KSH Holdings

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#91
From what I observe the steady rise is not just due to news leak but very non stop buying by parties which seem to squeezing those who shorted the stock. 

For High Park its not a one time booking for profit, so I think it will be recognized slowly. I think KSH will post steadily good profits for next 2-3 years due to its interest in good sales projects like NeWest, KAP, HIgh Park etc. But the stock has outperformed other property counters so I am hoping the rest will catch up. Still many people don't like to own property stocks but I think price wise they have bottomed a few months ago. The glut of completions in 2016/7 if it means prices don't fall too low during that time, is probably the bottom of property prices in Singapore. Property stock prices move ahead of this u-turn, so I expect this sector to be revalued up in 2016/7.

Many property stocks now trade at 40-60% discount to RNAV which is definitely not the top of the stock price cycles and more closer to the bottom of the charts before they rise again.
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#91
From what I observe the steady rise is not just due to news leak but very non stop buying by parties which seem to squeezing those who shorted the stock. 

For High Park its not a one time booking for profit, so I think it will be recognized slowly. I think KSH will post steadily good profits for next 2-3 years due to its interest in good sales projects like NeWest, KAP, HIgh Park etc. But the stock has outperformed other property counters so I am hoping the rest will catch up. Still many people don't like to own property stocks but I think price wise they have bottomed a few months ago. The glut of completions in 2016/7 if it means prices don't fall too low during that time, is probably the bottom of property prices in Singapore. Property stock prices move ahead of this u-turn, so I expect this sector to be revalued up in 2016/7.

Many property stocks now trade at 40-60% discount to RNAV which is definitely not the top of the stock price cycles and more closer to the bottom of the charts before they rise again.
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#92
I thought initially high park residence is progressive recognition. But the table from pg 15 in this qrt result showed revenue recognition method is on project completion.


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#92
I thought initially high park residence is progressive recognition. But the table from pg 15 in this qrt result showed revenue recognition method is on project completion.


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#93
(13-11-2015, 04:56 AM)kyle Wrote: I thought initially high park residence is progressive recognition. But the table from pg 15 in this qrt result showed revenue recognition method is on project completion.  


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Ya, you are right Kyle. Didn't spot there. A tad odd, but maybe they want to postpone profit there till 2018 as 2016/7 will alredy see steady contribution from its other projects. They have a right to do it I think cos it has a commercial portion in the project.
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#93
(13-11-2015, 04:56 AM)kyle Wrote: I thought initially high park residence is progressive recognition. But the table from pg 15 in this qrt result showed revenue recognition method is on project completion.  


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ya, you are right Kyle. Didn't spot there. A tad odd, but maybe they want to postpone profit there till 2018 as 2016/7 will alredy see steady contribution from its other projects. They have a right to do it I think cos it has a commercial portion in the project.
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#94
(13-11-2015, 05:54 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote:
(13-11-2015, 04:56 AM)kyle Wrote: I thought initially high park residence is progressive recognition. But the table from pg 15 in this qrt result showed revenue recognition method is on project completion.  


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Ya, you are right Kyle. Didn't spot there. A tad odd, but maybe they want to postpone profit there till 2018 as 2016/7 will alredy see steady contribution from its other projects. They have a right to do it I think cos it has a commercial portion in the project.

I think likely just typo error in the KSH report...  Excels... someone duplicate "the preceeding row" and make changes.

CES report did not specifiy, while Heeton said "to have positive impact... beyond FY2015"

The 9 comm shops combined SLA is so small - only 3206 sqft SLA - and sold for only $7.804m @ave $2434 psfSLA
that's peanut compared to guesstimates total PreSales from the 1390 resi untis at around $1.073B

CES's Junction 9/Nine Resi and Pollux's Pavilion Square both got a much higher proportion of Comm space vs Resi
- they are all using POC method.
So I think its just typos in the KSH report.
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#94
(13-11-2015, 05:54 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote:
(13-11-2015, 04:56 AM)kyle Wrote: I thought initially high park residence is progressive recognition. But the table from pg 15 in this qrt result showed revenue recognition method is on project completion.  


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ya, you are right Kyle. Didn't spot there. A tad odd, but maybe they want to postpone profit there till 2018 as 2016/7 will alredy see steady contribution from its other projects. They have a right to do it I think cos it has a commercial portion in the project.

I think likely just typo error in the KSH report...  Excels... someone duplicate "the preceeding row" and make changes.

