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Policies boost housing index
By Cherry Cao | December 6, 2014, Saturday | Print Edition
SHANGHAI’S pre-owned house index turned around in November for the first time in six months as government policies to bolster a sagging property market were just the tonic to lift buyers’ sentiment.
The index, which tracks month-on-month price changes of pre-owned houses across the city, gained 0.18 percent, or 6 points, from October to 2,893, the Shanghai Existing House Index Office said in its latest report.
“Government measures launched over the past month to fight against sluggish property sales boosted the city’s existing home market as more than 20,000 units of properties were traded last month,” Chen Zhen from the index office said yesterday.
Buyers took advantage of a revised criteria for “normal” housing by the local industry watchdog and the latest interest rate cut by China’s central bank — the first of its kind in more than two years.
Of the 130 areas tracked in the city, prices rose in 74, a gain of 58 from October. Prices fell in 43 areas and were flat in the remaining 13 areas.
Real Estate
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
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China property set for demographic hit
PUBLISHED: 15 HOURS 33 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES AGO
Developers are sitting on 5.6 million unsold units, a number that has doubled in the past two years. Photo: Qilai Shen
JAMIL ANDERLINI
China’s building blocks to recovery.
China’s previously overheated property market has been in the doldrums for most of this year but things are likely to worsen, thanks to demographic shifts that are about to reverse a main driver of the decades-long boom.
According to newly published research, the size of China’s main property-buying population – people aged 25 to 49 – will peak next year and then start to decline, just as a huge glut of new apartments hits the market.
This demographic will shrink drastically from 2018, with the number of urban homebuying Chinese falling much faster than contemporaries from the countryside, who are far less likely to have the means to buy expensive apartments, according to Ai Jingwei, an expert on Chinese real estate and author of the research.
The real estate sector has been the most important driver of growth in the world’s second-largest economy for most of the past decade, as house prices soared and construction of apartments mushroomed across the entire country.
Moody’s Analytics estimates the building, sale and outfitting of apartments accounted for 23 per cent of Chinese gross domestic product last year.
The long-term health of the property sector is still seen as crucial to maintaining the high growth rates to which China has become accustomed.
But after years of white-hot growth, Chinese property sales fell 10 per cent in the first 10 months of 2014 from a year earlier, prompting the steepest annual drop in nationwide prices in October since the data series began in 2011.
Still, the fall in volumes and prices has so far been relatively mild and developers across China have continued to expand their inventories, albeit at a slower pace, in the hopes of a recovery next year and beyond.
Most analysts argue this worsening oversupply is the biggest threat to China’s all-important property market.
“Developers are currently sitting on 5.6 million units of unsold property, according to official statistics, a figure that has almost doubled in the space of two years,” says Mark Williams, economist at Capital Economics. “In reality the overhang is probably even larger.”
Mr Ai calculates that China probably now has more than seven years worth of unsold real estate inventory. But he argues that a shrinking pool of potential homebuyers is an even more worrying long-term challenge.
“From 2015 China’s house-buying demographic will start to shrink and the property market will undergo a structural shift in demand,” Mr Ai told the Financial Times. “We are actually likely to see a serious structural shortfall in purchasing power.”
He calculates the number of people in China in the 25 to 49 age group will peak next year at about 568 million, before dropping to 543 million in 2020 and falling below 500 million by 2025, compared with 547 million in 2010.
China’s official working-age population (people aged 15-59) peaked in 2012 and has shrunk by several million in each of the past two years, according to government statistics.
This demographic shift has been exacerbated by the one-child policy introduced in the late 1970s and early 1980s to control the country’s population.
The shift has already been manifested in tighter labour markets and higher wages in many sectors.
One of the more alarming revelations from Mr Ai’s research is the apparent correlation between a declining working-age population and the bursting of real estate bubbles in other countries in the past.
The most obvious and disturbing example from China’s perspective is that of Japan, which saw its working-age population peak in 1992, just one year after an enormous real estate bubble began to deflate.
The Australian Financial Review
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New home sales remain robust in Shanghai
By Cherry Cao | December 8, 2014, Monday | Online Edition
THE first week of December continued to register strong sentiment among both home buyers and real estate developers despite a retreat in sales volume, latest market data suggest.
The purchases of new residential properties, excluding government-funded affordable housing, fell 18.7 percent from the previous seven-day period to 260,100 square meters, remaining above the 200,000-square-meter threshold for the fourth consecutive week, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released today.
"Despite the withdrawal, the weekly volume was still quite good for this time of the year," said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher. "Ever-climbing supply of new homes seemed to be the major reason behind the current sales boom."
Around the city last week, new housing properties totaling 524,100 square meters were released to the local market, a week-on-week surge of 21.7 percent and also the highest weekly volume recorded in 219 weeks, or more than four years, according to Deovolente data.
The city's inventory of new homes, as a result, kept rising after supply outnumbered sales for 4 consecutive weeks.
As of today, new homes available for sale remained above 13 million square meters across the city, according to www.fangdi.com, the city's official real estate information website. That compared with 4.96 million square meters of new houses sold in Shanghai during the six months ended November 30.
A series of measures introduced the past two months by the central and local governments have successfully boosted morale in the market which is, however, still plagued by a high inventory.
"It is possible for December to become the best performing month of this year if the current pace of sales can be maintained," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst with Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co. "Real estate developers are advised not to raise their prices as far as inventory still remained high."
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http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/re...aily.shtml
Decline in home prices moderates
By Ding Yining | December 19, 2014, Friday | Print Edition
SIGNS of a rebound were seen in China’s home prices in November as monthly declines narrowed after the government eased buying curbs and cut interest rates, official data showed yesterday.
