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Extracts from AVJ FY6/2015 earnings report - a mass housing developer:

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3051-...#pid118461

Directors believe that market fundamentals remain very positive, with continued population
growth, a low interest rate and more stable employment environment. The falling Australian
dollar is also expected to help the economy transition to more balanced growth.
Mr Summers said, “It has been disappointing to see that much of the commentary on the housing
market has focussed on extreme examples or specific micro-markets, such as parts of inner
Sydney, which are then extrapolated into the rest of the Australian market.”
“We believe that a sensible discussion around a number of points is critical. The issue of stamp
duty, a tax that was meant to be eliminated in 2000 with the introduction of GST, is one such
debate long overdue. The Company has for many years talked about the impact of government
charges and taxes and the cost of red tape causing delays that are impacting affordability,”
Mr Summers said.
Mr Summers said it was important to remember that the current market activity in new
residential housing markets in which the Company operates follows a period of sustained
downturn and lack of supply in many key markets.
“Until recently, poor consumer confidence led to a sustained period of inactivity in
many parts of Australia with reduced sale volumes. Added to this, as we at AVJennings have
been saying for a number of years, there is a significant undersupply of housing in many parts
of Australia and New Zealand. It is these two factors, pent up demand resulting
from historical low consumer confidence to transact, and a lack of land supply for over a
decade, that has seen the rebound in the New South Wales market and Auckland,” Mr Summers
said.
The markets in which the Company operates are less affected by many of the extreme
issues influencing other markets such as CBD and inner ring residential in Sydney and
Melbourne. “We do not auction property. Our prices are set to drive volume
not maximise a one off result and there is a transparent system involving banks, valuers and
a high level of competition which tempers dramatic price changes and our market is
predominantly weighted to domestic buyers and owner occupiers” Mr Summers said.
The Chairman, Mr Cheong concluded by noting that, "Directors are therefore confident
AVJennings is now in a strong growth phase. The Company is satisfied that its business
model, backed by recent acquisitions and increased funding capacity, sees it well placed to
capitalise on future demand after a long period of low consumer confidence. The population
continues to grow and the need to provide quality affordable housing to Australians and New
Zealanders remains."

• Aug 21 2015 at 6:29 PM 
   
  
  
•  Updated Aug 21 2015 at 6:29 PM 
  

Residential property has further to run, says Abacus boss Frank Wolf

[img=620x0]http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/j/5/0/0/d/image.related.afrArticleLead.620x350.gj4b5s.png/1440145790705.jpg[/img]Abacus managing director Frank Wolf says commercial property is in the "top quartile" of the property clock.Michele Mossop
by Robert Harley
The $1.6 billion Abacus Property Group expects "strong risk-adjusted returns" from a residential pipeline which now extends to 7500 units and land lots, and from which the group aims for sales of around $1 billion.
At his annual results presentation, Abacus managing director Frank Wolf said the commercial market was in the top quartile of the property clock – and close to the 12.00 midnight peak – with much better risk-adjusted returns in residential.
"I think there is still several years' support for residential at these levels … I am comfortable with our position in the residential market," Dr Wolf said, stressing the relatively low average land cost and the lack of high-end projects. 
Nevertheless, Abacus is shifting its focus. "We are looking at smaller sites in metropolitan rather than CBD locations," he said. "We recently bought a small site in Hawthorn [Melbourne] where we will build townhouses and we will make a phenomenal margin – around 30 per cent on cost."

Abacus is unusual amongst the top real estate investment trusts with its focus on core plus opportunities and a four-pronged business that includes interests in storage and development ventures along with offices and shopping centres.
Dr Wolf said his group had a good 2015, with strong performances from all business sectors contributing to a 27 per cent rise in underlying earnings – and 17 per cent in underlying earnings per security – following a 21 per cent rise in underlying earnings in 2014.
But Friday was a savage day to report a result. The top 17 real estate investment trusts lost over 1.8 per cent and Abacus dropped 2.6 per cent. Only the National Storage REIT gained ground, perhaps on the demonstrated strength of the Abacus storage business.

