Good morning valuebuddies.
I'm glad to be woke up by the birds chirping happily in the wood.
If you're lucky enough, woke up by the lion (dance) too.
Such a bright and cooling morning, let me start by wishing every valuebuddies:
Gong Xi Fa Cai.
Buy toto, strike toto.
Buy 4D, strike 4D.
Buy more, strike more.
Many season valuebuddies will view analyst report as supplementary info.
To majority of us, analyst report is actually a must read.
Of course, what and how we make use of the forecast data and recommendations,
varies from person to person and from time to time.
I had extracted the key points from last 3 years analyst reports
as a reminder of the passing time passage for Micro Mechanics.
What had happened and how an analyst (in particular Paul Chew) see MM's business case;
how he started being too optimistic in predicting good results in Sep 2017
until Jan 2019 when his expectation is trimmed down again and again.
William TNG is the guy everyone should watch out.
From the price chart below, William wrote an excellent piece of work for 5DD back in April 2016 when it's price was 80 cents.
One year later,
Teh Kwong Yew follow up with another piece of good work in Aug 2017.
Then, Paul Chew took over in Sep 2017 and st to cover 5DD.
20160406 William Tng cimb
Tool-making specialist
a. Long-time supplier of high-precision tools for semincon A&T
b. Higher penetration and increasing productivity spur EPS growth
c. Turnaround of CMA - a potential catalyst
20170822 Teh Kwong Yew maybank-kim-eng[url=http://micromechanics.listedcompany.com/misc/April16-MMH-CIMB.pdf][/url]
Chip equipment tool specialist
a. Machine tool demand buoyed by booming chip sales
b. One-stop shop for micro-prcision tooling needs
c. As long as chips are made, tools are required
d. Valuation and dividend yield
20170922 Paul Chew phillip-securities
High margin, high ROE consumables business
a. GP 60%, ROE 30% consumables business with 15-year earnings CAGR of 20%
b. Expect strong earnings momentum from current surge in semiconductor industry sales
c.
$2.00 target price, Initiate BUY
20171131 Paul Chew phillip-securities
A record in both revenue and profits
a. 1Q18 revenue and earnings were double the growth rate we expected
b. Raise our FY18e forecast earnings by 18% to S$21.7mn, sales growth from 11% to 25%
c.
$2.50 target price
20171218 Paul Chew phillip-securities
From liquidity to a business cycle, The Phillip Absolute 10
a. Will register earnings growth at attractive valuations
b.
$2.50 target price
20171218 Paul Chew phillip-securities
A Turbocharged 2018
a. 1Q18 earning rose 53%, we expect another stellar quarter of earnings
b. 15-year track record of 20% earings CAGR with gross profit margin averaging 55%
c.
$2.50 target price
20180130 Paul Chew phillip-securities
Record Quarter but a deceleration in Momentunm
a. 2Q18 revenue below expectation. reducing FY18e forecast earning by 7%
b. weak USD hurt top-line momentum in 2Q18
c.
$2.50 target price
d. downgrade to ACCUMULATE after share price surge
20180502 Paul Chew phillip-securities
Healthy Growth Against Aggressive Expectations
a. 3Q18 revenue fall short of expectation, trimming FY18e forecast earning by 10%
b. Margin hurt by capaicty expansion and accounting changes
c.
$2.30 target price
d. upgrade to buy after share price correction
20180829 Paul Chew phillip-securities
Consumables provide resiliency
a. 4Q18 revenue 3% below expectation. trimming FY19e forecast earning by 14%
b. Margin hurt by depreciation (as capex doubled in FY18) and weaker sales in SG/Malaysia
c.
$2.30 target price
d. Resilient product line and surpise upside on front-end business
20181101 Paul Chew phillip-securities
Cyclical slowdown, but still attractive metrics
a. Revenue below expectation. trimming FY19e forecast earning by 5%
b. Revenue down in line with industry but gross profit margins still 60%
c.
$2.05 target price
d. Maintain BUY recommendation
20190130 Paul Chew phillip-securities
A difficult comp
a. 2Q19 revenue below expectation. lowering FY19e forecast revenue by 5%
b. Top-line hurt by slowdown semincon demand, US-China trade
c.
$1.70 target price
d. lower recommendation to ACCUMULATE