Samudera Shipping

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"Although it may sound strange, my prediction for Omicron's impact on SMDR performance is positive," said PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk President Director Bani Maulana Mulia to, Monday (6/12).

He mentioned that Omicron might hinder the normalization of other circumstances. However, on the other hand, it will keep the freight rate high.

Unfortunately, he has not disclosed his freight rate . "The freight rate varies, of course, depending on the route and destination, but currently all shipping companies are enjoying high freight rates," he said.
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Parent SMDR rallied strongly with >10% gains past 2 days. There is an article today on this in (indonesian) but I don't have subscription to read the details.

Further search I found that there was a positive unrated report on SMDR by a fund manager (Mirae) dated 13 Dec.
Just sharing.
Most probably the company earns about above 25 cents for the year (FY2021) with 4th quarter contributing the highest quarter since freight rates in 4th quarter are much higher than 3rd

That's about a  PE of more than 2 at present price. Maybe less than 2 depending on 4th quarter contribution.

There's a worry if FY2022 will see a collapse in earnings. But with increasing clarify, I think we might  even see an increased in earnings. Firstly if 4th quarter FY2021 freight rates is carried into 1Q FY2022, we might see 10-12 cents earnings for 1Q. That is about 40% of FY2021 estimate earnings of 25 cents. To make the rest of 60% in the next 3 quarters is highly probable if rates do not fall too significantly.

But the main reason I think FY2022 we will see a huge increase in annual rates. I have been pondering why Samudera's earnings did not rise as significantly compared to its competitor RCL. My guess now is that the company is locked into low rates which are due for revision. With freight rates much higher now than the start of the year, the company will most probably see a much higher revised rates.

The main shippers all have annual rates agreement with their main customers so my guess is that Samudera does so especially with the main line operators it is dealing with. I could not find any newer information on the annual rates agreement and this is what I can find. Maybe someone can ask for an update on this during their next AGM.

As a feeder operator, our CCAs (connecting carrier agreements) with main line operators are applied on annual basis, therefore they can help to avoid rate cutting. Internally we have intensified cost efficiency programs

(Significant portion of revenue of which rates to be revised)
Samudera has 2 customers contributing 36% of FY20 revenue

If investment is buying a portion of a business. At present price of 54 cents, the company has already earned the FY2021 25 cents and for FY2022, probably it will be able to matched FY2021 earnings
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Buying new ships, PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) has prepared a capital expenditure (capex) of US$ 250 million this year. In addition, the company is also eyeing a 30 percent revenue growth.

President Director of Samudera Indonesia Bani Mulia Maulana said that in 2022 the company plans to add six new fleets that are still under construction and one tanker which is still in the process. The investment made by the company for the fleet is US$ 10 to US$ 15 million for tanker type vessels and around US$ 40 million for container type vessels. "In the midst of improving container shipping business conditions, the company will open up services and require capacity building," he explained to Investor Daily, Sunday (9/1/2022).

According to Bani, this year's revenue from container shipping has the opportunity to make a better contribution than bulk shipping. This strategy is expected to increase revenues by around 30% above 2021 revenues. “In 2021 our revenues will pass US$ 600 million, thus it is hoped that in 2022 the revenue target can be above US$ 700 million. We continue to expand our services and it is hoped that it will increase revenue significantly," he said.
Might result in lots of logistics business....

Indonesia passes law to relocate capital from Jakarta to Borneo
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PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk ( SMDR ) projects this year's revenue to exceed US$ 700 million.

President Director of PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk Bani Maulana Mulia said that this optimism departed from the achievement of revenue in 2021 exceeding the previous target and the current trend is still increasing.

Samudera Indonesia (SMDR) Targets Revenue Above US$ 700 Million This Year
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Samudera SG is due to announce its full year earnings in 2 weeks time, and it is expected to be better than 1H 2021.

The parent company (Samudera Indonesia) has stated that its full year revenue for year 2021 has exceeded USD600M (vs USD274M in 1H 2021). And based on 1H 2021, Samudera SG contributed 76% of Samudera Indonesia revenue, and with the higher Asean container shipping rates in Q2 2021, it is expected that Samudera SG revenue contribution for 2H 2021 to exceed 76%.

Assuming Samudera Indonesia's (at least) USD600M for FY2021 with (at least) 76% contribution from Samudera SG, I am expecting Samudera SG to record full year revenue of exceeding USD450M (vs USD209M for 1H 2021). During 1H 2021, it made USD38M net profit, with the higher revenue and expectedly higher GPM due to higher revenue, it will be prudent to expect USD90M net profit for FY 2021 (2.4 times PE). Perhaps surprise dividend to follow?
There is a big player selling Samudera. Everytime it hits around 56, the player will come in to block and try to push the share price down. He seems kinda convinced that Samudera is overvalued. He has been doing this a few times and for a few months already.

Looking at the shareholdings, I really doubt he has so many shares to sell for personally I have around 70 lots being borrowed.

My guess for samudera is that its PE is around 2, nta as for 2021 should be above 75 cents and dividend for 2021 should be around 5 to 8 I don't see any overvaluation. Some container shippers are reporting very good January 2022 revenue with Evergreen's Jan 2022 EPS of NT$6 compared to 1st Quarter EPS of NT$7.

As for its parent company Samudera Indonesia, its share price was up by more than 20% in the past month. Bulk of its profit will come from Samudera Shipping.

I keep an open mind that I might be wrong and the seller is right. In investing, sometimes you need conviction in what you are doing.
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An article on it in today Straits Times.
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