ValueBuddies.com : Value Investing Forum - Singapore, Hong Kong, U.S.

(04-06-2014, 04:43 PM)Jack31 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-06-2014, 01:28 PM)Drizzt Wrote: [ -> ]i have taken this table from my post here >> http://www.investmentmoats.com/money-man...7-5-yield/

[Image: qcqqClY.png]

the current profit is around 564, so perhaps fully diluted 8.5 cents. in agm, there was a guy who kept saying he doesn't want to vote for a raise in dividends to 7 cents bcause they cannot pay for it.

Didn't attend the agm, Surprise that someone have the same qns as me of whether they were overstretching themselves with the bump in div. Partly why I was concern is toll road are depreciating assets, if they do not keep building up more cash,
End of toll period = 0

Don't see that as an issue. Unlike business trusts, companies pay out dividends based on their accounting profits which takes into account of depreciation. CM Pacific 'cash earnings' are significantly larger. In FY 2013, after adjusting for dividend payment to minority interests, CM Pacific generated FCF of HK$1.17 billion - this works out to 17 SG cents fully diluted. So one can see that a 7 cent dividend isn't taxing in any way. If it was taxing, we won't see its equity increasing or its net debt dropping. I always thought there were major mispricing when business trust with full cash payout could trade at a lower yield than CM Pacific. Perhaps if it was a business trust with 100% payout, it be trading at $1.70 at fully diluted ! Personally, I believe there is room for dividend increase if they wish to embark on a less aggressive acquisition growth path.

(Vested)

Thanks for the explanation, certainly gonna sleep better at night!

I reckon this is a good news to this company, thus post the news update here.

It has a significant implication on car population in China, IMO...

Chinese consumers switch gears from cash to credit for car buys
23 Jun 2014 06:15
[SHANGHAI] In a country where owning a car has long been a symbol of luxury and success, around 85 percent of Chinese car buyers still buy cars with cash.

But people like Chinese accountant Grace Mi and her peers in their 20s and 30s are changing the car financing game and are the ones catching the attention of global carmakers looking to boost revenue and defend margins in an increasingly competitive market.

These young people are willing to buy big-ticket items like a car on credit - a behaviour unheard of some 15 years ago in China - and have led carmakers to boost their financing units in the mainland.
...
Source: Business Times Breaking News

Thanks Cityfarmer for the article. Personally, I expect continued growth in car ownership in China over the next few decades. Looking at Singapore - despite being a small island with an extensive public transport network, its citizens are quite car-crazy so what more about people living in a much larger country like China !

(Vested)

(24-06-2014, 06:54 PM)Nick Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks Cityfarmer for the article. Personally, I expect continued growth in car ownership in China over the next few decades. Looking at Singapore - despite being a small island with an extensive public transport network, its citizens are quite car-crazy so what more about people living in a much larger country like China !

(Vested)

I couldn't agree more.

Its a lifestyle (face) as well as requirement to travel in a large country.

It would be a cool business to 'reit' parking spaces too.

(waiting for opportunity to be vested)

(24-06-2014, 07:00 PM)orangetea Wrote: [ -> ]

(24-06-2014, 06:54 PM)Nick Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks Cityfarmer for the article. Personally, I expect continued growth in car ownership in China over the next few decades. Looking at Singapore - despite being a small island with an extensive public transport network, its citizens are quite car-crazy so what more about people living in a much larger country like China !

(Vested)

I couldn't agree more.

Its a lifestyle (face) as well as requirement to travel in a large country.

It would be a cool business to 'reit' parking spaces too.

(waiting for opportunity to be vested)

The Link REIT owns the largest portfolio of car parks in Hong Kong. We own and manage approximately 80,000 car park spaces, which are located near most of our retail facilities and many of Hong Kong’s public housing estates, serving the local residents, shoppers and tenants of our retail facilities.

Nick Wrote:The Link REIT owns the largest portfolio of car parks in Hong Kong. We own and manage approximately 80,000 car park spaces, which are located near most of our retail facilities and many of Hong Kong’s public housing estates, serving the local residents, shoppers and tenants of our retail facilities.

Thank you Nick!

Possibly its China (1st tier cities) i am keen. Nevertheless, being HK (Small, tight and prosperous) it is the right market to see inflation like their properties.

I saw an lianhe zaobao article on an interview with the CEO Jiang. He mentioned that he is thinking of venturing into carpark space business. That article is in 2011. I will post it once i get back home.

