13-09-2017, 10:10 PM
MM 9 years numbers (credit: Kyith)
Good morning valuebuddies.
Yes, I peeked at bwl posts today and I just wanted to make a point that bwl is illegal.
Q: Ai yo, don't says that.
A: why not.
Q: It's your assumption wow.
A: why do you says that?
Q: how can bwl be illegal?
A: how not?
Q: how can?
A: seriously, you don't know?
Q: yes, I don't think so.
A: ok, tell me. what's the official storyline on who and what is selling DR'S Secret in China?
Q: Official?
A: yes, tell me. who is selling DR'S Secret in China?
Q: Those shops owner.
A: Yes. tell me, are they on commission scheme?
Q: what do you mean?
A: ai yo, the famous 663 lar. don't act blur lay.
Q: of course, they are.
A: sure?
Q: of course, this is the reason why DR'S Secret is selling like hot cake.
A: is this legal?
Q: what do you mean?
A: legitimate business. that's what I meant.
Q: to bwl or to the shop owner?
A: what's the diff?
Q: to bwl - they don't really control the shop owner.
A: so, to bwl is what?
Q: no control means not my problem.
A: ok. then to the shop owner?
Q: shop owner had not registered under direct selling. they are free to do what they want.
A: then?
Q: then, both bwl and shop owner are legitimate business.
A: ok. I rest my case.
Both hold hands and drink Starbucks 1-for-1 coffee.
MM 9 years numbers (credit: Kyith)
looks very different from 5 years numbers from Brian.
In Brian's 5 years number (2012 - 2016),
all the numbers are perfect!
constant, yearly incremental revenue, GP, NP, cash
with constant ROE 25% and zero debt.
Kyith's 9 years number (2007 to 2016),
projected a completely opposite stories.
Instead of showing in a chart (which will dilute the chaotic situation),
let me do a narrative of it's numbers (rev, GP, NP, cash in general).
We had a good and strong 2007
going up to 2008,
then drop drastically to 2009 and
then climb up strongly to 2010 and
then up in 2010,
up in 2011 and
then down in 2012
then up a bit in 2013,
then up again in 2014, then
a big jump in 2015 and lastly
up a bit in 2016.
In once glance over my narrative or flip back to see Kyith's table,
you'll conclude that it's a erratic business and heavily influenced by market cycle.
So, let's take a pause.
Analysis #1, We rejected MM based on the facts that it's at 52 weeks and 5 years peak price.
It's PE is 14 ( aka more than 8).
It's PB is 3.8 ( aka more than 1).
Analysis #2, when we look at MM 5 year results from 2012 to 2016 (2017 if you do a simple google),
it flies by fantastic color.
Analysis #3, which looks at 9 year results from 2007 to 2016,
concluded that it's a cyclical stocks and hence can not make it again.
Between #2 and #3, one of them must be correct.
An incorrect analysis will either caused a missed opportunity (small matters)
or big losses when the cycle turned (10 years of saving gone).
Thinking, thinking, thinking...
Centuries:
Good morning valuebuddies.
Yes, I peeked at bwl posts today and I just wanted to make a point that bwl is illegal.
Q: Ai yo, don't says that.
A: why not.
Q: It's your assumption wow.
A: why do you says that?
Q: how can bwl be illegal?
A: how not?
Q: how can?
A: seriously, you don't know?
Q: yes, I don't think so.
A: ok, tell me. what's the official storyline on who and what is selling DR'S Secret in China?
Q: Official?
A: yes, tell me. who is selling DR'S Secret in China?
Q: Those shops owner.
A: Yes. tell me, are they on commission scheme?
Q: what do you mean?
A: ai yo, the famous 663 lar. don't act blur lay.
Q: of course, they are.
A: sure?
Q: of course, this is the reason why DR'S Secret is selling like hot cake.
A: is this legal?
Q: what do you mean?
A: legitimate business. that's what I meant.
Q: to bwl or to the shop owner?
A: what's the diff?
Q: to bwl - they don't really control the shop owner.
A: so, to bwl is what?
Q: no control means not my problem.
A: ok. then to the shop owner?
Q: shop owner had not registered under direct selling. they are free to do what they want.
A: then?
Q: then, both bwl and shop owner are legitimate business.
A: ok. I rest my case.
Both hold hands and drink Starbucks 1-for-1 coffee.
MM 9 years numbers (credit: Kyith)
looks very different from 5 years numbers from Brian.
In Brian's 5 years number (2012 - 2016),
all the numbers are perfect!
constant, yearly incremental revenue, GP, NP, cash
with constant ROE 25% and zero debt.
Kyith's 9 years number (2007 to 2016),
projected a completely opposite stories.
Instead of showing in a chart (which will dilute the chaotic situation),
let me do a narrative of it's numbers (rev, GP, NP, cash in general).
We had a good and strong 2007
going up to 2008,
then drop drastically to 2009 and
then climb up strongly to 2010 and
then up in 2010,
up in 2011 and
then down in 2012
then up a bit in 2013,
then up again in 2014, then
a big jump in 2015 and lastly
up a bit in 2016.
In once glance over my narrative or flip back to see Kyith's table,
you'll conclude that it's a erratic business and heavily influenced by market cycle.
So, let's take a pause.
Analysis #1, We rejected MM based on the facts that it's at 52 weeks and 5 years peak price.
It's PE is 14 ( aka more than 8).
It's PB is 3.8 ( aka more than 1).
Analysis #2, when we look at MM 5 year results from 2012 to 2016 (2017 if you do a simple google),
it flies by fantastic color.
Analysis #3, which looks at 9 year results from 2007 to 2016,
concluded that it's a cyclical stocks and hence can not make it again.
Between #2 and #3, one of them must be correct.
An incorrect analysis will either caused a missed opportunity (small matters)
or big losses when the cycle turned (10 years of saving gone).
Thinking, thinking, thinking...
Centuries: