16-08-2024, 09:45 PM
(16-08-2024, 09:56 AM)weijian Wrote: hi CY09,
APTT's share price in 2020 = 0.13cents
APTT's share price in 2024 = 0.08cents (loss of 5cents or ~40%)
APTT's total dividends paid in the last 5 years = 0.05cents
APTT's TSR over the last 5 years = (0.08-0.13)+0.05 = 0
If we assume a WACC of 2% per annum, it means we would have lost 10% (or we can think it as opportunity costs)
On hindsight, Mr Market has been remarkably correct over the last 5 years. In the absence of an external crisis and very clear numbers for all to see (ie. the low payout ratio), it is puzzling that Mr Market continues to give it a 12-13% yield.
What are things that Mr Market may have seen but remains unseen by OPMIs like us?
It is the refinancing risk Mr market is worried about where debt facility ends 2025.
I don't view this as a too high of a risk as compared to what the market perceives, let's see the answer 1 year from now. Till then APTT pricing will remain depressed