• Aug 21 2015 at 3:27 PM 
   
  
  
•  Updated Aug 21 2015 at 3:27 PM 
  

Industry funds boss Garry Weaven doubts housing bubble, but looks to European property

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Garry Weaven, chairman of IFM Investors, isn't fretting about a bubble in Melbourne and Sydney housing, but he sees potential over the next decade in European property.

[img=620x0]http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/j/3/4/x/v/image.related.afrArticleLead.620x350.gj44rq.png/1440144025593.jpg[/img]Industry Funds Management chair and founder Garry Weaven does not accept that Europe won't return as a powerhouse. Jesse Marlow
by Ben Potter
Garry Weaven, chairman of fund mangers IFM Investors, is not fretting about a bubble in Melbourne and Sydney housing, and he sees upside over the next decade in European property.
IFM Investors manages nearly $60 billion for industry and not-for-profit pensions funds in Australia, North America and Europe.
His comments come against a background of Treasury Secretary John Fraser and Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens expressing concern about rising house prices in parts of Sydney.
Mr Weaven couldn't say whether housing will suffer a "retraction" in the next two years or not. But he said strong demand from Asian buyers in certain suburbs is unlikely to go away.

The proud Melburnian said the relatively lower prices for Melbourne property is not warranted.
"The things that can not be replaced easily are the public transport infrastructure and the city itself," he said.
"Would [now] be the ideal time to buy? Probably not. But would it be a bad time? No – except if you want to make a profit in the next two years."
More broadly Mr Weaven says he still marvels at how well-leased buildings could be bought on 10 to 12 per cent yields in the shell-shocked Aussie property markets of the early 1990s.


The principle of buying at the right time and place launched ISPT, the $11 billion industry super property trust, and that has been a template for his successful personal investments.
Now he says there could be better opportunities globally.
European governments have allowed banks to sit on property rather than dump it on weak markets.
But the banks will need to offload properties at reasonable prices over the next decade, Mr Weaven said.

"I cannot accept that Europe won't return as a bit of a powerhouse – but you have to take a long term view of these things."

• Aug 25 2015 at 5:26 PM 
   
  
  
•  Updated Aug 25 2015 at 5:42 PM 
  

Euphoric buying is creating a housing bubble

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[img=620x0]http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/1/m/h/q/4/b/image.related.afrArticleLead.620x350.gj6z9k.png/1440488541305.jpg[/img]Dr Shane Oliver dismissed the idea that foreign buyers were responsible for driving property prices up. Jim Rice
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by Su-Lin Tan
The property markets in Sydney and Melbourne have gone too far, AMP Capital Investors' chief economist Shane Oliver said at the Asia-Pacific Banking & Finance's breakfast in Sydney on Tuesday.
The market is overvalued despite higher property prices being driven by "fundamentals" such as demand from a growing population.
"Interest rates are at record lows and [are] lower than the 1950s - before Marcia Brady was born. The market has gone too far, is overvalued and there is a high degree of euphoric buying," he said.
Sydney property prices have risen close to 20 per cent in the past 12 months and Melbourne, 12 per cent. Since the last property low in 2012, dwelling prices have increased 30 per cent nationally, fuelling fears the market is overheated and heading for a crash.

Dr Oliver said a "bubble" was not just characterised by "flipping" – a term used to describe speculative buying and selling of properties.
"It's quite hard to flip in Australia given high selling costs. But all the signs are there – 'fear of missing out' has set in and buyers, particularly in Sydney, have become irrational," he said.
But while the Australian "property bubble" will not burst, Dr Oliver said the buying frenzy must slow.
ANZ's chief economist, Warren Hogan, said with no rise in interest rate imminent, it would be up to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to curtail bank lending to borrowers in order to tame the market.


Dr Oliver also dismissed the idea that foreign buyers were responsible for driving property prices up.
"They're just the sideshow, just as self-managed super funds and negative gearing are. They are contributors but the greater problem is the lack of supply of housing."
CoreLogic RP Data's head of research Tim Lawless backed the view that while foreign investments have increased they were mainly in the luxury and apartment sectors.

