Is there any surprise about the low birth rate?

I saw a comment in another forum - it's a vicious cycle. We import FT as a result of low birth rate, they come and push prices up through inflation and property, car prices go up. As a result, both hubby and wife have to work and thus no time to make babies or take care of babies. More young adults are, I noticed, also more self-centred and want to "enjoy life" instead of caring for a baby. Sad but true.

Jan 18, 2011
Fertility figures hit all-time low
Shortage of babies a key hurdle to achieving a sustainable population
By Li Xueying, Political Correspondent

SINGAPORE'S baby shortfall worsened last year when the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) sank to a historic low of 1.16.

That is down from 1.22 in 2009, and way below the replacement level of 2.1.

Speaking at an Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) conference yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng identified the low TFR, which is a preliminary estimate, as the key hurdle to Singapore achieving a 'sustainable population'.

Such a population, he said, has a strong citizen core, a stable ethnic mix, enough manpower for economic growth, and mitigates the impact of ageing.

TFR measures the average number of children that a woman would bear in her lifetime, in this case, a woman resident in Singapore.

On the uphill task of persuading Singapore residents to have more children, Mr Wong said: 'The going is hard, but we have not given up. We will continue to support couples' decisions to get married and have children, and create a pro-family environment.'

The veteran minister, who now heads the National Population and Talent Division, said that to be realistic, Singapore also has to accept that boosting fertility will take time.

'For the foreseeable future, we will need to tap on immigration to augment our population, to support economic growth and to mitigate the impact of ageing,' he added.

Last year also saw the effect of the Government's tightened immigration framework of late 2009, designed to better manage the inflow and quality of new immigrants.

It granted only 29,265 new permanent residence passes last year, half of the 59,460 it granted in 2009.

But the number of new citizens held steady at 18,758 last year, just shy of the 19,928 in 2009, because Singapore attracted migrants 'of good quality', Mr Wong said.

On the need to balance staying open to foreigners and addressing the concerns of its citizen core, he said: 'Ultimately, it is about navigating a path that allows us to grow as a global city, yet remain a distinctive and endearing home.'

The preliminary estimate of a TFR of 1.16 for last year places Singapore below Japan and South Korea, which have estimated TFRs of 1.2 and 1.22 respectively.

Taiwan now has the lowest TFR in the world at 0.91.

The latest drop in Singapore's TFR comes after almost 30 years of government incentives to get Singaporeans in the mood for love - and babies.

In particular, the last decade has seen it redouble its efforts, by introducing the Baby Bonus and longer, paid maternity leave, among other things.

But some population experts think that last year's dip might be a blip and could be reversed this year.

Two factors could explain last year's new low of 1.16.

The first was the recession of 2009, which put a damper on family planning.

Said Dr Yap Mui Teng of the IPS: 'People were feeling a lot of uncertainty. We were talking about how it was the worst recession since the Depression.'

The second factor was the Chinese zodiac year of the Tiger falling last year. It is believed by some to be an unlucky year for having children.

With the economy having rebounded strongly and the more auspicious years of the Rabbit and Dragon coming up, the TFR is likely to stabilise - or even rise this year

'2010 was a boom year and I wouldn't be surprised if the TFR sees a bit of pickup in 2011,' said Dr Gavin Jones, a population specialist at the Asia Research Institute (ARI).

Dr Leong Chan Hoong of IPS said the TFR could also have been pulled down by successive waves of new PRs since 2005, who have fewer children than citizens.

Young Singaporeans interviewed said they were reluctant to have children because of the 'very high' financial cost of raising children in Singapore.

Take lawyer Tania Chin, 26, who plans to marry soon but has no intention of having children as yet.

'It's a question of opportunity cost, and I can't afford the downtime from my career,' she said. 'Furthermore, speaking from my own experience as an only child, children are really expensive.'

Dr Jones said one option is for the Government to increase its child allowance, but the increase would have to be 'by quite a lot for it to have much impact on fertility'.

Sociologist Jean Yeung, also of ARI, said another reason for the low TFR could be Singapore's patriarchal family system and policies.

'It will be useful for men to become more active and engaged as a co-parent rather than just a helper to the mother,' she said.

xueying@sph.com.sg

Motorists, traders get a break as remaining adjustments will now be spread over 3 years

By SAMUEL EE

(SINGAPORE) The COE quota for the next six months will be cut by an unexpectedly small 3 per cent, thanks to a government concession regarding the overprojection of COEs in earlier years.

