China Merchants Holdings Pacific

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(28-09-2014, 04:55 AM)D.L Wrote: Hi GG,

Just wondering, where do you get Bloomberg terminal for the data? I wanted to try my hands on that. Unfortunately, i can't seems to be able to find any Bloomberg terminal that can allow me to try for free. I do use S&P Capital IQ to do a check like major shareholders but not for financial statements.

Hope you can share with me? Tongue

There are 2 Bloomberg terminals available for public at central library level 7. It should be free, but I haven't tried so far.
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Thanks all for so much information sharing, this seems like quite a good counter to hold for dividends and some growth. May i know whats the current dividend yield like?
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^^ Its about 7.3~7.4% now at around last week's prices.
But note that there is dilution due to convertible bonds getting converted. Question is whether profit can increase enough to offset the dilution.
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thanks a lot for the information
Yeah the big CB dilution can be quite a problem
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http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Cancella...eID=316322

The board of directors (the “Board”) of China Merchants Holdings (Pacific) Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that HK$8,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of HK$1,163,000,000 1.25 per cent. convertible bonds due 2017 (credit enhanced until 2015) (the “Convertible Bonds”) have been converted and cancelled pursuant to the exercise of conversion rights by the holder thereof (the “Conversion”). Accordingly, following such conversion and cancellation, the aggregate principal amount of the Convertible Bonds remaining outstanding as of 29 September 2014 is HK$911,000,000.
Arising from such conversion, 1,528,819 new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company (“Shares”) have been issued at the conversion price of S$0.826 and the total number of issued and paid-up Shares of the Company has increased to 1,026,525,732.

Based on outstanding HK$911m worth of CBs, the potential shares to be converted at $0.826 is 174.094m.
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http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Cancella...eID=316549

The board of directors (the “Board”) of China Merchants Holdings (Pacific) Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that HK$31,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of HK$1,163,000,000 1.25 per cent. convertible bonds due 2017 (credit enhanced until 2015) (the “Convertible Bonds”) have been converted and cancelled pursuant to the exercise of conversion rights by the holder thereof (the “Conversion”). Accordingly, following such conversion and cancellation, the aggregate principal amount of the Convertible Bonds remaining outstanding as of 30 September 2014 is HK$880,000,000.
Arising from such conversion, 5,924,178 new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company (“Shares”) have been issued at the conversion price of S$0.826 and the total number of issued and paid-up Shares of the Company has increased to 1,032,449,910.
BY ORDER OF THE BOARD
Lim Lay Hoon
Company Secretary
Singapore, 30 September 2014


Based on outstanding HK$880m worth of CBs, the potential shares to be converted at $0.826 is 168.17m.
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OK here are some more interesting titbits post-EGM discussion with the CEO. Sorry for the belated posting as I was accumulating and do not want to talk up the price for selfish reasons. I am about done now unless the price drops significantly. I still won't be able to catch up with Mr GG(oh), salute for being top20 shareholder.

1. the ex-jiurui owners was borrowing money at the rate of 10-11%. This is at the owner level and not the Jiurui company level. Now you know how much of a distress sale it was to CMHP. Kudos to CMHP for having the discipline and patience to squeeze them by sabotaging the deal 1st time round. At the jiurui company level, earlier posting already mentioned the restructuring of the company loans to save on interest cost.

2. to another forumer who asked why there is long sell queue. If you are in financial distress, you would unload all the shares from CMHP upon getting it to the point that you would even short it. Ex-jiurui owners shares is subject to 1/3 lock up for 6mths and another 1/3 for 12 mths. My belief is that come AR season you won't find them as top 20 shareholder. Now I know who has been borrowing my shares, it is them and not the CBs people.

3. mr jang hinted yes they are working on some deals but he quickly qualified that even after negotiating for about 8 mths(a typical deal negotiating) there is no guarantee of success. With their skills in negotiating, yes patience and discipline is good. last thing you want is they get a lemon.

4. Mr jang also said that there will be more distress deals coming. Since their parent is in the banking biz I would expect them to know where the distress deals are. so be patient and expect more deals.

There are 2 kinds of people you should buy your stocks from:

1. those who panic but sometimes you also got chicken out too
2. those in distress......this is why the price of CMHP hasn't move despite the good deal done on jiurui and high div. this is good for us to accumulate more.

core holding
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(03-10-2014, 02:36 PM)Jacmar Wrote: OK here are some more interesting titbits post-EGM discussion with the CEO. Sorry for the belated posting as I was accumulating and do not want to talk up the price for selfish reasons. I am about done now unless the price drops significantly. I still won't be able to catch up with Mr GG(oh), salute for being top20 shareholder.

1. the ex-jiurui owners was borrowing money at the rate of 10-11%. This is at the owner level and not the Jiurui company level. Now you know how much of a distress sale it was to CMHP. Kudos to CMHP for having the discipline and patience to squeeze them by sabotaging the deal 1st time round. At the jiurui company level, earlier posting already mentioned the restructuring of the company loans to save on interest cost.

