US Economic News

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Watershed CPI yesterday and 2 rate cuts now becoming consensus. PCE number is likely to be even softer. However I think if Fed pre empt with rate cut end this month the rally still has legs but if rate cut in Sept might be too late and become classical rate cut when economy slows significantly and will be short term weak market until more rate cuts unfold.

I'm hopeful but not optimistic that Powell will have enough political courage to cut end this month

Jun CPI 2.97%
Jun Core CPI 3.27%

As of 11 Jul Cleveland Fed expecting
Jul CPI 3.01%
Jul Core CPI 3.33%

Jun PCE 2.40%
Jun Core PCE 2.39%
Jul PCE 2.47%
Jun Core PCE 2.47%

(13-06-2024, 11:28 AM)specuvestor Wrote: 2024 Fed target cuts reduced to 1 due mainly to 4 hawkish members looking at no cuts this year while both the chair and vice chair are more moderate

Market however looking at 2 cuts this year versus a hike back in April. Mood swing continues but US equity markets amazingly buoyant even as core PCE inflation target inexplicably raised to 2.8% from 2.6%

May CPI 3.27%
May Core CPI 3.42%

As of 12 Jun Cleveland Fed expecting
Jun CPI 3.15%
Jun Core CPI 3.52%

May PCE 2.62%
May Core PCE 2.56%
Jun PCE 2.55%
Jun Core PCE 2.60%
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Biden is gone case and Powell probably may not last till 2026 when his term officially ends because Trump would want him out....

So Powell now is his own master...

What will he do.....he will not want to be blamed for creating a bubble...and we are in a bubble...

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