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced yesterday that from February to July 2011, a total of 22,368 certificates of entitlement will be released, or 3 per cent less than the 23,063 for the quota period between August 2010 and January 2011. This means 3,728 COEs per month from next month compared with 3,844 currently.

The reduction is less severe than expected because of the government's decision to allow the remaining adjustments for the overprojections of vehicle deregistrations in 2008/2009 to be spread over three years instead of one year. If the correction for the 9,577 COEs was carried out over the next 12 months instead of 36, the impact to the upcoming quota would have been greater.

Transport Minister Raymond Lim said this was in response to a suggestion by the motor trade and that LTA is prepared to do so 'to give the industry and car buyers more time to adjust'.

'These are one-time corrections, and will not affect the long-term growth in the vehicle population,' Mr Lim said in Parliament yesterday.

So, starting next month, the number of available Category A COEs (for cars below 1,600 cc and taxis) will be 1,020 per month, down 14.6 per cent from the earlier six-month quota period. Cat B (for cars above 1,600 cc) will get 847 COEs, or 11.6 per cent less.

But Cat C (for goods vehicles) gets an increase of 34.7 per cent to 551 COEs per month, while Cat D (for motorcycles) shrinks 2 per cent to 651.

Cat E (the open category) also gets a 6.6 per cent boost to 659 COEs.

The method of determining the COE quota was changed in April 2010 and it is now determined largely by the actual number of vehicles deregistered in the preceding six-month period, rather than being based on forecasts of future deregistrations. Since then, the number of Cat A and Cat B cars deregistered has been on a general downtrend as COE premiums spiked up.

'Motor traders are not overjoyed by the new COE quota but we all heaved a sigh of relief,' exclaimed the sales manager of a mass-market brand which has been hit hard by the shrinking pool of COEs.

He said he was grateful that the transport minister had accepted the industry's suggestion to spread out the remaining adjustments to the overprojected COEs.

'My job is safe for now and you should still see me around for a few more years,' the sales manager added with a laugh.

Mr Lim also said pay-as-you-bid COEs are not the solution to high premiums. He was replying to Member of Parliament Lim Wee Kiak who had suggested such a system for COE tenders.

The minister told Dr Lim, who is the chairman of the Government Parliamentary Committee for Transport, that this had been studied 'in great detail some years back' and that there were certain shortcomings. In particular, the spread of prices showed a clustering around the lowest successful bid of 'about 20-30 per cent'.

'It's not as though the highest bidder is pulling up the price,' explained Mr Lim.

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

A safe and higher-yielding alternative to bank deposits

By SIOW LI SEN

BY mid-year, retail investors should be able to trade in Singapore government bonds - an eagerly awaited development for risk- averse savers.

Yesterday in Parliament, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said Singapore Government Securities (SGS) will begin trading on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) by the middle of this year, providing retail investors with a safe and higher-yielding alternative to bank deposits. Retail investors have since 2009 been able to take part in the SGS auctions via ATMs in minimum amounts of $1,000, but if they wanted to trade in them subsequently, they had to do so at selected bank branches.

In preparation for this year's trading launch on the stock exchange, SGX's Central Depository has been a custodian of individual investors' SGS holdings since April 1 last year.

Mr Tharman said retail investors concerned about the low savings rates can also participate in government bond auctions or buy high-quality corporate bonds that are now traded in smaller lot sizes on the exchange.

Most bank savings pay between 0.1 and 0.25 per cent. At yesterday's auction of three-month SGS, the median yield was 0.29 per cent.

The consumer price index inflation for November 2010 was 3.8 per cent year-on-year - the highest since January 2009 - with many economists expecting it to rise further this year from wage pressures, higher food and fuel prices and sharp hikes in vehicle certificate of entitlement (COE) premiums .

'Inflation should peak at 4.8 per cent in December, but may remain stubbornly high at above 4 per cent in Q1, such that there remains a real risk that full-year inflation will breach the upper end of the MAS forecast of 2-3 per cent,' said Wei Zheng Kit, Citi economist.

He said drivers include wage inflation from strong demand and policy-induced supply-side constraints, which would show up in services costs, fuel and food prices, rents and COE premiums. The likelihood of further tightening in 2011 by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) remains high in his view, Mr Wei added.

Mr Tharman said that inflation is expected to rise further in the first quarter of this year before moderating in subsequent quarters.

Last year, SGX said SGS will begin trading by the first quarter of this year as part of its programme to expand bond offerings to retail investors.

Last week, CapitaMalls Asia joined a small but growing coterie of corporates like Singapore Airlines and DBS Group Holdings to offer bonds to retail investors with its sale of $200 million worth of one-year and three-year bonds.

