin just like print cartridges, but to chip manufacturers instead. However for the rest of us who are not familiar with the chip manufacturing process, can you do us a favour by explaining in layman’s terms what exactly are these “pickup tools” and how are they used to support the manufacturing equipment?
 
As MM products are technical as opposed to intuitive consumer products like a printer, an analogy to make a point on high margin and niche while useful for pitching an investment case, doesn’t quite help the rest of us (at least myself) understand what exactly the “product” is. From what I can read on the website, MM products are mostly small little pieces of metal/rubber objects that look like drill bits, would you be able to just take one of the products as an example and share with us what part it plays in the manufacturing process?
 
Thank you.

Actually you accidentally give a better comparison using drill bits than the original printer one which was very distracting.

It is the same as concept of drill. For eg if you attach a drill bit you can use to drill different kinds of holes, if you attach a screw bit it can become a screw driver for different screws, if you attach a saw it become good for cutting different shape etc etc.

Same concept you have a robot installed at the line, but the same robot can do a lot of things depending on what you attach to it. If you attach a pick-up it can lift, rotate, flip, displace items. If you attach a dispenser it can start injecting something somewhere, if you attach a solder it will start to burn stuff and if you attach a ejector it can poke the die.

All this kind of attachments for the machines is what micro mech is making & selling and like drill bits they will wear and tear and need to be replaced after a while. Manufacturers will stock up in anticipation of a semicon upturn when they buy new machines or ramp up current production and run down inventory when they see demand slowing.

That is why micro mech cycle is usually earlier than the main semicon manufacturing industry. Micro mech starts to pick up when main semicon decline decelerate and then downturn when main semicon growth starts slowing as they approach peak.
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Rainbow 
Thanks Mobo. 
I agrees that your drill bits is a better analogy than my printer.
Heart

Thanks again. Based on my understanding, your 2 questions will be:
Q1: What is the Chip Manufacturing process? Where is Micro-Mechanics products e.g. pickup tools used?
Q2: Give another example of where Micro-Mechanics small little pieces of metal/rubber objects is use?

Let me gives a disclaimer:
1. I am vested in Micro-Mechanics and my answers will be biased.
2. I am still learning and my answers will not always be correct. However, I will make sure I think twice to be factual before I post.
3. Micro-Mechanics stocks is not cheap. Even when both KSIR and myself brought it at 40+cents, it's price was 30% higher than it's NTA.




Q1: What is the Chip Manufacturing process? Where is Micro-Mechanics products e.g. pickup tools used?


The following video summaries the chip manufacturing industry/process.
Although it's a very old video, the context does not change aka despite the miniaturization of electronic components, the steps remain the same (if not similar).
You must click and watch the video, now:


Paused. 
In the beginning of video, reason were given on why Semiconductor will be a common part of our daily activities.
These use-case remains relevant today.
Generally, the process of melting silicon to become computer/RAM chips remains essentially the same.

Now, if you could scroll back the video to 8:18,
set the video play speed to the slowest 0.25 and switch of the sound.

8:18 - 8:20 The wafer was cut into small pieces also known as a die
8:20 - 8:28 The die or dices (plural) was pickup from the cut wafer onto a substrate (for example)

If you study 8:20 - 8:28 carefully, you will noticed at 8:21 a picker(metallic color) with a rubbertip(black color)  is pressed on the die. 
At 8:22, the die was pickup and placed onto a substrate (8:23).
That was one type of manufacturing equipment that using Micro-Mechanics products.
The black color rubbertip that attached to the picker will need to be change after frequent use because of wear-and-tear.

Similarly, from 8:24 - 8:27, small little pieces of metal/rubber objects that look like drill bits will be use at the tip of the robot to perform various tasks .... 
Note that this is done at the end stage of the semiconductor process.
(highlight - this is very important. some point in time, we will discuss this formed part of Micro-Mechanics moat).


Q2: Give another example of where Micro-Mechanics small little pieces of metal/rubber objects is use?
The following video is still on "die attached" aka the terminology that describe pickup from a cut wafer to some substrate.
(click to watch "die attached" video"

Are you able to spot the rubbertips?
(click to watch another application of pickup tools - die sorting)

Hope that you enjoyed the video. 
Wink
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Rainbow 
Good morning Valuebuddies.
The weather is cooling and hope that everyone is chilled too.

Micro-Mechanics products are mainly made from raw materials such as aluminium, steel, rubbers etc.
Take note that these raw materials are commonly available and selling real cheap.
 
However, do note that Micro-Mechanics is depending on some special materials such as vespel for in order to create a drill bits for high temperature and high performance usage.

And, of course, we know that the size of semicon/chips is getting smaller and smaller and increasingly more difficult.
For example, a pickup tool should be build with high purity and cleanliness materials as even a small electrostatic discharge could destroy the chips immediately.
Micro-Mechanics will need to develop new and alternative materials in order to handle 10-nanometer and below geometries.
Also, more expensive equipment, will need to be purchase in order to manufacture increasingly miniature parts too.

In summary, despite the cheap raw materials cost, it's increasing difficult to manufacture a good and reliable "drill-bits" to meet stringent customer requirements.


[Image: uc?id=0B_rJrOUj766BcWZGaXYxc1AtN3M]

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Rainbow 
Increasing Analyst Coverage on Micro-Mechanics - buying?

This week, there were 2 new detailed analysis of Micro Mechanics.

Note that Sudhan use printer and cartridge to illustrate Micro-Mechanics products are used as consumable parts and tools for Semi Conductor equipment.

