The Hong Kong security law has just been passed. What are the implications on the economy in Hong Kong?
The following are purely my own guesses:
- Potential for large scale demonstrations in future greatly reduced. Isolated incidents involving smaller groups of people gradually taper off and die down.
- The vast majority of people in Hong Kong, including pro-democracy supporters, will find it easier to keep quiet and carry on with life.
- A small minority tries to migrate elsewhere. These include:
- "Hardcore" pro-democracy activists
- People who fear that the security law will be interpreted broadly enough to affect the average person.
- People already unhappy with life in Hong Kong
- Improved safety is good for businesses catering to the mass-market, such as retail, restaurants, suburban malls etc. This helps in post-covid recovery.
- In the mid to long term, mainlanders gradually regain confidence in Hong Kong as a destination for work, sightseeing, and investment. This is good for higher end destination malls and high-end properties for example.
- Hong Kong remains a financial center by virtues of having free movement of capital, at least for the next 10-20 years.
- Slightly less people from the west would want to work in Hong Kong, due to perceived risk of imprisonment if the law is interpreted too broadly. Small number of businesses/jobs relocate elsewhere to places like Taiwan, Singapore.
- Special trade relations with USA may end, and businesses manufacturing in Hong Kong and exporting to USA gets hit.
- Less investments from the West, offset by increased investments from mainland China.
Would like to hear the opinions of other VBs. Also, feel free to vote in the poll above.
The following are purely my own guesses:
- Potential for large scale demonstrations in future greatly reduced. Isolated incidents involving smaller groups of people gradually taper off and die down.
- The vast majority of people in Hong Kong, including pro-democracy supporters, will find it easier to keep quiet and carry on with life.
- A small minority tries to migrate elsewhere. These include:
- "Hardcore" pro-democracy activists
- People who fear that the security law will be interpreted broadly enough to affect the average person.
- People already unhappy with life in Hong Kong
- Improved safety is good for businesses catering to the mass-market, such as retail, restaurants, suburban malls etc. This helps in post-covid recovery.
- In the mid to long term, mainlanders gradually regain confidence in Hong Kong as a destination for work, sightseeing, and investment. This is good for higher end destination malls and high-end properties for example.
- Hong Kong remains a financial center by virtues of having free movement of capital, at least for the next 10-20 years.
- Slightly less people from the west would want to work in Hong Kong, due to perceived risk of imprisonment if the law is interpreted too broadly. Small number of businesses/jobs relocate elsewhere to places like Taiwan, Singapore.
- Special trade relations with USA may end, and businesses manufacturing in Hong Kong and exporting to USA gets hit.
- Less investments from the West, offset by increased investments from mainland China.
Would like to hear the opinions of other VBs. Also, feel free to vote in the poll above.