07-07-2013, 05:14 PM
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07-07-2013, 11:34 PM
Something I don't understand, why is the price trading exactly at the offer price $0.88? Even though the offer is almost confirmed, shouldn't there be at least some difference in price? Who is buying in now? I don't think is United SM Holdings. What are the buyers thinking? Do they think that they USM will definitely make a higher offer, hence they are buying in now at offer price?
08-07-2013, 06:51 AM
(07-07-2013, 11:34 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: [ -> ]Something I don't understand, why is the price trading exactly at the offer price $0.88? Even though the offer is almost confirmed, shouldn't there be at least some difference in price? Who is buying in now? I don't think is United SM Holdings. What are the buyers thinking? Do they think that they USM will definitely make a higher offer, hence they are buying in now at offer price?
By paying $0.875 or $0.88 (both before brokerage and SGX fees/GST), buyers/investors now believe and are betting that the Guthrie GTS shares bought are going to be worth more in the future - hopefully in the not too distant future. In a way, they are thinking exactly like Antony Salim/Putra Masagung - together already the majority shareholders with a combined 69.15% controlling interest - behind their present 2nd-attempt and UNCONDITIONAL $0.88/share GO - i.e. the Offeror will take any and all shares from all minority shareholders who turn willing sellers to their $0.88/share cash offer, whether or not the duo eventually get more than 90% which will give them the right to delist Guthrie GTS.
In the first place, what's the real motivation behind Antony Salim/Putra Masagung and their 2nd-attempt and unconditional GO now being pitched at a much higher offer price of $0.88/share - which is still below the latest (as at 31Mar13) revised NAV/share of $0.9775 (after adjusted for the $0.0325/share in total dividends paid out on 21May13) - and likely financed by borrowed money? My own guess is that Guthrie GTS together with LKT have an intention or plan to sell the prized Jurong Point sometime in the future? I guess the money coming in from the disposal should give Antony Salim/Putra Masagung a good-enough extra gain to justify their preparedness to pay $0.88/share cash now for the remaining Guthrie GTS shares.
08-07-2013, 03:54 PM
(07-07-2013, 11:34 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: [ -> ]Something I don't understand, why is the price trading exactly at the offer price $0.88? Even though the offer is almost confirmed, shouldn't there be at least some difference in price? Who is buying in now? I don't think is United SM Holdings. What are the buyers thinking? Do they think that they USM will definitely make a higher offer, hence they are buying in now at offer price?
here is the rational: buy, sell or hold
buy: at 88c, if offer goes through you lose the brokerage. small money as compared to potential upsize of offer. if upsize is 5% more, then equation is 0.3%downside vs 5% upside.
sell: may get 88c, so lose out on brokerage as refuse to wait for the offer to accept and potential lost of upside.
hold: nothing to lose and wait for possible upsize.
given the 3 scenarios above, I think it's no brainer to hold. I didn't consider opportunity cost as there is no guarantee that you can deploy a short term profit especially if you are already holding significant cash.
I did a check on the timeline. It looks like we won't get to see the 2nd q results by the close of the offer. sneaky buggers.
08-07-2013, 04:23 PM
I am also curious why are there still over a million shares on the ask price of 0.88. are the controlling shareholder concerned so much about the commissions they have to pay, to allow the chance of these shares going to other hands?
08-07-2013, 08:22 PM
(08-07-2013, 03:54 PM)Jacmar Wrote: [ -> ](07-07-2013, 11:34 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: [ -> ]Something I don't understand, why is the price trading exactly at the offer price $0.88? Even though the offer is almost confirmed, shouldn't there be at least some difference in price? Who is buying in now? I don't think is United SM Holdings. What are the buyers thinking? Do they think that they USM will definitely make a higher offer, hence they are buying in now at offer price?
here is the rational: buy, sell or hold
buy: at 88c, if offer goes through you lose the brokerage. small money as compared to potential upsize of offer. if upsize is 5% more, then equation is 0.3%downside vs 5% upside.
sell: may get 88c, so lose out on brokerage as refuse to wait for the offer to accept and potential lost of upside.
hold: nothing to lose and wait for possible upsize.
given the 3 scenarios above, I think it's no brainer to hold. I didn't consider opportunity cost as there is no guarantee that you can deploy a short term profit especially if you are already holding significant cash.
I did a check on the timeline. It looks like we won't get to see the 2nd q results by the close of the offer. sneaky buggers.
I sold off my holding on Guthrie and switched to another undervalued stock LKH. Patiently wait for the attractive dividend yield as well as the TOP on Paya Lebar square and their Parkland residences in year 2014.
11-07-2013, 10:31 AM
Guthrie reached $0.885 today, after the announcement dispatch of the offer document.
What does it mean? *puzzled*
What does it mean? *puzzled*
11-07-2013, 09:36 PM
http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_Corpor...110713.pdf
What happens after the closing date if they did not meet 90%?
Quote:3.4 Aggregate Holdings
Accordingly, based on information available to the Offeror, as at 5.00 p.m. on 11 July 2013,
the Offeror and its Concert Parties owned, controlled or have agreed to acquire (including by
way of valid acceptances of the Offer) an aggregate of 753,997,375 Shares3
, representing approximately 69.95% of the total number of issued Shares.
4. CLOSING DATE
The Offer remains open for acceptance until 5.30 p.m. (Singapore time) on 7 August 2013
or such later date(s) as may be announced from time to time by or on behalf of the Offeror
(the “Closing Date”).
What happens after the closing date if they did not meet 90%?
11-07-2013, 10:08 PM
Then GUTHRIE will remain listed in sgx....
11-07-2013, 10:10 PM
(11-07-2013, 10:31 AM)Wildreamz Wrote: [ -> ]Guthrie reached $0.885 today, after the announcement dispatch of the offer document.
What does it mean? *puzzled*
Nothing puzzling. It just means that those holding to it and wants to sell at 0.88 can now simply fill the form and get the money without any fees paid. As such, logically market need to pay 0.005 more to get pple to sell. Simple as that.