CES report did not specifiy, while Heeton said "to have positive impact... beyond FY2015"

The 9 comm shops combined SLA is so small - only 3206 sqft SLA - and sold for only $7.804m @ave $2434 psfSLA
that's peanut compared to guesstimates total PreSales from the 1390 resi untis at around $1.073B

CES's Junction 9/Nine Resi and Pollux's Pavilion Square both got a much higher proportion of Comm space vs Resi
- they are all using POC method.
So I think its just typos in the KSH report.
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#95
KSH Holdings – Get Paid While
Waiting.
(KSH SP/BUY/S$0.69/Target: S$0.55)
KSH Holdings, a construction firm with
>35 years of experience, is one of the
best local construction firms in terms of
margins and balance sheet. KSH offers
earnings visibility for the next two years
with orders recovering, development
profits locked in and overseas projects
in the pipeline. FY16 net cash of
S$53.4m positions KSH well for an
upturn in the construction/property
market with attractive dividend yield for
investors. Initiate coverage with BUY
and a 0.93x P/B-based target price of
S$0.69.

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_...8d916ce365
Reply
#95
KSH Holdings – Get Paid While
Waiting.
(KSH SP/BUY/S$0.69/Target: S$0.55)
KSH Holdings, a construction firm with
>35 years of experience, is one of the
best local construction firms in terms of
margins and balance sheet. KSH offers
earnings visibility for the next two years
with orders recovering, development
profits locked in and overseas projects
in the pipeline. FY16 net cash of
S$53.4m positions KSH well for an
upturn in the construction/property
market with attractive dividend yield for
investors. Initiate coverage with BUY
and a 0.93x P/B-based target price of
S$0.69.

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_...8d916ce365
Reply
#96
KSH's 49%-owned associated company acquired freehold land at 20 Lorong 35, Geylang.

KSH Holdings Limited  wishes to announce that Development 35 Pte. Ltd. ("Development 35"), a 49%-owned associated company held by the Group, has completed the acquisition of the property situated on freehold land at 20 Lorong 35, Geylang Singapore (the “Land”) on 11 July 2016. The Land has an area of approximately 1,115 square metres.

The purchase consideration for the acquisition is S$20,000,000, which was negotiated on a willing-buyer-willing-seller basis and the Vendor is an independent and unrelated third party.

Development 35 intends to develop a block of 8-storey residential flats with roof terrace and swimming pool on the Land, subject to obtaining all the necessary approvals from the relevant authorities.
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
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#96
KSH's 49%-owned associated company acquired freehold land at 20 Lorong 35, Geylang.

KSH Holdings Limited  wishes to announce that Development 35 Pte. Ltd. ("Development 35"), a 49%-owned associated company held by the Group, has completed the acquisition of the property situated on freehold land at 20 Lorong 35, Geylang Singapore (the “Land”) on 11 July 2016. The Land has an area of approximately 1,115 square metres.

The purchase consideration for the acquisition is S$20,000,000, which was negotiated on a willing-buyer-willing-seller basis and the Vendor is an independent and unrelated third party.

Development 35 intends to develop a block of 8-storey residential flats with roof terrace and swimming pool on the Land, subject to obtaining all the necessary approvals from the relevant authorities.
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
Reply
#97
what does this 2 article means ah?

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20An...eID=445600

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20Ho...eID=446737

The price shoot up 30% after this 2 announcement.
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#97
what does this 2 article means ah?

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20An...eID=445600

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20Ho...eID=446737

The price shoot up 30% after this 2 announcement.
Reply
#98
KSH’s surge over the past few days is probably due news about China’s latest Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is located right next to their Sino-Singapore Health City JV in Gaobeidian.
Recap that KSH, Oxley, Lian Beng and Heeton have a huge development there that spans 393,335 sq m and a GFA of 1,234,000 sqm or nearly 13.3 million sq ft.
This is a huge multi-year project that gives visible earnings for a good number of years. Reports that property prices in the new SEZ have more than doubled due to the news and
govt moves to stop excessive speculation in this new area have suggested that buyers could move to invest in property in nearby GBD instead. This augurs well for the JV’s launches,
the first of which should take place this year. If the JV is able to raise prices and sell out the units quickly, estimates of its future revenues and profits will be raised, spurring
revaluation in the 4 counters.

As a quick analysis of how much these companies will benefit, here are some figures based on a report on Edge Daily, just for Phase 1 of the project alone.
Profit:


KSH $159m, boosting NAV by 35ct per share

Heeton $72m, NAV up 16ct


Lian Beng $77m, NAV up 17ct

Oxley $195m, NAV up 7ct


Comparing these earnings with their respective market cap as of yesterday:

KSH mkt cap: $344m      profit: $159m.  Profit as a % of mkt cap: 46%

Heeton mkt cap: $136   Profit: $72m Profit as % of mkt cap: 53%


Lian Beng  $307 Profit: $77m. Profit as % of mkt cap: 25%


Oxley  $1.775b Profit: $195m. Profit as %of mkt cap: 11%



From the above, it seems that KSH and Heeton will benefit the most from the GBD JV. KSH’s surge has far outpaced the other counters, but Heeton's smaller rise seems to point to it flying under the radar for now.


