Greek Default 2015 Poll

[sgd]

there's no question if drachma currency became cheap because of exit from euro means things in that country is going be cheap somebody somewhere is going to want it.

currency goes down doesn't mean end of the world for that country when ringgit went kaput in 97 we still traded with them to our big advantage.

Say example we both are countries our currency 1 to 1, say you lend me in your currency and I owe you say 1 billion later your currency takes bad a hit and dives by half so now I it cost me 500 million to buy your currency to pay you back 1 billion that I owe.

This what happen in in the 80's a lot of countries like china eastern bloc owed money to ussr but when ussr ruble started collpasing they started buying it up to pay back russia on the cheap.

they will probably peg drachma to some more stable currency to stabalize.

[BlueKelah]

Desmondxyz . I dun think another haircut would be any use. Greece is just trying to grab more free money by playing euro politics and let their people relax in the sun. In fact a lot of the more indebted euro countries are also in pretty bad shape and still trying to turn their economies around and pay their debts but still not cutting back much on spending and welfare. So no matter how much hair is cut, the debt/hair will just keep growing..

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

[GFG]

Desmondxyz . I dun think another haircut would be any use. Greece is just trying to grab more free money by playing euro politics and let their people relax in the sun. In fact a lot of the more indebted euro countries are also in pretty bad shape and still trying to turn their economies around and pay their debts but still not cutting back much on spending and welfare. So no matter how much hair is cut, the debt/hair will just keep growing..

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

Exactly.
And their leaders are trying to get more bailout money, not to implement reforms that make their economy more competitive, but rather to sustain the so called "Red lines" which include INCREASING or maintaining the PENSIONS for their public servants!

So more bailout $$$ not to build infrastructure, not to support entrepreneurs to set up businesses, not to encourage business friendly policies BUT to support pensions.
No wonder the germans and pretty much everyone else finds it hard to swallow.
I still voted no though cos I don't think they will default this month.
They'll find some way to come up with a temporary band aid and kick the can as far down the road as they can.

Eventually though, the chickens always come home to roost.

[brattzz]

this bonds well for china as cheap assets will be fire-sale!

Go ahead and DEFAULT GREEK!

Eurozone will survive better!

[BlueKelah]

Heh imf pissed off liao, finished their talking. In the end is no money no talk.

it seems like more buddies are starting to vote that Greece will not default

[Greenrookie]

Hi buddies,

Got a qn, why is default on IMF 1.6 billion being equated with Grexit?

I can follow about the capital control to prevent capital flight, loss of payment to all levers of economy, but isn't Euro membership a political decision than a economic one?

Why can't Greece default and stay in Euro?

[lilvestor]

Hi buddies,

Got a qn, why is default on IMF 1.6 billion being equated with Grexit?

I can follow about the capital control to prevent capital flight, loss of payment to all levers of economy, but isn't Euro membership a political decision than a economic one?

Why can't Greece default and stay in Euro?

They will have to leave because the ECB will have to stop the ELA (funding to Greek banks) once Greece defaults, Greek banks will immediately become insolvent without the ELA because they will have no liquidity (euros for now), the only way is for the Greek govt to print drachmas if they want to save the banking system.

[sgd]

well if they go back to drachmas it could tank against euros so internally people will continue to have hardship for a while imports will be expensive.

but external trade could improve because greek products and goods could be cheap and they surrounded by euro countries external trade could bring in euros from these places.

And we see china who is using greek ports as a gateway into europe so that could be their saving grace.

with time those euros debts could be repaid, things could gradually improve time changes everything. You me everybody we want to eat and dress live well, upgrade our standard of living and we want that for our children too so why not people in greece after so much hardship want that too? So if nobody hounding them for money everyday give it time I think things as a whole could improve over there.

Default is like a reset everything has a chance to start over new but that's provided they don't mess up the politics like in argentina.

[GFG]

well if they go back to drachmas it could tank against euros so internally people will continue to have hardship for a while imports will be expensive.

but external trade could improve because greek products and goods could be cheap and they surrounded by euro countries external trade could bring in euros from these places.

And we see china who is using greek ports as a gateway into europe so that could be their saving grace.

with time those euros debts could be repaid, things could gradually improve time changes everything. You me everybody we want to eat and dress live well, upgrade our standard of living and we want that for our children too so why not people in greece after so much hardship want that too? So if nobody hounding them for money everyday give it time I think things as a whole could improve over there.

Default is like a reset everything has a chance to start over new but that's provided they don't mess up the politics like in argentina.

Once they go back to Drachma aka default, there wont be any euro debts to be repaid. The vast bulk of the debt will essentially be worthless.
Also, Greece as a nation, doesn't export much. Most of their income comes from tourism related sectors. Of course, this sector will receive a boost if the nation goes back to drachma.
In the long run, default is probably the best option. In the short term though, it'll be hell with likely hyperinflation and bank runs. Total chaos.

[specuvestor]

Yea Greece is actually more trade and tourism related. Guess what happens to these 2 when the economy goes into chaos

That said I've never seen or read a sovereign country "die" due to debt, not even Germany. Iceland came close.