• Aug 25 2015 at 4:38 PM 
   
  
  
•  Updated Aug 25 2015 at 4:38 PM 
  

Property prices 'over inflated' with no refuge for investors

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[img=620x0]http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/1/m/h/q/b/l/image.related.afrArticleLead.620x350.gj77qw.png/1440484728381.jpg[/img]AMP Capital chief economist, Shane Oliver is sceptical investors will go to property.
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by Su-Lin Tan
Experts do not think there is "enough value" in the property market to lure investors away from the ASX200, which edged upward on Tuesday after losing about $60 billion on Monday. 
"We are not seeing panic selling, instead people are taking a defensive posture so there won't be a short-term transfer of funds to other assets," said Alan Hull from the Australian Investors Association. 
"Generally, property prices have departed from fundamentals and are overinflated so investors can't find value there anymore. I think investors will stay in the sharemarket where the fundamentals are better than property."
Traditionally, investors sought out other assets such as property when share prices fell as seen during the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 but things were different now, AMP Capital chief economist, Shane Oliver said.

"The common story after every sharemarket fall is a move to property, refer to 1987 and the property market rise in 1988-89. It is not that simple these days. There is no more yield in property, residential is about 3 per cent, back then it was 8 per cent," he said. 
"And back then the market wasn't as strong and now it's bubbling."
"I'm sceptical people will go to property." 
MARKET 'CORRECTING NOT CRASHING'


Dr Oliver also supported federal Treasurer Joe Hockey's view that sharemarket was correcting rather than crashing and said investors were better off staying put in the share market. 
"The market will bottom out in the next two months, then investors could even "stick around and pick up a bargain" as they had on Tuesday when the market bounced back up briefly."
If investors flee the share market, instead of property, investors could even favour cash, financial planner, AGS Financial Group's Alex Berlee said.
"You might see some clients favour property, but the cash to share switch is more common," he said. 

But Mr Hull said the low cash rate might be a deterrent to this strategy.
Investment groups which service mainly Chinese investors also believed there would not be a "big rush" to property. 
"Share investors and property investors in general are different animals. There are more short-term speculators in the sharemarket. Interestingly, share investors seemed like risk takers but they have no courage to borrow large sums to buy property," the Property Investors Alliance's managing director Justin Wang said.
PROPERTY COSTS SKYROCKET

The cost of property in Australia has skyrocketed since the last low in 2012; dwelling properties are 30 per cent more expensive.
But if the sharemarket fell enough, Chinese investment group, Ausin, said there was a good chance investors could bite the bullet and move to property. 
"The entry costs into the property market are very high so going in is a considered decision rather than a reactive one. You won't see a short-term move," head of strategy and research, Brendan Smith said.  
Others remained optimistic about property being a refuge asset for crestfallen equity investors. 
"It could be possible that investors will turn to the property market with concerns of the stock market falling further. We saw this trend occur during the GFC so I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again," financial products website, finder.com.au's Michelle Hutchison said. 
"While the rate of growth for property values could plateau in the short term, it's likely to pick up again over the long term."
Watpac's managing director Martin Monro also shared the same sentiment that investors often looked to property in uncertain times. 
While the ASX 200 dropped below 5000 points on Tuesday – the first time since July 2013 – it recovered to 5139 points on Tuesday afternoon. 

