(25-06-2016, 07:40 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]Bloomberg - Over One Million Sign Petition Calling for Second EU Referendum http://bloom.bg/28UhI1M
The rich who got outvoted are unhappy. Trying to use any means to reverse a vote. Wow, like that also can...
I am all for Trump now, world badly needs a wake up call...
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The EU want to tekan UK lah
Is like when we left out 'union' with msia federation in 65 or rather they threw us out, much like how EU trying chase UK out.
And now same as back then everybody also pessimistic about our survival we started everything from scratch zero also we got a bit of luck we inherited one of the worlds busiest waterways.
UK is not even starting from scratch, their economy is much much much more than us of course they can survive - in the immediate sure there will be some pain and need to adjust.
@sgd : yes quite true, EU is trying to get UK out quickly, much like a soldier with an injured leg which is starting to get infected and rot, needs to cut it off quickly before the infection spread. UK should be ok in the longer term.
@Behappyalways : It seems Soros has interest to keep EU together, he must be heavily vested there.
We will never know who suffers more from this - UK or Germany.
However, given that one of UK sticking point was because many migrants from other EU members were coming to UK to seek a job - England unemployment rate 5% vs Europe avg (ex Germany) 10%. UK did not like that they were suffering at this.
The second aspect now there is 1 less wealthy nation to support the EU block, will Germany be economically willing to shoulder the burden when its political master wants to have the will to maintain it. And don't forget it is an impetus where other nations will want to leave. It will be interesting to see Greece etc leave EU and how much write offs German banks have to take as a result
(26-06-2016, 10:52 AM)CY09 Wrote: [ -> ]We will never know who suffers more from this - UK or Germany.
However, given that one of UK sticking point was because many migrants from other EU members were coming to UK to seek a job - England unemployment rate 5% vs Europe avg (ex Germany) 10%. UK did not like that they were suffering at this.
The second aspect now there is 1 less wealthy nation to support the EU block, will Germany be economically willing to shoulder the burden when its political master wants to have the will to maintain it. And don't forget it is an impetus where other nations will want to leave. It will be interesting to see Greece etc leave EU and how much write offs German banks have to take as a result
If you remember initially when the problems appear a lot of banks in europe exposed to greek debt. But then ecb stepped in and bailed out these people. ECB took or rather bought over greek toxic debt from all the exposed banks, the banks got liquidity they needed and got the greek debt of their books and off the hook. Not sure if same way was also handled with spanish and italian toxic debt
That's why it's always ECB wanted austerity measures implemented not the banks. However ECB made 1 condition as long as Greece remained in EU this arrangement with the banks continued not sure if that meant they are still the "guarantor" if greece leaves and the debt tanks will the banks have to pay back ECB?
Timebomb man
(26-06-2016, 10:09 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]FTSE(UK) was down 3.15% but DAX(Germany) was down 6.82%. Why did DAX fall more than FTSE? No doubt UK gonna suffer in the short term to medium term like what George Soros had said but EU gonna have a lot more uncertainties.
(26-06-2016, 09:08 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: [ -> ]Soros warns of EU disintegration
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36630468
Brexit and the Future of Europe
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commen...os-2016-06
Uk stocks didnt fall much coz pound crashed 10% in a day which is like a big stimulus to the economy. Like china devalue yuan.
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(26-06-2016, 09:37 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: [ -> ]@sgd : yes quite true, EU is trying to get UK out quickly, much like a soldier with an injured leg which is starting to get infected and rot, needs to cut it off quickly before the infection spread. UK should be ok in the longer term.
Somehow i felt now the most urgent thing for EU to do is to make UK looks very very ugly. I won't surprise EU choose to punish UK in whatever mean they can. In trade in business in immigration whatever.
I won't blame EU because to them it can be a survival fight in order to unite EU. To show the consequences of leaving EU, and to show what they capable of. Else EU will collapse in no time everyone will just follow suit to leave without consequence.
Yes, it is UK stab the EU back first. EU has every right to fight back. To EU it is their self defence, the way to stay together. And i can't imagine what will happen to the economy if both UK and EU going into this route.
EU will be in a lot worst condition if they did not divorce amicably. They need UK being the 6th largest economy.
At the end of the day is not who lose more but both will try to win with closer economic corporation between 2 entities.
I think what EU wants is to neutralize the situation quickly in order to stabilise the euro region. If they do a 2 year negotiation or drag things out, it will only add negative effect and volatility to all their economies due to the UNCERTAINTY. It took like decades for the EU agreements and trade deals to come together, wanna renegotiate new deals is not so fast or easy. Especially EU has so many party of interest. '
EU also now have ongoing migrant crisis, terrorist threat, bankrupt PIIGS nations and Ukraine issues to deal with which are all headache issues with no solution in sight, except for a big RESET.
From what i read Spain is having their elections now which hopefully they can get a leading party. Apparently since Dec last year they have no proper government. Already Italy/Spain/greek stocks crash 12%+ liao. If those countries dun get their act together (which probably will be impossible), EU/ECB will be very jialat.
IMHO probably the bankrupt EURO nations might take this confusion as a chance to default and exit the EURO. Since if the EURO is going down, not much difference for them to leave and get their currency devalued anyways. If everyone all run road together, no need to pay back EURO, there is nothing much ECB can do but to take the losses.
Besides, those country nearer the southern part of EURO which are the most badly hit by immigrants can then send their own army to secure their borders which will be an excellent excuse for politicians to leave EU. I am sure the EU countries citizens buay tahan the flood of refuges. See locally the FT problem already so many people complain liao. Imagine the christian ANG MO surely must be thinking to block the muslims. Historically those two religion are in conflict.
Doesnt look too good, carnage in stock market continue in ARAB stocks which just started trading. Risk being dramatic but maybe BREXIT IS the black swan causing the 2016 great european financial crisis. And this time there is nothing central bankers can do, all their bullets used up liao. USA FED bullets may not be enough to survive a Euro shock. And if contagion spread to China, things will be even more painful for us.