Australia Property

[soros]

I am sure you and I will not be the buyers at bargain prices.

I remember under the OZ property rules , foreigners are only allowed to buy new build property.

Second hand property is for local residents ls only.

[specuvestor]

(Bloomberg) -- The housing boom that has seen Australian home prices more than double since the turn of the century is “officially over,” after data showed prices now flatlining, UBS Group AG said.
National house prices were unchanged in October from September, while annual growth has slowed to 7 percent from more than 10 percent as recently as July, CoreLogic data released Wednesday showed.
“There is now a persistent and sharp slowdown unfolding,” UBS economists led by George Tharenou said in a report. “This suggests a tightening of financial conditions is unfolding, which we expect to weigh on consumption growth via a fading household-wealth effect.”

[specuvestor]

Talked about this for more than 3 years... that's how long it can take for a bubble to burst

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4912...l#pid95371

SGD did reach parity with AUD and Aussie govt did act with Macroprudential policy; but market rolled over just fairly recent

(Bloomberg) -- The party is finally winding down for Australia’s housing market. How severe the hangover is will determine the economy’s fate for years to come.
After five years of surging prices, the market value of the nation’s homes has ballooned to A$7.3 trillion ($5.6 trillion) -- or more than four times gross domestic product. Not even the U.S. and U.K. markets achieved such heights at their peaks a decade ago before prices spiraled lower and dragged their economies with them.
Australia’s obsession with property is firmly entrenched in the nation’s economy and psyche, fueled by record-low interest rates, generous tax breaks, banks hooked on mortgage lending, and prime-time TV shows where home renovators are lauded like sporting heroes. For many, homes morphed into cash machines to finance loans for boats, cars and investment properties. The upshot: households are now twice as indebted as China’s.

--snip--

[BlueKelah]

Talked about this for more than 3 years... that's how long it can take for a bubble to burst

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4912...l#pid95371

SGD did reach parity with AUD and Aussie govt did act with Macroprudential policy; but market rolled over just fairly recent

(Bloomberg) -- The party is finally winding down for Australia’s housing market. How severe the hangover is will determine the economy’s fate for years to come.
After five years of surging prices, the market value of the nation’s homes has ballooned to A$7.3 trillion ($5.6 trillion) -- or more than four times gross domestic product. Not even the U.S. and U.K. markets achieved such heights at their peaks a decade ago before prices spiraled lower and dragged their economies with them.
Australia’s obsession with property is firmly entrenched in the nation’s economy and psyche, fueled by record-low interest rates, generous tax breaks, banks hooked on mortgage lending, and prime-time TV shows where home renovators are lauded like sporting heroes. For many, homes morphed into cash machines to finance loans for boats, cars and investment properties. The upshot: households are now twice as indebted as China’s.

--snip--

Actually Perth and Darwin prices already started going down after peaking in 2014, those bubbles deflated right after we talked about it...

Just the lowering of interest rates to 1.5% by RBA kept things booming in Sydney and Melbourne for past 3 years.

Now rates steady and credit tightening with new banking regulations, Sydney market already started going down past couple months and soon Melbourne will follow. Soft or hard landing next year is the question.

[Boon]

Talked about this for more than 3 years... that's how long it can take for a bubble to burst

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4912...l#pid95371

SGD did reach parity with AUD and Aussie govt did act with Macroprudential policy; but market rolled over just fairly recent

(Bloomberg) -- The party is finally winding down for Australia’s housing market. How severe the hangover is will determine the economy’s fate for years to come.
After five years of surging prices, the market value of the nation’s homes has ballooned to A$7.3 trillion ($5.6 trillion) -- or more than four times gross domestic product. Not even the U.S. and U.K. markets achieved such heights at their peaks a decade ago before prices spiraled lower and dragged their economies with them.
Australia’s obsession with property is firmly entrenched in the nation’s economy and psyche, fueled by record-low interest rates, generous tax breaks, banks hooked on mortgage lending, and prime-time TV shows where home renovators are lauded like sporting heroes. For many, homes morphed into cash machines to finance loans for boats, cars and investment properties. The upshot: households are now twice as indebted as China’s.