The one-year bonds maturing next year offer a return of one per cent per annum. The three-year bonds maturing in January 2014 carry an annual interest rate of 2.15 per cent.

Tng Kwee Lian, SGX head of fixed income, said the exchange is continuing to enhance its infrastructure to build the retail bond space.

She said companies are keen to tap on the SGX bond market as an alternative funding platform and she expects more to issue retail bonds given the strong market demand and interest.

'To build a vibrant bond market, SGX will continue to enhance its infrastructure to facilitate bond listings and trading, and expand its product range to include Singapore Government Securities (SGS). Recently, we have successfully put in place our first liquidity provider for some of the retail bonds to enhance market liquidity. This means investors can buy and sell easily at fair valuation,' said Ms Tng.

SGX will also hold a new series of bond seminars starting this month to help investors understand bond investing.

Topics covered include bond investment, bond holders' rights via trustee of the bond issuance, and the mechanics of bonds. These seminars are being conducted via SGX Academy and details can be obtained from the website (www.sgxacademy.com).

Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

(10-01-2011, 07:36 PM)aspeed Wrote: While I agreed 101% on importance of saving, there is also a famous phrase, "Money is not yours until you spend it."

Tony Chan, a feng shui master whose claim to the $12 billion estate of Nina Wang was rejected by a judge last February, asked an appeals court to overturn the ruling and award him the fortune.

Chan’s lawyer Ian Mill started the hearing today by showing a video of Chan teaching Wang, once Asia’s richest woman, how to start a car. Mill said the two addressed each other in “an intimate way.”

Chan said Wang left him the fortune following a 15-year relationship that began after he was hired to help Wang find her kidnapped husband. Hong Kong High Court Judge Johnson Lam ruled that the will benefiting Chan was a forgery and awarded the estate to a family charity foundation.

The dispute is the world’s largest probate fight, according to lawyers for the administrator of Wang’s estate, who value it at $12 billion. A three-judge panel of the Hong Kong Court of Appeal is scheduled to hear the case over the next 10 days.

Chan, who isn’t present at the hearing today, was arrested on suspicion of forgery following Lam’s ruling and freed on HK$5 million ($643,000) bail. Prosecutor Richard Turnbull said the justice department will consider laying charges against Chan based on the results of forensic testing being conducted on his 2006 version of Wang’s will.

Appeal Documents

Lam’s ruling was based on “irrational and unscientific” evidence, Chan’s lawyers said in the appeal documents. They said the judge was morally offended by Chan’s sexual relationship with Wang.

The dispute over the estate mirrors an earlier fight Wang waged for her husband’s fortune.

Wang won control of the estate in 2005 after Hong Kong’s highest court ruled she didn’t conspire to forge her husband’s will, overturning rulings by lower courts in 2002 and 2004 that gave the fortune to her father-in-law, Wang Din-shin.

Wang was also arrested during her dispute over the title to the property on charges she forged the will. Police dropped charges against her after the Court of Final Appeal’s ruling.

Wang, who died of uterine cancer at the age of 69 in 2007, had no children with her husband Teddy, whom she had married in 1955 at the age of 18.

The couple turned Teddy’s father’s Shanghai paint and chemical business into one of Hong Kong’s biggest closely-held real estate developers, with a portfolio including the Chinachem twin towers and Chinachem Exchange Square.

Kidnapped Twice

Teddy Wang was kidnapped in 1983 and again in 1990. He wasn’t returned after the second abduction after his wife paid part of the ransom. One of the captured kidnappers said Teddy Wang’s body was dumped into the sea from a small boat.

Nina ran Chinachem, the property company, using a power of attorney, insisting Teddy was alive. When her father-in-law had Teddy legally declared dead in 1999, she said Teddy had made her his heir in a new will signed just before his kidnapping.

Chan, who is married with three children, was hired by Wang in 1992 to help find her husband by using the Chinese geomantic practice of feng shui, according to Lam’s judgment. Chan dug holes at various sites owned by Chinachem for seven years, and received about HK$2.1 billion from her between 2005 and 2006.

Chan’s lawyers said the payments were to groom him for managing her fortune. Chan testified at last year’s trial that his sexual relationship with Wang began a month after they met.

Chan wasn’t a credible witness and was prepared to say anything to advance his claims, Lam said in his ruling that awarded the estate to the Chinachem Charitable Foundation Ltd., a charity run by Wang’s brother and two sisters.

The charity hasn’t received any funds from the estate because legal proceedings are ongoing, its lawyer Keith Ho said.

