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Can you call the stock market? Equity analyst says he can
18-02-2016, 02:57 PM.
Post: #1
Can you call the stock market? Equity analyst says he can
Thought this is interesting.
If have access to the computer, can bet a small amount of money each month with 68% chance of winning.
Over the long time, returns should be positive, assuming other people don't have access to the same machine.

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Can you call the stock market? Equity analyst says he can
BY TOSHIRO HASEGAWA AND TOM REDMOND
BLOOMBERG

On the 10th day of every month, Junsuke Senoguchi has just one thing on his mind: the closing level of the Nikkei average.

That is because Senoguchi, an unassuming man in his late 40s, has built a machine that has been predicting the direction of Japanese shares, and once a month he gets a progress report on its success. The model makes a simple call — whether the equity index will be higher or lower after 30 days — and over almost four years it has been right 68 percent of the time.

“I’m so happy” when it works, said Senoguchi, a senior equity strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “It’s because I feel I can predict the future.”

Algorithms have invaded global share markets, used by everyone from high-frequency traders closing bets in fractions of a second, to specialist asset managers whose strategies are determined by complex quantitative analysis. Medallion, the fund created by James Simons at quant-trading pioneer Renaissance Technologies, averaged a 71.8 percent annual return, before fees, from 1994 through mid-2014. There is also the growing field known as robo-advice, which uses algorithms to suggest investments based on clients’ goals and risk tolerances.
[...]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/02...sVp4PmGOM_

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18-02-2016, 03:56 PM.
Post: #2
RE: Can you call the stock market? Equity analyst says he can
Then why is he still working for MUFJ MS Secs?
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"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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18-02-2016, 04:01 PM.
Post: #3
RE: Can you call the stock market? Equity analyst says he can
(18-02-2016, 03:56 PM)opmi Wrote: Then why is he still working for MUFJ MS Secs?

Japanese workers have that sense of pride and loyalty working for the company..till they retire Smile

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18-02-2016, 07:37 PM.
Post: #4
RE: Can you call the stock market? Equity analyst says he can
I think we need to differentiate between 68% return versus 68% chances of winning. By tikam tikam, sometime 68% chance of winning maybe easily achievable when you have only 2 choices and trend is defined.

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