Given more coverage, more valuebuddies should see the increasing investment merit of Micro-Mechanics as time go by.

For hardworking valuebuddies, read first hand directly from the source:
1. DBS -YONG Woon Bing "Spotlight on Semiconductor: Clear skies ahead"
(click for pdf)  **Scroll to page 49 for MM**
2. Seedy-Sudhan "1 Hidden Gem Listed On The Singapore Stock Market"
(click to Seedy webpage)


As a spirit of learning, let me present a few facts and then raise a few questions to deep dive into Micro-Mechanics (moat).

By now, we should already know that lots of valuebuddies worked in the IT industry.
So, let me use a famous charts used in PMP:
[Image: istock_8315206_coinsgraph1.jpg]
This diagram shows the increasing costs required to fixed bugs discovered in different stages of project.

Back to Micro-Mechanics.
Tips 1: Micro-Mechanics products are consumable.
Consumable has a few characteristics.
a. It need to be changed regularly due to wear and tear.
b. It is cheap (relatively to the machine/equipment that it attached to)
c. It is part of OpEx aka not CapEx.  When the machine is operating, consumable will be used.
d. When the economy crisis is looming aka factory expecting down-cycle, factory will stopped buying capital equipment. However, they will still continue to buy consumable despite expecting down-cycle. Granted, factory will buy smaller volume of consumable because of anticipated down-cycle, but importantly, so long as the production line is running, they will need to buy consumable.  Contrast to capital equipment, the buying will actually stopped (until factory perceived that there is a up-cycle)

Tips 2: Micro-Mechanics products are used in the late or final stage of the wafer to chips manufacturing process.


Question:
1. Why? despite Micro-Mechanics management repeatedly mentioned that Micro-Mechanics is in a cyclical business, it's revenue and profits does not seems to be adversely affected by the semi conductor down-cycle (as compare to other SGX listed company operating in Semi Conductor industry)?
2. Why? despite Micro-Mechanics being a manufacturer of consumable parts and tools, it does not faced strong competition?  
(Let me elaborate this question further. Being consumable, using common raw materials such as aluminum, steel and rubber, there are tons of small manufacturing companies which can produce the same/identical parts that Micro-Mechanics made.  Questions is thus, why non of these small manufacturing companies can replace Micro-Mechanics clear leadership position in Semi Conductor industry?)

Cheer up:


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Rainbow 
Are you excited about Micro-Mechanics products are consumable?

Consumable has a characteristics.
It should be a common items that many people used.
It's packaging should be quite standard and it should be cheap.

If we look into the product menu of Micro-Mechanics, there will be 3 categories:
1. Generic Standard product - can be used by many different capital equipment
2. Standard product for a particular capital equipment
3. Custom product - not available in product menu

It is thru standardisation that Micro-Mechanics can mass produce these parts and tools to drive down the cost.

Question is: if the parts were standard part aka material and dimensions is well defined, then what is stopping from competitors to mass produce these parts?
Of course, the question can be re-phase as follows:
What is preventing Micro-Mechanics customers from buying these standard parts from a cheaper supplier?




26 Nov CNA reported 4% surprise growth in Singapore Manufacturing Industries:
(click to read more)

What is love?


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Rainbow 
#1 Risk of Micro Mechanics is it's success

A lot of analyst highlight various risks of Micro-Mechanics.
Most of them concerns the cyclical nature of semi conductor industries, 
logistics issues due to china-US trade war etc.

These should be taken into consideration when buying Micro-Mechanics as these is something that is un-avoidable.
However, our 2nd level thinking tell us that management of Micro-Mechanics are fully aware of these risks since day 1.
They had and will continue to put in place measure to smoother the impact of these crisis for itself and it's customers.


At this moment, Micro-Mechanics has 600 customers and these includes all the global manufacturers in the chips manufacturing industry.

On of the risk raised by some valuebuddies is on it's customer concentration risks.
Is this a valid concern?

Micro-Mechanics products are standard consumable which is commonly use as critical parts and tools by all global chip manufacturers.


Page 110 of FY19 Annual Report gives the definition of Major customers:
Revenues of major customers (contributing more than 10% of total revenue from external customers of each segment)
of the reportable segments.

These segments is nothing but Micro-Mechanics five manufacturing plants.
- Four in Asia and one in USA.

Valuebuddies are encourage to dig out various years Annual Report and see it's customer trends.
We should be able to conclude that concentration risk is not only does not apply to Micro-Mechanics,
but also starting to appreciate how Micro-Mechanics builds it's relationship and trust with it's Major customer over the years.

Just an example, we all know that China is the largest contributors in term of revenue.
China factory alone contributed about 30% of Micro-Mechanics sales aka roughly $20m out of $60m revenue.

How many Major customers we had in China and what's the revenue?
The first question is easy.
- One.

Extracted the revenue of this Major customer revenue vs total revenue contributed by China factory:
FY16 $2,560,994 (total $13,782,893)
FY17 $2,260,970 (total $14,145,822)
FY18 $2,742,300 (total $17,359,087)
FY19 $2,778,927 (total $16,468,851)

A simple analysis shows that this Major customer (in the largest factory) contributed about 15%-20% of Micro-Mechanics largest factory.
If you compare it's contribution with Micro-Mechanics annual revenue in FY19 (Total: 60,330,946),
it's less than 5%.

On retrospect, it's true that in FY19, Micro-Mechanics Major customers contributed to $21,054,933 which is 34.90% of it's annual revenue.
The question is: 
Should this be a valid concern for customer concentration risk?


HTX:


Are you ready to embrace tech?

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