The case is between Chinachem Charitable Foundation Limited and Chan Chun Chuen and the Secretary for Justice, CACV62/2010 in the Hong Kong High Court of Appeal.

To contact the reporters on this story: Debra Mao in Hong Kong at dmao5@bloomberg.net; Kelvin Wong in Hong Kong at kwong40@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Douglas Wong at dwong19@bloomberg.net

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC1...PO-by-2012

Quote:Facebook may be forced into IPO by 2012
11:55 AM Jan 07, 2011
SAN FRANCISCO - Facebook, the world's largest social-networking company with more than 600 million users, will start disclosing financial data or hold an initial public offering by April 2012, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a private-placement memo.

Facebook expects to surpass the 500-shareholder limit this year, triggering a United States Securities and Exchange Commission rule that requires privately held companies to release financial details, according to the newspaper.

When companies have more than 500 shareholders, they can choose to remain private and keep their stock from trading publicly. However, most companies facing mandatory disclosures opt to go public. Google hit the 500-shareholder threshold in 2003 and went public in 2004 at an offering price of US$85 per share. Google shares closed at US$613.50 yesterday.

Facebook has been avoiding discussion of when it might go public, giving investors the impression that it wants to stay private as long as possible. At a tech conference last year, chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said: "Don't hold your breath."

But things have since changed. The company is holding a private share offering through Goldman Sachs, a move that has shed light on Facebook's financial results and plans. Goldman Sachs and funds managed by the firm have invested US$450 million ($580 million) in Facebook, according to an offering document sent to potential investors this week. The firm also has an arrangement to let clients make additional investments of as much as US$1.5 billion.

Facebook had US$1.2 billion of revenue and US$355 million in profit during the first nine months of 2010, according to The New York Times, which cited documents sent to Goldman Sachs clients.

Facebook, once expected to go public in 2011, was already expected to put that off until 2012, three people familiar with the matter said last year.

Spokesmen for Facebook and Goldman Sachs declined to comment. AGENCIES

In terms of classification, I didn't really know where this should go!

Jan 6, 2011
Former CapitaLand retail chief 'to list $1b Reit'

PERENNIAL Real Estate, a firm set up by former CapitaLand retail chief Pua Seck Guan, has hired Goldman Sachs, DBS Bank and Standard Chartered Bank to help it raise as much as $1 billion in a property trust initial public offering (IPO), sources with knowledge of the deal said yesterday.

Perennial intends to list a business trust in Singapore that will comprise mostly shopping malls in China, said the sources, who declined to be named.

Pre-marketing of the deal is scheduled to begin later this month, with the formal launch of the IPO slated for the end of March, the sources added.

A spokesman for Perennial, which is involved in the development and management of malls as well as property funds, said it has businesses in China, India and Singapore and 'continues to explore opportunities in these markets'.

The three banks either declined comment or could not be reached.

By putting its assets in a business trust, Perennial has greater scope to invest in properties under development, and retains the flexibility of paying out a smaller portion of rental income to shareholders, two of the sources said.

Mr Pua, who is widely credited with building CapitaLand's malls business, resigned from South-east Asia's biggest developer in September 2008, sparking a 7 per cent fall in the firm's share price.

His firm is now leading the redevelopment of three commercial properties in Singapore, and backers of his unlisted China funds include Beijing Hualian Group.

REUTERS

From CNA. I am quite surprised that about 3,000 people defaulted on their car loans from Jan-Nov 2010.

Car loan rates reach new lows
By Lynda Hong | Posted: 04 January 2011 2312 hrs

SINGAPORE: The shrinking car market -- as a result of the cut in Certificate of Entitlement (COE) quotas -- has forced car financiers and dealers to slash interest rates to new lows.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, interest rates across the board for car loans were cut to as low as 1.88 per cent -- a significant dip compared to the corresponding period in 2009 -- when interest rates ranged between 2.22 per cent and 2.50 per cent.

In November last year, Borneo Motors even temporarily offered a 1.49 per cent interest rate on loans for its Toyota cars, which came bundled with a package offering maintenance services and five years of unlimited mileage warranty.

The rate has since been reverted to the prevailing market rate of 1.88 per cent.

By press time, Borneo Motors had not said why the rate was raised.

To be announced this month, new COE quotas for the February to July period are expected to sink even lower.

This is expected to result in higher COE prices.

But it's the fewer COEs available, rather than higher prices, that have brought about lowered interest rates on car loans, said Tan Chong Motors general manager Ron Lim.

However, he feels a further cut of interest rates from the current 1.88 per cent is unlikely.