This is the article. Do note that this is in Chinese.

http://www.qlyjw.com/article/2224.html

首席执行官姜岩飞： 招商局亚太陷入“怪圈

在新加坡上市的150多家龙筹股（中资企业）中，绝大部分的控制大股东是民营企业，只有四家具有国营企业的背景，而这四家上市企业中，招商局亚太有限公司（China Merchants Holdings（Pacific)）的母公司招商局集团是中国历史最悠久的国企，也是目前实力雄厚的中央企业。然而，在新加坡上市的招商局亚太，显得格外低调，股票流通及交易量都非常低。
　　以衡量股票波动率的贝塔系数来看，招商局亚太是0.68，而另外三家有国营企业背景的新加坡龙筹股——中国航油、中远投资及GMG环球，分别是1.29、1.75及1.48。贝塔系数大于1，反映个股的上下波动比大盘更激烈，低过1则比大盘波动低。

　　招商局亚太在2004年重组以来，每年都有盈利，股东的平均股息回报率维持在7％左右。然而，该公司的股价长期以来都低于净资产，导致公司难以通过增发股票融资以进行扩充计划。

　　公司首席执行官姜岩飞形容这是个“怪圈”。他在接受本报专访时指出，由于股票的流通量不够，没有大户进来买，也就没有人去维持股票价格；没有价格，公司就很难增发股票；没有增发股票，更没有流通量。“先有鸡或是先有蛋，这成为了一个怪圈”。

　　招商局亚太的前身是中国光大亚太，而后者是光大集团在1993年收购高登控股后易名的。招商局集团在2001年从光大集团买下了股权后，将公司改名为招商局亚太，并在2004年进行重组，将招商局亚太定位为该集团收费公路业务的发展平台。

　　招商局亚太最近以22.3亿人民币从母公司中收购浙江温州甬台温高速公路的51%股权。目前，该公司在浙江、广西和贵州经营四条收费公路。

　　此外，公司在新西兰的奥克兰有房地产业务。不过，姜岩飞指出，这是过去光大收购高登控股留下来的业务，不是公司目前的发展重点。这个业务目前还在亏损，公司在等待机会脱售以专注收费公路及相关业务。

　　探讨发展停车场业务

　　谈到公司未来计划，姜岩飞指出，除了收购公路外，公司目前正在研究在大城市开发停车场及车辆配套服务，例如保养及洗刷。他说，中国的汽车用量增加非常快，堵车是普遍现象，停车更是老大难的问题。此外，公司也探讨在公路收费区的服务区内，开发商场。

　　在收费公路业务的扩展方面，姜岩飞雄心勃勃地指出，他本身也是招商局华建公路投资有限公司的常务副总经理，华建公路投资目前有160亿人民币的公路资产，整合后是可以注入招商局亚太。

　　从中短期而言，他说，招商局亚太明年争取收购两个公路项目，将公司的总资产从目前的100亿人民币提高到200亿，后年再收购100亿的项目。如果公司有300亿资产，拿到香港上市，将能挤入公路上市公司的前三名，市场会非常重视。

　　从长期而言，他指出，通过华建与招商局亚太的合作，并在资本市场融资，公司的市值可望提高至800到1000亿人民币。招商局亚太目前的市值是4亿1630万新元，或约21亿人民币。

　　他说，中国公路的市场潜能很大，近两三年在建的高速公路约8000至1万公里，对公司的扩张计划，有很大的支撑。

　　由于中国最近实行信贷控制，资金紧张，许多公路投资者面临资金短缺问题，这也为招商局亚太提供更多扩充的条件。姜岩飞说：“中国高速公路的建设高峰期是这三到五年，最多是七年。这个时期大家都缺钱，我不想耽误了一个发展过程。”

　　暂不考虑将公司除牌

　　这也是他目前暂时不考虑将公司从股市除牌的原因。母公司目前在招商局亚太持有高达82.5％的股权，还持有可转换股票的优先股。公司股价及流通量持续低靡，因此除牌是投资中介机构推荐的一个选项。

　　姜岩飞指出，如果将公司从新加坡除牌，那必须等到一两年后才可以在香港上市。这一两年的等待期，将使公司错过扩展项目的时间及市场融资的机会。他希望在这一两年，能够通过新加坡的平台，提高公司的资产规模，然后拿到香港两地上市。

　　他有点纳闷地说：“万事具备，就是股价。股价是市场给的，这个要看市场对公司计划的认可。”如果股价持续低过净资产，股东不会同意以低过净资产的价格发新股，这将制约公司发展的宏图大计。要走出这个怪圈，需要市场的认可，将股价提上来。然而，他说：“刚好这几个月全球市场不好，金融危机后续到底如何，谁也不敢去动。”

　　该公司曾经在上一轮的金融危机前夕，签订框架协议收购河南的两条高速公路，但金融危机爆发后，公司停止所有的项目，收购计划因而终止。在这一轮的欧洲债务危机，姜岩飞与时间赛跑，公司的扩充计划要走在金融危机的前头。

　　他不排除公司除牌的可能性，“（增发资本）实在不行，（除牌）也不是不能考虑。”不过，他对新加坡还是有所期待。“今年到明年上半年，增发资本还是有机会做到的。”

　　他计划将招商局亚太从高派息股转型为“高回报、低风险及扩张快速”的公司。这要看市场的认可，也就是股价的表现。

Thank you!
I will not 'read' but listen using the iphone speech function.
Kind of cool given today's tech advance.