2. to another forumer who asked why there is long sell queue. If you are in financial distress, you would unload all the shares from CMHP upon getting it to the point that you would even short it. Ex-jiurui owners shares is subject to 1/3 lock up for 6mths and another 1/3 for 12 mths. My belief is that come AR season you won't find them as top 20 shareholder. Now I know who has been borrowing my shares, it is them and not the CBs people.

3. mr jang hinted yes they are working on some deals but he quickly qualified that even after negotiating for about 8 mths(a typical deal negotiating) there is no guarantee of success. With their skills in negotiating, yes patience and discipline is good. last thing you want is they get a lemon.

4. Mr jang also said that there will be more distress deals coming. Since their parent is in the banking biz I would expect them to know where the distress deals are. so be patient and expect more deals.

There are 2 kinds of people you should buy your stocks from:

1. those who panic but sometimes you also got chicken out too
2. those in distress......this is why the price of CMHP hasn't move despite the good deal done on jiurui and high div. this is good for us to accumulate more.

core holding

What do u think is the fair value?
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Hi Jacmar,

Thanks for your valuable input.

China has recently undergone a new leadership change. Just as in all change in dynasty in the Middle Kingdom history, new leadership are always more comfortable with their own kind.

On that assumption, I m inclined to think that CMG is the chosen SOE to spearhead consolidation domestically and to continue to the fly the flag overseas.

CMG has its roots dated all the way back to the Cheng Ho days and hence the logic for it to carry the Chinese flag for overseas infrastructure deals. They have been diligently carrying out their mission steadily over the years.

As to why Huajian chose CMP as the flagship to consolidate toll roads particularly those distress, I think CMP is based outside HK where the bigger ones in which they have small stakes are too big to be of any meaningful contributions to these big established toll players. Anyway, since CMP has risen above NAV, its $ printing capability has been kindled and like REITs are able to undertake accretive purchases.

Toll roads are usually awarded to connected and financially strong people. However, most of such businessmen in China typically have property exposures in line with the directions of the previous leadership.

Since public discontent over hugely inflated housing prices can no longer be ignored in Communist China, the weaker previously connected businessmen are likely to have fallen out of favour and hence the need to be bailed out. Only financially strong and connected parties are privy to such deals - certainly not any financially able and capable foreign investment banks let alone foreign sovereign wealth fund (SWF). This status should help to mitigate the concerns over the S Chip Gate being repeated at CMP in the medium term.

To me CMP is a very interesting rich yielding infrastructure with decent growth both organically and via acquisitions.

CMP share price has been held backed by whatever force and I reiterate that I m more focus on the buyers intention than the sellers.

Fair value - buy for 7.5% yield with 5% capital growth in hope for 5% dividend yield with 7.5% capital growth since market is aways known for being stupid when it comes to valuation. What is interesting here is if CMP keeps on growing its dividend steadily, it will not take a lot of growth when yield compression kicks in.

Once the CB overhang is cleared, ie all being converted, the other focus will then be the balance between new shares placement and debt undertaken for future purchases.

In Communist Merchant Party
We Trust
Vested
Core Holdings
GG

(03-10-2014, 02:36 PM)Jacmar Wrote: OK here are some more interesting titbits post-EGM discussion with the CEO. Sorry for the belated posting as I was accumulating and do not want to talk up the price for selfish reasons. I am about done now unless the price drops significantly. I still won't be able to catch up with Mr GG(oh), salute for being top20 shareholder.

1. the ex-jiurui owners was borrowing money at the rate of 10-11%. This is at the owner level and not the Jiurui company level. Now you know how much of a distress sale it was to CMHP. Kudos to CMHP for having the discipline and patience to squeeze them by sabotaging the deal 1st time round. At the jiurui company level, earlier posting already mentioned the restructuring of the company loans to save on interest cost.

2. to another forumer who asked why there is long sell queue. If you are in financial distress, you would unload all the shares from CMHP upon getting it to the point that you would even short it. Ex-jiurui owners shares is subject to 1/3 lock up for 6mths and another 1/3 for 12 mths. My belief is that come AR season you won't find them as top 20 shareholder. Now I know who has been borrowing my shares, it is them and not the CBs people.

3. mr jang hinted yes they are working on some deals but he quickly qualified that even after negotiating for about 8 mths(a typical deal negotiating) there is no guarantee of success. With their skills in negotiating, yes patience and discipline is good. last thing you want is they get a lemon.

4. Mr jang also said that there will be more distress deals coming. Since their parent is in the banking biz I would expect them to know where the distress deals are. so be patient and expect more deals.

There are 2 kinds of people you should buy your stocks from:

1. those who panic but sometimes you also got chicken out too
2. those in distress......this is why the price of CMHP hasn't move despite the good deal done on jiurui and high div. this is good for us to accumulate more.

core holding
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Hi jacmar, just curious If Liu qiang was selling why wasn't there any announcement of change of % of ssh? Many thanks for the EGM info.
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