New home prices dropped last month in 67 cities out of the 70 major cities tracked by the government, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
In Shanghai, new home prices fell 0.3 percent month on month, narrowing from the 0.7 percent drop in October.
“The shift of mortgage policies by local governments as well as a central bank cut in interest rates have brought a positive effect to new home sales across the country,” said Liu Jianwei, the bureau’s senior statistician.
Local governments have eased house purchase restrictions to prevent a sharp slowdown in the sector to avoid jeopardizing the broader economy.
Meanwhile, the central bank last month lowered interest rates to cut financing costs.
These moves have fueled home sales, which rose 11.6 percent in November from a month ago to 809.6 billion yuan (US$130 billion), the highest level since the start of this year, according to the bureau.
New home prices in Hefei, Nanjing and Shenzhen were flat.
A total of 58 cities among the 70 major cities saw prices of pre-owned homes drop last month, compared with 64 in October.
Pre-owned home prices in four first-tier cities all rose monthly in November.
On an annual basis, new home prices fell in 68 of the 70 cities, down from 69 in October.
“House prices will continue to drop going into next year but the pace of decline will moderate, and we expect the government to again ease housing policies, with likely options to include lower mortgage rates, tax incentives and simpler down-payment requirement for a second mortgage,” said Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JPMorgan China.
Real EstateDing Yining
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Pudong land sold at highest price
By Wang Yanlin | December 25, 2014, Thursday | Print Edition
A land parcel in the Pudong New Area was sold for 1.61 billion yuan (US$259 million) yesterday, the highest price this year by floor price, the local land management authority said.
A consortium led by Gree Group acquired the plot, which is designated for housing, in Qiantan. The parcel’s average gross floor area price was 65,800 yuan per square meter, a surge of 127 percent from its starting price and a record so far this year.
It was another record-breaking sale in one month. In November, a 126,740-square-meter land parcel in Shanghai’s Huangpu District was sold for 24.85 billion yuan, a record by total price. It was also the second-most expensive plot by total price ever sold on the Chinese mainland.
Such transactions occurred after signs of a slight rebound were seen in China’s home prices. Last month, new home prices in Shanghai fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier, narrowing from the 0.7 percent drop in October.
Nationwide, prices of pre-owned homes in 58 of the 70 major cities fell last month, down from 64 in October. Home sales rose 11.6 percent in November to 809.6 billion yuan, the highest since the start of this year.
The authority eased house buying curbs in late September to prevent a sharp slowdown in the sector. The central bank also cut interest rates to trim financing costs to boost the broader economy, which partly helped the property market.
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Kaisa is a big developer in Shenzhen. Recently kenna suspended to sell its projects.
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listcone...228031.pdf
KAISA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
佳兆業集團控股有限公司 *
(Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability)
(Stock Code: 1638)
ANNOUNCEMENT
(1) RESIGNATION OF EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
AND VICE CHAIRMAN
(2) RESIGNATION OF CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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Bank pulled loans. Will trigger the rest of the banks to follow.
Up lorry liao.
Since SOE Sino Life took a big stake in Kaisa last month, likely will inject capital to control
Kaisa. 'Backdoor confiscation'
KAISA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
佳兆業集團控股有限公司 *
(Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability)
(Stock Code: 1638)
HOLDING ANNOUNCEMENT
This announcement is made by Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (the “Company”, together
with its subsidiaries, the “Group”) pursuant to Rule 13.09(2) and Rule 13.19 of the Rules
Governing the Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the “Stock
Exchange”) and the Inside Information Provisions of Part XIVA of the Securities and Futures
Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong).
Reference is made to the announcement of the Company dated 10 December 2014 in
relation to, among others, the resignation of Mr. Kwok Ying Shing as the chairman of the
board of directors of the Company (the “Board”) with effect from 31 December 2014 (the
“Resignation”) and the announcement of the Company dated 29 December 2014 in relation
to the halt in trading of the shares of the Company on the Stock Exchange with effect from
9:00 a.m. on 29 December 2014 pending the release by the Company of an announcement
containing inside information in relation to the Company.
The Board would like to provide an update on the recent development of the Group. The
Company has received a notice from The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation
Limited (“HSBC”) being the lender of a facility agreement entered into between, among
others, the Company as the borrower and HSBC on 2 August 2013 in respect of a term loan
facility of HK$400,000,000 (the “HSBC Facility Agreement”) that the Resignation has
triggered the mandatory prepayment provision under the HSBC Facility Agreement and the
Company shall immediately repay all the loans together with the accrued interest thereon
under the HSBC Facility Agreement (the “Outstanding HSBC Facility”) on 31 December
2014, being the effective date of the Resignation. As at the date of this announcement, the
Company has failed to repay the Outstanding HSBC Facility to HSBC.
The Company is currently assessing the impact of the above default on other loan facilities of
and debt and equity securities issued by the Group which may trigger cross-default under such
loan facilities and/or debt and/or equity securities, which may in turn have material adverse
impact on the financial position of the Group. The Company will publish an announcement to
provide an update of the above as soon as practicable. In the meantime, trading in the shares
of the Company will remain suspended pending the publication of any further announcement.
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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17-01-2015, 08:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 17-01-2015, 08:53 PM by BlueKelah.)
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Shenzhen Home Prices Rebound on Rate Cut
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's home prices may be heading for its first annualized increase in twelve months, signaling what could be the bottom of the market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/shenzhen-...ndF~g.html
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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