APRA talks down Sydney and Melbourne property lending constraints
DateAugust 26, 2015 - 7:09PM

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Clancy Yeates
Banking reporter



The banking regulator has played down the case for city-specific restrictions to curb the booming Sydney and Melbourne housing markets, in contrast to the approach taken by New Zealand regulators in Auckland.
Wayne Byres, chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, also flagged a potential delay in the next wave of bank capital rules, as complex global negotiations take longer than expected.
In a speech on the $1.3 trillion home loan market, Mr Byres on Wednesday signalled risky home lending had been wound back and responded to suggestions that APRA should consider measures specific to Sydney and Melbourne, as this is where the property markets have been hottest.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has forced investor buyers in Auckland to have larger deposits than buyers in other parts of the country.
While he did not rule it out, Mr Byres outlined several reasons against this approach, and signalled APRA was keen to first assess the impact of recent moves by banks to tighten lending and raise interest rates for investors.
"Our mandate is to preserve the resilience of the banking system, not target housing prices in a particular region of the country," Mr Byres said.
He added there were risks in the home loan market in other parts of the country, and ensuring higher lending standards was just as important in areas with weak property markets as those experiencing booms.
"Sound lending standards – prudently estimating borrower income and expenses, and not assuming interest rates will stay low forever – are just as important, and maybe even more so, in an environment where price growth is subdued as they are in markets where prices are rising quickly," Mr Byres said.
Latest figures from CoreLogic RP Data show Sydney home prices are up 18.4 per cent in the last year and up 11.5 per cent in Melbourne, amid very strong demand from investors.
After National Australia and ANZ Bank recently reclassified billions of loans as investor loans rather than owner-occupier loans, Mr Byres said such changes were "definitely to be avoided in the future".
APRA is forcing banks to slow growth in their housing investor loan portfolios to less than 10 per cent a year, which has prompted banks to tighten credit and raise interest rates for investor customers.
Mr Byres welcomed moves by banks to test borrowers' sensitivity to higher interest rates more rigorously, saying they gave "greater comfort" about the quality of new loans being written.
However, he said the moves by the major banks to raise interest rates "may well have limited impact on loan growth given the tendency for competitors to match pricing changes".
Aside from curbing loan growth, banks are also being forced to hold billions more capital against mortgages, and some analysts have predicted a further increase in their capital requirements due to the next wave of global regulations known as Basel IV.
It had been expected some of these would be finalised by the end of this year, but Mr Byres said this was a "very ambitious" timetable and instead flagged a "a slightly longer period of uncertainty" for banks.

• Aug 26 2015 at 12:10 PM 
   
  
  
•  Updated Aug 26 2015 at 12:44 PM 
  

Australia's burial site property boom

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NaN of
[img=620x0]http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/j/7/m/c/n/image.related.afrArticleLead.620x350.gj60we.png/1440558091447.jpg[/img]Jane Grover, chief executive officer of Victoria's Southern Metropolitan Cemeteries Trust. Simon O'Dwyer
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by Jacquie Hayes
Greater numbers of Australians are choosing to be as big in death as they have been in life and are locking into elaborate burial sites early before they run out.
Competition is being made more intense by the influx of cashed-up Asian communities who are not only prepared to pay handsomely for traditional send-offs of local loved ones, they're bringing in the departed from offshore for interment here. 
While this isn't about buying real estate – you're purchasing burial rights – it's still all about location, location, location. That's why cemeteries and memorial parks are advising us to buy what we want in today's dollars now or risk getting priced out of the market when our time comes.
Australia may not yet be at the level of countries like the US where grave sites go for millions of dollars. But depleting burial space in existing cemeteries may require those of us wanting to be buried rather than cremated book in early or miss out when we check out.

This could be a devastating outcome for surviving family who are left with a sense of failure at not being able to fulfil a loved one's last wish, says Jane Grover, chief executive officer of Victoria's Southern Metropolitan Cemeteries Trust (SMCT).
"We've noticed that people who pre-plan have a funeral that involves less anger," Grover says. "It not only makes that day incredibly smooth but it also keeps the family united because they're respecting mum or dad's wishes and there's nothing to argue over."
A sense of peace is certainly present as one drives through the main gate of the 110-hectare Springvale Botanical Cemetery, the jewel in the crown of eight such properties managed by SMCT, this one south east of Melbourne's CBD. But a sign some way down the road reminds you that this is business, advising one to "secure exclusive grave opportunities". 
FENG SHUI CEMETERY


