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Happy New Year 2019...?
31-12-2018, 08:12 PM.
Post: #1
Happy New Year 2019...?
Thank forummers for the postings and sharing.
Thank Moderators for the moderations.
Wishing you all the best.

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Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
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31-12-2018, 08:14 PM.
Post: #2
Happy New Year 2019
Happy new year to all VBs

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31-12-2018, 08:29 PM.
Post: #3
RE: Happy New Year 2019
Thanks Cyclone for hosting and also fellow moderator CY09 for sharing the workload. And also to all VBs for taking time to share their knowledge and wisdom - another year has passed and hope we have become wiser and kinder, bit by bit, day by day.

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01-01-2019, 01:48 PM.
Post: #4
Happy New Year 2019...?
I didn't check, but this might be the first year that VB did not have a 2019 happy new year/investment outlook thread.

While 2018 was a 'bad' year, I hope that none of the regulars here were too affected by whatever that has happened. 

For the sake of entertainment, I shall list my most memorable stocks in chronological order. Memorable because of the money lost, of course.

1. STX Pan Ocean. Isn't a 'down-cycle' the best time to invest in a cyclical business? 
2. Noble. Its an STI constituent stock, surely it won't go bust, right? 
3. China Fishery. Sure, it has lots of debts. But it just raised cash through a rights issue. And it is trading at such a loooow p/b Must be a bargain, right? 
4. MTQ. Again, clearly did not learn my lesson in how long a down cycle can last. 

There are many lessons to be learnt from each mistake, but even then, I didn't recognise some of them until much later. Losing money provides a strong motivation for reflection. I lost about $10k on each of these, which adds up to about a year's salary for a fresh graduate. Certainly, the pain from loss will last for a long time. But hopefully, the lessons learnt will be worth the $40k spent.

For one, I have become much more acute of the danger of debts, and reliance on poor/baseless investment hypotheses. I have also retreated from businesses that are more cyclical in nature. Looking back, I laugh at how I made my decisions. If only making money was that simple. 

But nothing ever is.

Amidst the gloomy sentiments, I am actually quite excited/optimistic about the Singapore market in the new year. I no longer think valuations are high -- which I have for most of 2016 and 2017 -- and in fact, there are many good propositions trading at/near bargain prices. Maybe not 2008/09 kind of valuations, but still cheap from various angles. I was buying a lot more stocks in 2018. If markets continue to fall, that will be an opportunity for buying. If markets rise, then that will be an opportunity for selling. For once, I'm not sure which to hope for.

Happy New Year to one and all in valuebuddies. 

And may the odds, be ever in your favour!  Big Grin

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01-01-2019, 02:38 PM.
Post: #5
RE: Happy New Year 2019...?
Happy New Year 2019.

Wishing all Valuebuddies good health and wealth.

IMO, 2019 may be my shopping time for some of my shortlisted stock. Some stock with good dividend. Get pay while waiting for upside.

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01-01-2019, 03:10 PM.
Post: #6
RE: Happy New Year 2019...?
(01-01-2019, 01:48 PM)karlmarx Wrote: I didn't check, but this might be the first year that VB did not have a 2019 happy new year/investment outlook thread.

There is actually one started by cyclone but it was nested right at the bottom under the "Others" portion. I will probably merge that thread into this one for more visibility.

That said, there is indeed less "commentary" on 2018 results or 2019 predictions kind of thread (corydorus's thread on his dividend result is an exception) at the end of the year in 2018. Maybe it is the usual indices all falling and/or the volatility that renders most to be scared of making predictions?

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01-01-2019, 03:52 PM.
Post: #7
RE: Happy New Year 2019...?
Happy New Year everyone. May 2019 be a huatty year.

VB has definitely become quieter these days...

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01-01-2019, 04:26 PM.
Post: #8
RE: Happy New Year 2019...?
Happy new year, VBs.

Hits and Misses for me. As i invest more, i guess i can to learn more about what investing style suits me, my temperament, etc.

Hope learn more from VBs here. Smile
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Winston Churchill:-
“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.”
"The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see."

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01-01-2019, 05:26 PM.
Post: #9
RE: Happy New Year 2019...?
Happy New Year ! Wish a prosperous 2019 and many good years ahead to all VBs .

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01-01-2019, 08:42 PM.
Post: #10
RE: Happy New Year 2019...?
Have a profitable 2019 to all buddies! Good riddance to 2018 and for buddies nursing losses in some counters (me too haha), here some morale booster if you are confident in your companies and CEOs.

An interesting BBC interview with CM during the crisis of 2009 (although we are nowhere near that and nobody knows whether we will reach that state again anytime soon).

Q: How worried are you by the declines of the share price of Berkshire Hathway?

CM: Zero. This is the third time Warren and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it’s in the nature of long term shareholding of the normal vicissitudes, of worldly outcomes, of markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stocks go down by say 50%. In fact you can argue that if you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.

Big Grin Big Grin
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(Not a recommendation to buy or sell, just stating facts)

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