This is because the first company to lower interest rates cannot hold on to its gain of market share for long, as the other companies will follow suit to remain competitive.

Hence, most if not all companies will not reduce rates.

But the official dealer of Honda, Kah Motor, said a lower 1.65 per cent interest rate would have been possible if not for the three free maintenance service offered as part of the loan package.

Most car financiers like Hong Leong Finance, UOB and DBS -- which work with car distributors to offer car buyers loan packages bundled with freebies -- have remained tight-lipped on whether rates will go below the current 1.88 per cent.

Potential buyers of used cars are also being wooed with low interest rates on loans.

The honorary secretary of the Singapore Vehicle Traders Association (SVTA), Mr Raymond Tang, noted that car loan interest rates started falling in mid-2010, when the rates dipped from 2.5 per cent to the current 1.88 per cent.

Mr Tang also noted that its members are offering bundled promotions like petrol vouchers, GPS devices and "intensive cash rebates" that can be about 0.5 per cent of the total loan amount.

Despite the attractive car loans, car owners are not rushing to replace their current vehicles. Instead, they are now more disciplined with their loan repayments.

The number of car owners who have defaulted on their car loans -- which could have been acquired to finance the entire cost of a car -- has dropped.

According to the Credit Bureau Singapore, 3,038 consumers defaulted on car loans from Jan to Nov 2010, down by 6.58 per cent during the same period in 2009.

-CNA/wk

When I read such news, I can't help but wonder if this is a good thing?

Jan 1, 2011
Value of SGX firms at record year-end high
Total value of listed firms on local bourse surpasses 2007 peak
By Jonathan Kwok

THE total value of all companies listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) is at a record end-of-year high thanks to the strongly recovering market and economy.

At the closing bell yesterday at noon, an early finish ahead of New Year, the value of SGX listed companies had eclipsed the previous record Dec 31 high back in 2007, prior to the financial crisis.

The market value, also known as the market capitalisation, of all SGX firms at yesterday's close was $846.1 billion. This beat the $797.8 billion on Dec 31, 2007, at the end of the previous boom before the recession battered the market.

The market capitalisation of a firm is calculated by multiplying the current share price by the total number of shares.

Observers regard the new record as testament to the stock market's health and and a reflection of how far the recovery has come since grim periods of 2008 and 2009 when the crisis was at its darkest.

The record figure was aided by the extra corporate activity spurred by the rebound including new listings on SGX and the sale of new shares to existing shareholders, known as rights issues.

The market's total value of $846.1 billion is also 23 per cent higher than 2009's $689.8 billion. Shares enjoyed a mostly uninterrupted rise throughout 2010.

Still there was a blip around mid-year as the debt woes of euro zone countries raised questions about whether the global economy would slip back into recession.

The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 3,190.04 points yesterday, a gain of 10.1 per cent on the year.

Nomura's South-east Asia head of equity research, Mr Lim Jit Soon, says the 30 STI component stocks made up a large majority of the entire bourse's market value. Rises in these blue chips had contributed significantly to the record high.

The market was helped substantially by the listing of British insurance giant Prudential in May, as well as October's listing of Global Logistic Properties (GLP) and Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT). Yesterday's figures show Prudential added $33.7 billion to Singapore's market cap, while GLP added $9.7 billion and MIT contributed $1.6 billion.

The top blue-chip performer for the year was Genting Singapore, whose market value surged 76 per cent to $26.7 billion as its share price jumped. The casino operator's integrated resort, Resorts World Sentosa, has surpassed even the most optimistic expectations, spurring upgrades from market analysts and ramped-up investor interest. This helped Genting jump two places to No. 9 in the league of the bourse's largest companies.

SingTel is still the bourse's largest company, with a market value of $48.6 billion down 2 per cent from 2009 after SingTel's price dipped slightly over the year.

In the No. 2 spot was Jardine Strategic Holdings, then sister stock Jardine Matheson. They are trading near all-time highs.

The Jardine stocks overtook palm oil giant Wilmar International, which lost 12 per cent in market value to $36 billion. Its share price has dipped in the past two months after a large drop in third quarter profits and after investors reacted coolly to its forays into the property business.

DBS Group Holdings and United Overseas Bank also fell in value. But OCBC Bank gained 12 per cent to $33 billion.

Sias Research vice-president Roger Tan said the bourse's market value will grow further this year, with potential new listings and funds flowing here from developed countries. He also expects local investors to jump into the market in greater numbers as inflation rises.

jonkwok@sph.com.sg

Wish all forummers a joyful New Year!!!!

Lets post all our wishes here