Property Market Sentiments

[specuvestor]

The government policy is to segregate pte and public housing. In theory the govt does not care about pte property prices but care about HDB to provide roof over head, which is critical also to gain vested interest in an immigrant society, until it morphed into an "investment" during 2G leadership.

In practice however pte housing became a status symbol and the "envy" incentive that Buffett mentioned drove "common" people to aspire to upgrade (plus the investment mentality even for leasehold), hence government even had to come up with EC to satisfy the voting populace

The issue now is that the large gains in the pte property is flooding into the public housing as sellers cash out and downgrade or wait for new TOP. Think more than a decade ago the waiting period was 24-30 months in order to minimise this overflow effect from the segregation policy, but not sure which genius changed it

Reminds me of the genius that changed the loan period to 10 years and zero down payment of cars to make it more affordable. Scary when bureaucrats can only think linear like in textbook questions instead of 2nd or 3rd order impacts.

A 15 months wait-out period for private residential property owner and former owners of private residential properties to buy a non-subsidised HDB resale flat, will this result in an increase in private residential property due to higher demand? Thereby further fueling the increase in prices for private residential properties? Will this solve one problem by creating another?

[CY09]

Hi Specuvestor,

A number of public housing policies has been modified since the founding fathers left, one old rule was that public housing could only be owned/or even subleased to SC/PRs and their immediate family members. Those were the good times when having a public housing was a good way to forge a national identiity and community ties.

On your point of " Scary when bureaucrats can only think linear like in textbook questions instead of 2nd or 3rd order impacts.", Jerome Powell comes to mind. His rapid hike of rates relative to other nation's central banks is putting strains on other currencies and is pushing them close to a currency crisis and inflationary measures. The world is more inter connected than before, hence the 2nd and 3rd order effects are going to be strong and inherent.

[BigFatWhale]

Given the macro conditions, the all-time highs set by the Singapore's property market seem surreal.

We take a deep look into recent developments that could derail the upward trajectory:

• Halt in Money Press
  
• Dominio Effect
  
• Interest Rate Rising
  
• Job Loss Fears
  

Click Here for the Full Article:


https://thebigfatwhale.com/likely-proper...singapore/

[brattzz]

it will only go higher! Singapore's property is international business and caters to the world's riches, not just it's own residents!

the rich don't really bother about these dampers, they keep looking for value buys, especially in poor market conditions...
to them, Singapore's properties are still relatively cheap! a form of capitial preservation!

[Ben]

I share the same sentiment as brattzz. Many HNWI are coming to Spore to park their wealth, due to the political stability in Spore and also our strong and stable currency. A friend working in a law firm is receiving increased inquiries from wealthy individuals in China to set up family office here, after the conclusion of the 20th National Congress of the CCP

[CY09]

Personally, this is a great tax opportunity (thinking like a MOF civil servant). If foreigners are snapping up private residential due to our stability, safety because of the infrastructure built by our country. Pherhaps we should consider increasing the owner occupier tax for condos (likely in the Annual Value ("AV)" bracket of $55,000 and above according to IRAS) (current tax rate is 6% of "AV", next year will be 10% of "AV" for $55,000 bracket)

In exchange of a refuge and safety of wealth (tax haven) from the clutches of the communist or oppressive regime, we can get more taxes. Helps to defray our increasing cost of running the government system and defence here : )

[brattzz]

CY09, yes indeed! Singapore's strengths and attractiveness has to be funded by cold, hard $$$, and the world riches are bringing their $$$ to invest in Singapore's property, this is absolutely great for Singapore!!! the economic value add that the world riches are bringing to Singapore is a serious additional gain to Singapore's economic gains!

GST has to some catch up to do with normalized % VAT in Europe,

Nope, don't be silly to impose "wealth tax"!

Be a fair and attractive country, and the world riches will continue to invest in sg!

(Gov gains will spill over to % of HDB's grants to BTOs, to make up the gap between income, relative to hdb's prices/pte properties prices)
sg resident's income must grow to catch up too!

[CY09]

CY09, yes indeed! Singapore's strengths and attractiveness has to be funded by cold, hard $$$, and the world riches are bringing their $$$ to invest in Singapore's property, this is absolutely great for Singapore!!! the economic value add that the world riches are bringing to Singapore is a serious additional gain to Singapore's economic gains!

GST has to some catch up to do with normalized % VAT in Europe,

Nope, don't be silly to impose "wealth tax"!

Be a fair and attractive country, and the world riches will continue to invest in sg!

(Gov gains will spill over to % of HDB's grants to BTOs, to make up the gap between income, relative to hdb's prices/pte properties prices)
sg resident's income must grow to catch up too!

(Gov gains will spill over to % of HDB's grants to BTOs, to make up the gap between income, relative to hdb's prices/pte properties prices)

sg resident's income must grow to catch up too!--> the last paragraph is not happening. This is why the growth of housing prices outpaces wage growth

[brattzz]

CY09,

"sg resident's income must grow to catch up too!--> the last paragraph is not happening. This is why the growth of housing prices outpaces wage growth Sad"

1) You can go for EC, or Condo directly,

2) For HDB's BTOs/EC projects, it's the current supply chain issue, there is a supply lag, up to 15-25 months, so HDB imposed the latest measure to delay purchase for resale flats for pte downgraders, - 80% of sg residents stays/lease/own HDBs/EC..etc.. so sg gov will just take care of that 80% enough to keep the complaints down...

3) For remaining 20% and Pte properties, it's not sg gov's main focus, as long as there is not too much hurt (TDSR etc) to sg finance economy if/when the bubbles bursts! but it's not going to burst as it's an international business/investment, world riches are definitely enough liquidity to buy up 10-20x volume of sg Pte investment properties!

so huat har!

[CY09]

Thanks Bratzz, I was referring to the HDB resale market where the price growth exceeds the income growth as well (this is one area I have particular interest in because I need to buy a resale soon as well. I am facing a challenge between owning a public housing and balancing retirement adequacy). In my earlier post, I had listed down my financial situation and am staring at a "shortened retirement" due to the desire to purchase a HDB 3 room resale.

Yes, supply chain is presumably an issue. I do hope HDB ramps up its BTO projects, there are vacant land banks at Mount Pleasant, Bouna Vista (not referring to the Dover forest area) which are zoned residential (about 40 Ha) which can be used for housing but not yet activated for BTO projects