There are many options here – a result, says Grover, of a deliberate effort to meet, via a designated community insights team, the needs of the surrounding communities and their specific needs. There are 230 multicultural groups around the Springvale site, so the offerings are diverse. Earlier this year the cemetery opened what it says is the only dedicated feng shui Buddhist cemetery in Australia, Song He Yuan.
It's already attracted strong interest from interstate and offshore families about future interments, says Springvale's consumer insights manager, William Babington.
"Among the Chinese and Indo-Chinese communities particularly, it's all about paying respect to your parents who raised you, cared for you," Babington says. "These cultures are all about caring for their elders. They won't use palliative care, for example. It's quite amazing to see the lengths people go to. They spare no expense [on their funerals]."
Ideal feng shui plots range in price from $16,000 to almost $300,000 for a family grave in which three generations can be interred, he says.

SPACE AT A PREMIUM
The Italian community, meanwhile, is willing to pay similar amounts to be buried in a crypt or mausoleum at Melbourne General Cemetery where spaces – and prices – are at a premium.The only way is up for those prices given death rate projections. About 36,000 people die each year in Victoria, a number that will double in the next 20 years, says Grover, driven mainly by the deaths of the baby boomers.
"Globally, it will be the biggest death rate post the WWII babies," she says.
Given that outlook, Grover has made it her personal mission since joining SMCT four years ago – initially as chief operating officer and the past six months as CEO – to build a more sustainable business. She came to the SMCT after a career in hospitality and casinos and has overlaid her private-sector principles on a sector which she says hasn't seen innovation for some time. 

"We're re-imagining death," she says, and it seems death becomes her, considering the success she's brought.
SMCT's cemetery operating revenue in 2010 was $35.5 million. At the end of the last financial year, that figure was up to $59.5 million – a 15.7 per cent increase on the previous year's $51.4 million. 
"We've innovated, we're trying to sell to the heart, but the importance of working with the community has actually grown our revenue," she says. "If you have products and services that the customer wants, they'll come."
The job was made easier with the construction at Springvale of a new function and administration building, the Clarence Reardon Centre, named after the cemetery's first interment 102 years ago, a seven-month-old baby.
The decision to take the retail and catering divisions in-house – including construction of a full kitchen and appointment of executive chef Allan Koh (ex Koko Japanese Restaurant at Crown Casino) – means the group can  cater for weddings, parties, anything. In the past seven months, the centre has brought in an additional $3.6 million in functions alone. 
"We'd like to be in the Good Food Guide 12 months from now," Grover says. "We have aspirations."
Broad-ranging events have been organised to keep the modern cemetery alive. Jazz has been performed in the garden, a wedding was conducted in March and an upcoming acoustic performance is booked out. Moonlight cinema is a possibility.
"We want to demystify cemeteries and get people to see them for the great community assets that they are," she says. "We're a multi-asset, multi-function business and we're trying to normalise this environment and make sure people are comfortable but also that we're sustainable."
Springvale still has about 15 years of saleable life, she says. Its successor, the similarly-sized $53.5 million state-of-the-art Bunurong Memorial Park, is due to open in December.
One of Grover's biggest challenges will be making sure the sector comes with her. 
"We're running quite fast but we need to improve the sector because it's been dormant for a long time," she says. "We're saying there's a better way of doing things."  
So if you're getting the sense you're running out of time, it might be time to lock into that final resting place. Then you can relax and get on with living the rest of your life.

Australian Finance Group says APRA should 'hold fire' on efforts to cool property market
DateAugust 27, 2015 - 12:47PM

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James Eyers


The chief executive of the country's largest mortgage broker, the newly listed Australian Finance Group, has urged the banking regulator to "hold fire" on more moves to cool investor lending market, saying current measures are already "starting to bite".
AFG managing director Brett McKeon said investor loans had fallen as a percentage of AFG's book. 
"May and June investor numbers are off quite significantly over the previous six months - we think APRA is starting to bite in that regard," he said during a briefing.

