Sino Grandness

(28-07-2015, 10:25 AM)FA+TA Wrote:

I don't think he has ever said that. he is one of the big man who is against diversification -

'Keep all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket closely.'

'Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.'

(28-07-2015, 12:16 PM)boochap Wrote: I don't think he has ever said that. he is one of the big man who is against diversification -

'Keep all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket closely.'

'Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.'

I think you are right as I'm more familiar with the 2 quotes than the one in picture.

I goggled the picture to depict my intention as a picture is worth a thousands words. My intention is that if you have 5 counters, if you lost all in 1 counter, you need to achieve 25% profit to recoup back your 20% lost. If you have 10 counters, you need to achieve 11%. If you have small capital, it is best to have few counters but if your capital is big, you still need to diversify according to how many counters you are able to manage.

For big investors, they may follow the investment pyramid.
[Image: 2107_a.jpg]

I stumbled on a blog called investment sidekick and noticed that the author actually wrote on sino in 2013. Links for those interested:

https://investingsidekick.com/sino-grand...nvestment/
https://investingsidekick.com/more-on-sino-grandness/

Not vested and I avoid comment on the stock itself. Just information posting.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Financial results will be reported tomorrow. Will be interesting to see tithe cash flow statements.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Sino%20G...eID=364424

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Half%20Y...eID=364423


No mention about ipo....busted?

(12-08-2015, 05:33 PM)desmondxyz Wrote: http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Sino%20G...eID=364424

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Half%20Y...eID=364423


No mention about ipo....busted?

No updates about IPO (most likely no IPO); only updated regarding CBs:

"Subsequent to our announcement on 22 July 2015, the Company had concluded discussion with CB1 and CB2 bondholders who had agreed to the extension of the maturity date. We are in the process of finalizing the legal documentation.

In addition, the Company is currently in discussion with potential investors for funding on more favourable terms to further strengthen our financial position to support our business development and expansion. The Company will keep shareholders updated in due course."

What terrible results. No news on IPOD. No news on debt repayment whatsoever even after ~3 weeks.

Here are a few interesting red flags.
Cash burn was $122m RMB. Here is the breakdown:
Receivables rose $160m. Not a single reprieve in receivables since the IPO. Rose from 165 days in Q4 2014 to 198 days today. That is a 33 days in 6 months.
inventories rose $124m, albeit some will argue this ride is seasonal.
A good portion of the payables SinoG drew down was repaid. This shows SinoG has no leverage against its suppliers.
Even though the company recorded a 66m tax charge, the company paid 31.5m. This created a deferred tax liability line item. Will be interesting to see if this DTL will get paid down.
SG&A rose 65.2% against a 14.5% move in inventories.

I shorted some SinoG a day before the results because it was a highly asymmetric bet.

(12-08-2015, 08:50 PM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: What terrible results. No news on IPOD. No news on debt repayment whatsoever even after ~3 weeks.

Here are a few interesting red flags.
Cash burn was $122m RMB. Here is the breakdown:
Receivables rose $160m. Not a single reprieve in receivables since the IPO. Rose from 165 days in Q4 2014 to 198 days today. That is a 33 days in 6 months.
inventories rose $124m, albeit some will argue this ride is seasonal.
A good portion of the payables SinoG drew down was repaid. This shows SinoG has no leverage against its suppliers.
Even though the company recorded a 66m tax charge, the company paid 31.5m. This created a deferred tax liability line item. Will be interesting to see if this DTL will get paid down.
SG&A rose 65.2% against a 14.5% move in inventories.

I shorted some SinoG a day before the results because it was a highly asymmetric bet.

Hi Bluedogmeow

Question. How do you get the increase of $160m for receivables?

Thanks
Oldman.

See the cash flow statement. It is trade receivables + other receivables. It seems trade receivables are dropping of but other receivables are rising. Perhaps SinoG is trying to trick investors to thinking that they are monetising their working capital, but I would say....if it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably isn't a Cadillac.

(12-08-2015, 10:32 PM)Oldman9 Wrote:

(12-08-2015, 08:50 PM)BlueDogMeow Wrote: What terrible results. No news on IPOD. No news on debt repayment whatsoever even after ~3 weeks.

Here are a few interesting red flags.
Cash burn was $122m RMB. Here is the breakdown:
Receivables rose $160m. Not a single reprieve in receivables since the IPO. Rose from 165 days in Q4 2014 to 198 days today. That is a 33 days in 6 months.
inventories rose $124m, albeit some will argue this ride is seasonal.
A good portion of the payables SinoG drew down was repaid. This shows SinoG has no leverage against its suppliers.
Even though the company recorded a 66m tax charge, the company paid 31.5m. This created a deferred tax liability line item. Will be interesting to see if this DTL will get paid down.
SG&A rose 65.2% against a 14.5% move in inventories.

I shorted some SinoG a day before the results because it was a highly asymmetric bet.

Hi Bluedogmeow

Question. How do you get the value of $160m for receivables?

Thanks
Oldman.

Some thoughts on this earnings report. In short, I don't think it is as bad, there aren't any 'new negatives'.

1) On the CB. I feel that there enough details on the CB though. They presented numbers that can help investors appreciate the cost of borrowing though this funding avenue, particularly on how expensive the interest rates are compounding. "Liability component at amortised cost" component itself increased by RMB163 mil in half a year. Anyway, profits are growing faster...... But really, efforts to renegotiate for better terms are welcome

2) IPO . Now....this IPO was initially pitched to the CB investors, to entice them to lend at a time when it was difficult for them to get funding. Personally I think rushing the IPO of the subsidiary, at this stage where is growing fast, would be too early. As compared to later on when it is more mature and with scale, fetch better valuations. If these CB investors can be convinced of this, to wait and meanwhile accept better terms, then everyone comes out better off. I have no idea of negotiations behind the scene though, hope they revert soon.

3)questionable accounting Where?