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(17-10-2011, 10:15 PM)pianist Wrote: [ -> ]chosen's one is at No. 107 Moo 1
adampak's one is at No. 136 Moo 1
i think they both suffer the same fate

Situated on different sides or ends of the same road running on a sloping ground or contour can make a real difference in a major flood. Let's see if Adampak announces the same fate as Chosen.

http://www.infoworld.com/t/hard-drives/t...kes-176453

Quote:If you're going to need hard drives this year or early next year, it would be smart to get your sources locked in now.

Disk manufacturing sites in Thailand -- notably including the largest Western Digital plant -- were shut down due to floods around Bangkok last week and are expected to remain shut for at least several more days. The end to flooding is not in sight, and Western Digital now says it could take five to eight months to bring its plants back online. Thailand is a major manufacturer of hard drives, and the shutdowns have reduced the industry's output by 25 percent.

Western Digital, the largest hard disk manufacturer, makes more than 30 percent of all hard drives in the world. Its plants in Ayutthaya's Bang Pa-In Industrial Estate and Pathum Thani's Navanakorn Industrial Estate together produce about 60 percent the company's disks. Both were shut down last Wednesday. (Western Digital also has a major plant in Malaysia that hasn't been affected by the floods, so some production will likely shift to that plant.)

Fourth-ranked hard-disk manufacturer Toshiba makes more than 10 percent of the world's hard disks, and half of its capacity is in Thailand. Toshiba's plant has also been closed due to flooding.

Key disk component suppliers have also been hit. Nidec, which makes more than 70 percent of all hard drive motors, has temporarily suspended operations at all three of its plants in Thailand, affecting 30 percent of its production capacity. Hutchinson Technologies, which makes drive suspension assemblies, has also suspended operations due to power outages, although it says it will shift operations to its U.S. plant.

Seagate, the second-largest hard disk manufacturer, has two plants in Thailand, but neither is in the flooded parts of the country. Seagate notes that "the hard disk drive component supply chain is being disrupted and it is expected that certain component in the supply chain will be constrained." Translation: Component prices are going up, at least for some parts.

It's not clear whether that will affect the prices you pay. As a testament to adequate supply and lower-than-expected demand, retail prices of hard disks have not taken off: You can still get 1TB and larger SATA drives from popular websites for about the same price now as they were in September. Even if manufactuers hold the line on the product price, it's highly that unlikely disk prices will go down any time soon.

This latest Bloomberg report indicates that the worst of the flooding in Thailand is probably over.....
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10...-says.html

With floodwaters in Nakhon Sawan and Ayutthaya provinces north of Bangkok started to recede, and rebuilding is beginning in some areas, I guess Western Digital and Seagate will soon restart their HDD assembly operations in Thailand, and aggressively push for ramping up production volume to meet the massive demand backlog accumulated since the flooding in Thailand which first started in Aug11.

Meanwhile, the supply shortage has allowed Western Digital and Seagate and all those in the supply chain who still have a hand on HDDs to raise selling prices and enjoy a short-term windfall.....
http://www.pcworld.com/article/242807/pr...iland.html

Business Times - 14 Nov 2011

AdamPak's Q3 net profit falls 28%, eye on Thai flood

By YEO AIQI

AdamPak Limited on Monday announced that its net profit for third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 fell by 28.2 per cent to US$1.64 million from a year ago.

Revenue increased by 0.2 per cent year-on-year to US$16.22 million, due to a depreciating US dollar, with higher sales of labels offsetting lower sales of die-cut components.

Bottomline was affected by cost increases and impact of currency fluctuations. Distribution and selling expenses increased due to depreciation of the US dolalr against the group's other operating currencies and salary adjustments.

Going forward, the company warns that flood in Thailand alongside with European debt crisis problems will make conditions challenging.

To minimise disruption to the operations of customers not affected by the flood, the company is using other members of the group to support their requirement in the meantime.

Having taken a close look at Adampak's 3Q results.....
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument [results announcement + press release]
and the USD/SGD forex rate chart - which shows a 5% depreciation of the USD vs. SGD from early Apr to early Sep, before having a sharp 8% spike in the last 3 weeks of Sep....
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDSGD=X&t=1y
I am reinforced in my belief that Adampak is a very well-run company.

It is relevant to note that after paying out a $0.02/share Final dividend for FY10 on 26May11, and a $0.01/share Interim dividend for FY11 on 23Sep11 - totalling USD6.487m - Adampak's reserve cash balance of USD13.01m as at 30Sep11 was still larger than the balance USD12.812m as at 31Dec10. Adampak's B/S as at 30Sep11 remained rock-solid and debt-free.

Interestingly, I was playing around with the Bloomberg Terminal the other day and Adampak was on the list when I ran a screen for 'high dividend yield, strong cashflow and not likely to go bust (altman Z score)' within the SGX universe. Adampak's Altman Z was >7 (highest among all in the list) which is quite mind-boggling given that the cut-off point is 2.675 (higher the better).

More on Altman Z here.

hi kazukirai,

interesting ...

how do you get access to a Bloomberg Terminal? i guess it's the nature of your work that allows you to do so.

Adampak's Altman Z was >7? did u see correctly? i did my computation to verify and couldnt get this figure..mine is not even 3 or 4.

(15-11-2011, 09:53 AM)changwk Wrote: [ -> ]hi kazukirai,

interesting ...

how do you get access to a Bloomberg Terminal? i guess it's the nature of your work that allows you to do so.

Nah, it's not the nature of my work. I'm a humble civil servant.

NLB (the one at Victoria Street, 7th flr, Business Reference section) allows free access (rule state 1 hr per pax per day but I think they're not rigid about it because the one time i used it, i went over the alloted time).

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(15-11-2011, 09:00 PM)pianist Wrote: [ -> ]Adampak's Altman Z was >7? did u see correctly? i did my computation to verify and couldnt get this figure..mine is not even 3 or 4.

Hi Pianist,

After my post I realised that yea, maybe the Altman Z score was 7 is a bit high and I think I might have searched based on last FY filling, if you're using latest financials (quarterlies) to calculate, it might be different.

i see thanks for the reply..nevertheless thanks for sharing this analysis method which prompted me to read today.