As KSH is one of my core stocks, I had noticed that its share price looks purposely suppressed at the 53-55ct level for a long time. Perhaps it's this artificial suppression that led to the price surge as the bear’s balloon gets burst.

Heeton's relative smaller price rise is probably due to investors' not so favourable perception of mgt and major shareholders' past records, but the stock has a very profitable JV with CES and KSH in High Park Residences that is mainly not accounted for yet, plus its big exposure (relative to its mkt cap) in the above GBD project. In additon, its NAV is currently above $1, giving the stock a deep discount to its NAV and a even deeper discount of over 70% to its RNAV.
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#98
KSH’s surge over the past few days is probably due news about China’s latest Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is located right next to their Sino-Singapore Health City JV in Gaobeidian.
Recap that KSH, Oxley, Lian Beng and Heeton have a huge development there that spans 393,335 sq m and a GFA of 1,234,000 sqm or nearly 13.3 million sq ft.
This is a huge multi-year project that gives visible earnings for a good number of years. Reports that property prices in the new SEZ have more than doubled due to the news and
govt moves to stop excessive speculation in this new area have suggested that buyers could move to invest in property in nearby GBD instead. This augurs well for the JV’s launches,
the first of which should take place this year. If the JV is able to raise prices and sell out the units quickly, estimates of its future revenues and profits will be raised, spurring
revaluation in the 4 counters.

As a quick analysis of how much these companies will benefit, here are some figures based on a report on Edge Daily, just for Phase 1 of the project alone.
Profit:


KSH $159m, boosting NAV by 35ct per share

Heeton $72m, NAV up 16ct


Lian Beng $77m, NAV up 17ct

Oxley $195m, NAV up 7ct


Comparing these earnings with their respective market cap as of yesterday:

KSH mkt cap: $344m      profit: $159m.  Profit as a % of mkt cap: 46%

Heeton mkt cap: $136   Profit: $72m Profit as % of mkt cap: 53%


Lian Beng  $307 Profit: $77m. Profit as % of mkt cap: 25%


Oxley  $1.775b Profit: $195m. Profit as %of mkt cap: 11%



From the above, it seems that KSH and Heeton will benefit the most from the GBD JV. KSH’s surge has far outpaced the other counters, but Heeton's smaller rise seems to point to it flying under the radar for now.


As KSH is one of my core stocks, I had noticed that its share price looks purposely suppressed at the 53-55ct level for a long time. Perhaps it's this artificial suppression that led to the price surge as the bear’s balloon gets burst.

Heeton's relative smaller price rise is probably due to investors' not so favourable perception of mgt and major shareholders' past records, but the stock has a very profitable JV with CES and KSH in High Park Residences that is mainly not accounted for yet, plus its big exposure (relative to its mkt cap) in the above GBD project. In additon, its NAV is currently above $1, giving the stock a deep discount to its NAV and a even deeper discount of over 70% to its RNAV.
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#99
(06-04-2017, 10:34 PM)Terry Wrote: what does this 2 article means ah?

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20An...eID=445600

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20Ho...eID=446737

The price shoot up 30% after this 2 announcement.

The above is about the Lian Beng-KSH consortium having just sold another 55,700 sf of office space at Prudential Tower, and has sold almost all of its investment in this building thus far. Positive for KSH but the main reason for the recent surge.
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#99
(06-04-2017, 10:34 PM)Terry Wrote: what does this 2 article means ah?

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20An...eID=445600

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20Ho...eID=446737

The price shoot up 30% after this 2 announcement.

The above is about the Lian Beng-KSH consortium having just sold another 55,700 sf of office space at Prudential Tower, and has sold almost all of its investment in this building thus far. Positive for KSH but the main reason for the recent surge.
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I think there may some some error in Edge figures on the respective NAV boost from Phase 1 of GBD project.

The right fgiures are:

Lian Beng's 10% stake should yield it only $71m, which translates to 14.2cts per share.
Heeton's 7.5% stake yields it $53.25m, translating to 16.4ct per share.

Best exposure: Ksh (35ct per share)
Next best exposure: Heeton (16.4ct)
Next: Lian Beng (14.2ct)
Last: Oxley (7ct)
Reply
I think there may some some error in Edge figures on the respective NAV boost from Phase 1 of GBD project.

The right fgiures are:

Lian Beng's 10% stake should yield it only $71m, which translates to 14.2cts per share.
Heeton's 7.5% stake yields it $53.25m, translating to 16.4ct per share.

Best exposure: Ksh (35ct per share)
Next best exposure: Heeton (16.4ct)
Next: Lian Beng (14.2ct)
Last: Oxley (7ct)
Reply


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