--snip--

Actually Perth and Darwin prices already started going down after peaking in 2014, those bubbles deflated right after we talked about it...

Just the lowering of interest rates to 1.5% by RBA kept things booming in Sydney and Melbourne for past 3 years.

Now rates steady and credit tightening with new banking regulations, Sydney market already started going down past couple months and soon Melbourne will follow. Soft or hard landing next year is the question.

What goes up has to come down eventually – it applies to share price, interest rate, FX (including SGD/AUD), and property prices - we ALL know that – that’s the easy part.
 
Question is “when” and “by how much” – that's the hard part.
 
Is “party winding down” same as “bubble bursting” ? 
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Will Australia House Prices Crash ?
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/wi...ices-crash

Not just 'dumb luck': AMP says Australia's economy is more resilient than many believe
SAM JACOBS
NOV 23, 2017, 9:53 AM
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/austr...nt-2017-11
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[Boon]

Sydney's property market FINALLY comes off the boil: Sellers are knocking up to $550,000 off their asking prices to get a sale - so is now the time to buy?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...rices.html

• House prices in Sydney appear to have taken a dip as owners discount prices
  
• Up to $550K was cut from an asking price as vendors take steep measures to sell
  
• In the inner west's Russell Lea and Drummoyne sellers slashed 15-20 per cent off
  
• The highest decreases were recorded in Vaucluse with an average of 27 per cent
  

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5002824/Sydney-house-prices-dip-sellers-cut-prices.html#ixzz4wr5gnAic
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

How about this house in Vauclause ?


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Singapore tycoon C.K. Ow lines up for a shot at Sydney’s $70 million house price record

LUCY MACKENTWITTERDOMAIN PRESTIGE REPORTER OCT 14, 2017

https://www.domain.com.au/news/singapore...14-gyx16z/
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[Boon]

Australian housing: How weak are the vital signs ?
26 Nov 2017
By Su-Lin Tan
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/australia...025-gz7psb

IMF: Don’t expect any correction in Australia’s housing affordability
By Gerv Tacadena 
21 NOV 2017
https://www.yourmortgage.com.au/mortgage...ty/243906/

Sydney’s top-end properties stand out from crowd, boosting auction clearance rate
CHRIS TOLHURST
PROPERTY REPORTER NOV 26, 2017
https://www.domain.com.au/news/auction-v...26-gzt46b/
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[soros]

Tycoon CK Ow is selling his Sydney house and may be getting A$60 Mil capital gain.

Does he get 50% discount and pay tax at 46% on $30 Mil Capital Gain ?.

[specuvestor]

Talked about this for more than 3 years... that's how long it can take for a bubble to burst

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4912...l#pid95371

SGD did reach parity with AUD and Aussie govt did act with Macroprudential policy; but market rolled over just fairly recent

(Bloomberg) -- The party is finally winding down for Australia’s housing market. How severe the hangover is will determine the economy’s fate for years to come.
After five years of surging prices, the market value of the nation’s homes has ballooned to A$7.3 trillion ($5.6 trillion) -- or more than four times gross domestic product. Not even the U.S. and U.K. markets achieved such heights at their peaks a decade ago before prices spiraled lower and dragged their economies with them.
Australia’s obsession with property is firmly entrenched in the nation’s economy and psyche, fueled by record-low interest rates, generous tax breaks, banks hooked on mortgage lending, and prime-time TV shows where home renovators are lauded like sporting heroes. For many, homes morphed into cash machines to finance loans for boats, cars and investment properties. The upshot: households are now twice as indebted as China’s.

--snip--

Actually Perth and Darwin prices already started going down after peaking in 2014, those bubbles deflated right after we talked about it...

Just the lowering of interest rates to 1.5% by RBA kept things booming in Sydney and Melbourne for past 3 years.

Now rates steady and credit tightening with new banking regulations, Sydney market already started going down past couple months and soon Melbourne will follow. Soft or hard landing next year is the question.

What goes up has to come down eventually – it applies to share price, interest rate, FX (including SGD/AUD), and property prices - we ALL know that – that’s the easy part.
 
Question is “when” and “by how much” – that's the hard part.
 
