China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings

(26-01-2015, 06:21 PM)mslee888 Wrote: New loan RMB30mill taken with Laishang Bank on 23 January 2015 for purposes of its working capital requirements.

This is a bit of a surprise. I thought they are more keen on paring down the outstanding loans.

No ready, if you look at the similar announcement on 23rd Sep, (http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CS_Discl...eID=315667), they have outstanding loan of rmb368M loan. So within this 3 month, in aggregate, they paid about rmb100M to now rmb268M loan. I think you can look at the new loan as roll over of existing loan. So this is goo development

At about this time in Sunsine previous 2 quarters, Sunsine gave out Positive Profit Alert. With the record high profit iwth increase in ASP in Q3, I was expecting more. When price of Aniline, the main raw materials dropped by 37% as Oil price drop, I was hoping for another record Q4. However, was disappointed to find out from China Research Company, Sublime China Information Group Co, that the price of accelerators have also dropped. It appears that rubber manufacturers have significant purchasing powers among all the sells, and they will not accelerators price to stay, when the raw material cost go down so much. So with price down, volume about the same since Sunsine is already running at full capacity, the Q4 profit is likely to be lower than Q3. If the market has expect higher profit, this may result in a drop in share price when Q4 result is announced. Be careful...

(26-01-2015, 07:34 PM)DCF Wrote: At about this time in Sunsine previous 2 quarters, Sunsine gave out Positive Profit Alert. With the record high profit iwth increase in ASP in Q3, I was expecting more. When price of Aniline, the main raw materials dropped by 37% as Oil price drop, I was hoping for another record Q4. However, was disappointed to find out from China Research Company, Sublime China Information Group Co, that the price of accelerators have also dropped. It appears that rubber manufacturers have significant purchasing powers among all the sells, and they will not accelerators price to stay, when the raw material cost go down so much. So with price down, volume about the same since Sunsine is already running at full capacity, the Q4 profit is likely to be lower than Q3. If the market has expect higher profit, this may result in a drop in share price when Q4 result is announced. Be careful...

The Q4 result, is likely the quarter, when ASP starts to "adjust" back to normal. I am also anticipating the dividend remains the same.

(not vested, and monitoring)

should fall back to ~30 cents level...since profits at such high level is unsustainable...

(27-01-2015, 08:56 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: should fall back to ~30 cents level...since profits at such high level is unsustainable...

A view base solely on price level? I reckon the only consideration is the last long term average price, right?

(not vested)

Ha...grandma or grandpa's view again?
Lets watch the upcoming results...even if earnings are to be normalised, why should it be 30ct?
I suggest grandma just focus on chip eng seng story...

(27-01-2015, 08:56 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: should fall back to ~30 cents level...since profits at such high level is unsustainable...

(27-01-2015, 08:56 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: should fall back to ~30 cents level...since profits at such high level is unsustainable...

Urh... Ok lah you are free to express your view, groundless, bias, subjective notwithstanding. I guess it's no harm as what really matter is when one divested, whether one has make a profit or loss. Anyone can say 30 cents, 40 cents, 50 cents or even $1 dollar. No value add at all.

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/sto...g-tbbs-fel

The nextinsight article shows that price of TBBS has remained almost unchanged. 
It also shows that in 4Q, accelerator revenue loss was likely to be offset by cheaper aniline. 

But what are the other raw materials?

After aniline, cyclohexylamine is the second most important raw material for making accelerators.
Page 56 of Sunsine’s IPO prospectus states that in 2006, cyclohexylamine formed 13.1% of direct material cost, a third of 37.8% for aniline.
As cyclohexylamine is produced from aniline( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclohexylamine), its price should have dropped too.

The writer for the 27 Jan article in NextInsight quoted prices for individual products sold by 山东斯递尔化工科技 for 2nd half of 2014, and used these prices to project the likely 4Q position for China Sunsine. As China Sunsine has not released its individual product prices in the past, it would be interesting to know the basis for assuming that it would be reasonable to use past product prices of another company. Wld appreciate it if the writer could share his assumptions with us. Thank you.