He urged the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to take stock of its regulatory efforts. 
"APRA needs to sit back and see what washes through ... We would like to see APRA hold fire for a while, and see the impact of these policy changes," said Mr McKeon, who owns just under 10 per cent of the company, which listed in May. 
Like its listed competitor Mortgage Choice, market sentiment around AFG has been weighed down by action this year from APRA, which is pressuring banks to keep a lid on property investor lending growth at 10 per cent. 
In a speech on Wednesday, APRA chairman Wayne Byres said it was too early to say whether more action would be needed to preserve the resilience of the banking system.
The prudential regulator remained open to taking further steps but would prefer "if lenders themselves maintain a healthy dose of common sense in their lending practices", which would reduce the need for APRA to do more, he said. 
Mr Byres also noted that if investor lending continued to grow at around 10 per cent, this would still be the fastest class of credit and be at twice the rate of nominal gross domestic product (GDP).
"A moderation in lending growth as currently envisaged should therefore not be seen as unduly restrictive: it is not placing a foot on the credit brake, but rather easing off the accelerator," he said. 
AFG posted its maiden profit result as a listed company on Thursday, delivering a net profit 8 per cent above its prospectus forecast, driven by higher loan settlements, despite the regulatory focus on curbing lending growth to property investors, which has acted as a drag on its share price since its listing in May. 
Mr McKeon stressed that the clampdown on lending to investors had not affected AFG's flows because the group's 2400 brokers had been able to redirect their focus onto owner-occupiers. 
"Brokers have been able to redirect their focus on owner-occupier business and find new business there. Brokers are very good at finding business," he said. 
AFG shares jump
The market applauded the result, with AFG shares hitting $1.12, up almost 5 per cent, before settling at $1.09 at 11:30am AEST. But this is still well below its issue price of $1.20. 
Andrew Wackett, an analyst at Macquarie, which owns part of AFG and managed the float, said the shares had struggled to climb above the listing price because of APRA's attention on the investor market and "this is the first indication they can grow earnings in that environment. Now they will have to prove they can continue that over time".
AFG, which has a residential and commercial loan book of $107 billion (containing ongoing trailing commissions), said growth of its "Edge" home loan product had exceeded expectations, with more than $460 million settling during the period, well ahead of forecasts of $150 million. Total residential settlements were $31.2 billion, up 19 per cent on the previous year. 
AFG reported a net profit of $19.3 million for the full year on total revenue of $526 million, up 16 per cent. The net interest margin was 1 per cent. No changes were made to the prospectus forecasts. 
AFG's slide pack showed investor loans as a proportion of their book rose strongly from January to April, when they peaked at 43 per cent. Since then, investor loans have fallen to 37 per cent. 
Like Mortgage Choice, which last week reported a full-year cash profit of $18.6 million, down 1.2 per cent, Mr McKeon said AFG would benefit from increased complexity in the market caused by banks' responses to APRA's macro-prudential action. 
"With the product changes in the market, we are in a more difficult landscape and consumers tend to turn to brokers more for advice in that sort of market." 
AFG has a panel of around 30 lenders offered to its brokers - including all the large and regional banks. It said on Thursday it would expand its lending panel over the next 12 months and was in "advanced negotiations with a number of new lenders". 
The company also flagged the announcement in the next couple of days of new white-label mortgage product and said it was exploring options to introduce AFG-branded deposit accounts. 
AFG is also working with Realestate.com.au on a pilot in Victoria that may be rolled out to other states to provide its brokers with leads. "We see that as a good growth opportunity," Mr McKeon said. 
He also said the recent deal with online small business lender Prospa provided an opportunity for brokers to expand their offering and suggested other lenders could be added to that panel. 
"We see opportunity in SME asset lending and more work is being done online in those channels. While it is early days and we still are feeling our way, we expect that will be attractive to a number of brokers and there has already been take-up by our network. The speed of approval is attractive and the terms for brokers are not a lot different," he said. 
AFG brokers have relationships with 600,000 consumers, he said, and "we believe our brokers should be picking up more lending opportunities in their own databases."