Is “party winding down” same as “bubble bursting” ? 
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Will Australia House Prices Crash ?
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/wi...ices-crash

Not just 'dumb luck': AMP says Australia's economy is more resilient than many believe
SAM JACOBS
NOV 23, 2017, 9:53 AM
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/austr...nt-2017-11
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Actually I think the “when” part is the most difficult. For me to take an interest, the decline should be more than 20% from here

There are those who ride bubbles. There are those who avoid bubbles. Both cannot be sure of when but both can win depending on the time frame.

[Boon]

Decline of 20% from here.
Which market? Each capital cities has its own market dynamics and hence property cycles
Starting time = now
Ending time = ?
What's your basis of 20% decline from here?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RBA's Philip Lowe explains Sydney, Melbourne's 'superstar' house prices
22 Nov 2017


Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has lent credence to the rise of the "superstar" city, a phenomenon Sydney and Melbourne are both part of, and which appears to rationalise high house prices beyond the effect of low interest rates.
Following Dr Lowe's address to the Australian Business Economists in Sydney on Tuesday, where he reiterated "there is not a case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy" despite being more upbeat on the outlook for business investment, the governor was asked his opinion on the housing market.

"We shouldn't really talk about the Australian housing market," he said, alluding to the disparity in performance between cities. In Sydney and Melbourne, the ratio of house prices to income has "moved up a lot".
"It's interesting why that's happening, when I talk to my colleagues in other central banks they're noticing a similar phenomenon in some of their countries where you've got one or two cities where the house price to income ratios have stepped up a lot and most other cities in the country that hasn't occurred.

"One explanation is that there's growth in these superstar cities but for some reason the economic or social returns for living in specific cities has risen and people are prepared to pay higher prices to live in those cities."

Dr Lowe nominated Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland, Vancouver, Toronto, Stockholm, Amsterdam and San Francisco as other beneficiaries of this trend.

"Low interest rates have added to that but basically people are prepared to pay a lot more to live in certain cities and we don't fully understand why that is, but it's a common thing across the board."

In Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, house price to income ratios have not "really moved anywhere for a decade and a half" in trend terms.

Economist and outgoing chairman of the ABE, Stephen Halmarick, recalled hearing similar sentiments from the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, John Williams.

Sydney and Melbourne benefit not just from being destination cities, but having good government by international standards, he said.

"They're very attractive to international investors but also very good for education. That's part of it as well," underlining the importance of the quality of services.

As for the implications for monetary policy setting of having outlier housing markets, "Probably there's not much you can do about that, there's bigger forces at play than the level of interest rates.

"It also plays into [the RBA's] narrative that they didn't want to cut interest rates any more because that would have added a bit of fuel to the fire of the housing market."

No excess supply in Melbourne

Dr Lowe expanded on the dynamics at play in the Melbourne market, where he appeared to convey confidence that Melbourne was not facing an oversupply problem on any enduring level.

"In Melbourne it's hard to tell about the supply and demand dynamic, the population though in Melbourne is growing at 3 per cent a year, that's incredibly fast. In three years' time there will be nearly 10 per cent more people living in Melbourne," he said.
"You need to build a lot of housing to cope with that and I suspect that while there might be some pockets in Melbourne of excess supply, it's very unlikely that Melbourne will find itself with too many dwellings with the population growing at 3 per cent a year.

"The area where there's kind of excess supply is really in the Brisbane inner-city apartment market, that's the clearest example, but elsewhere I don't really have major concerns over supply and demand [imbalance]."

St George economist Besa Deda, who posed the question on housing at Tuesday's event, said the other factor unifying Sydney, Melbourne and Vancouver was "significant" foreign investment into residential housing.

"The message I got was because Melbourne is a superstar city, it was indicating that it's unlikely Melbourne will have too many dwellings and if that's the case, there's a floor for house price growth. That doesn't mean you might not have a slowing, but the downside will be limited somewhat."

Ms Deda still believed there would be pockets of oversupply emerging in parts of Melbourne.

"Having said that, you can still have a shortage of dwellings and see house price falls," indeed this happened in response to the RBA's last tightening cycle.


Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/rbas-philip-lowe-explains-sydney-melbournes-superstar-house-prices-20171122-gzqklo#ixzz4zfywRSx6 
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