The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

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#71
(04-10-2011, 09:54 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: There are quite a number of experienced forumers here who have weathered the GFC and they probably can share their experiences here. Off-hand I can think of probably dydx and d.o.g. as well as a few others, so hopefully they can come out to share their stories and experiences.

For myself, it's more of a "lucky break" that I managed to survive as I entered the crisis back then owning companies with heavy leverage (e.g. Ezra, Swiber, China Fishery) and was simply lucky to escape unscathed. Assuming that this turns out to be another big crisis, I hope to avoid the same mistakes again.

hi musicwhiz, thanks for sharing your experience. I went into GFC2008 with half of my portfolio of china stocks that bombed. my lucky break came in Jan2009 when i got a lump sum payout as i was laid off and i put all of them into stocks. I could still vividly remember that STI bottomed on 9th march, and my last buy was on 5th march. At that point of time, my fingers were trembling as i keyed in my orders in poems... Big Grin


(04-10-2011, 12:12 PM)WolfT Wrote: The lower it(stocks) drop, the more exciting it gets for me...ok,maybe only me!
I really hope all the blue chips crash..eg,capitaland $1 ,DBS $3 etc, rotary 10ct, wing tai 20ct. Hoot!

aiyah..not only u lah. It gets Warren Buffet excited as well, and all those who are going to be net buyers of equities in the next 5-10years..
#72
I think the Market is still in downtrend , ..... whoever predict the 2012 Scenario , seems to be on track.

Heard rumour that 2012 will be the year of Big Big Big Earthquake in California , wonder that will coincide with Market down down down.
#73
(04-10-2011, 09:43 PM)weijian Wrote:
(04-10-2011, 09:54 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: There are quite a number of experienced forumers here who have weathered the GFC and they probably can share their experiences here. Off-hand I can think of probably dydx and d.o.g. as well as a few others, so hopefully they can come out to share their stories and experiences.

For myself, it's more of a "lucky break" that I managed to survive as I entered the crisis back then owning companies with heavy leverage (e.g. Ezra, Swiber, China Fishery) and was simply lucky to escape unscathed. Assuming that this turns out to be another big crisis, I hope to avoid the same mistakes again.

hi musicwhiz, thanks for sharing your experience. I went into GFC2008 with half of my portfolio of china stocks that bombed. my lucky break came in Jan2009 when i got a lump sum payout as i was laid off and i put all of them into stocks. I could still vividly remember that STI bottomed on 9th march, and my last buy was on 5th march. At that point of time, my fingers were trembling as i keyed in my orders in poems... Big Grin



My lucky break was when Unisteel was taken private by a US investor group. I received the proceeds in Sep08 and started re-entering the mkt in Nov08. I have recently sold off most of my portfolio in Aug & Sep this year to protect my profits from those days and to cut loss on my more recent additions.
#74
Prognosis Negative: ‘Aftershocks’ Author Predicts Another 2008-Style “Meltdown”
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-tic...01613.html



China “Bubble” Is About to Pop, ‘Aftershock’ Author Declares
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-tic...41535.html
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
#75
Dexia Bank's Collapse and the European Financial Crisis

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/2011100...ial-crisis



(PS: If you own S-chip, better to relook at them. Take for example Qing Mei, why is there a block sale at a discount yesterday if P'E' is already so low?(I hypen the Earning), why is there scrip dividend? To protect cash? For significant shareholder to increase stake? If so then the seller for the married trade should have approach the significant shareholder. I am sure he would be glad to buy if he is issuing scrip dividend to increase stake. If he choose cash instead of scrip dividend....good luck.....These are questions that shareholders got to sort it out themselves.)

China premier urges help for debt-laden businesses

05:33 PM Oct 06, 2011SHANGHAI - China must do more to support the small businesses that provide the bulk of new jobs but are struggling due to tight controls on credit, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Thursday.

Mr Wen made the comments while making an inspection tour of Wenzhou in a visit that reflects growing concern over surging bankruptcies in a city famous for the vitality of its mostly small and medium-sized private businesses.

Mr Wen also suggested China might adjust some policies aimed at excess lending and combating inflation, noting that the economy, growing at a rate of about 9 per cent, remains robust.

"We should maintain the continuity and stability of our policies while giving them more foresight, relevance and flexibility," he said.

China has ordered its state-run banks to keep record amounts of reserves to reduce excess lending, adding to the usual difficulties smaller businesses have in borrowing. That has prompted many to rely more on underground, informal lending, often at usurious rates.

"Effective measures should be taken to contain the trend of usury, crack down on illegal fundraising and properly handle the problems of collateral and capital shortage in order to prevent risks from spreading and evolving on a regional scale,'' Mr Wen said in comments posted on the government website.

"Small businesses play an irreplaceable role in creating jobs and boosting economic growth," Mr Wen said. "It is of overall and strategic significance to support their development," he said.

According to local officials, a lack of cash has forced one-fifth of Wenzhou's 360,000 small and medium-sized businesses to stop operating. In some cases, factory owners have fled, leaving millions of dollars in debt behind.

Mr Wen reiterated the government's call for banks to lend more to smaller companies. Most big banks have tended to shun the private sector, instead preferring to lend to state-invested companies that hold more political sway.

The dichotomy between the cash shortages in the private sector and the relatively easy credit for state industries highlights imbalances in the world's second-largest economy that are hindering the government's effort to create jobs and stimulate more private consumption.

Mr Wen said banks should relax their tolerance for non-performing loans - contrary to the lenders' efforts to better contain risks, reduce costs to borrowers and set targets for expanding lending to the private sector.

Lending to the private sector has surged, jumping nearly 27 per cent from a year earlier to 9.85 trillion yuan (S$2 trillion), state media reported Thursday, citing figures from the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

But the increase has been overshadowed by concern over the explosion in non-bank lending, often at rates far above the legal limit of four times the central bank's benchmark rate of 6.56 per cent. AP

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC1...businesses



http://icapital.biz/lib/viewvideo.asp?id=67&lang=en
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
#76
How Dexia was caught out by the eurozone debt crisis
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15180153


What If the China Bubble Bursts?
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/articl...45,00.html
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
#77
1 month before the GFC bottom...
Quote:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/19/busine...00659.html
Thursday, February 19, 2009

WASHINGTON — The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke, vowed to do whatever it takes to pull the economy out of its downward spiral.....

And now...
Quote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-09...-says.html
Oct 10, 2011 2:28 AM GMT+0800

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said European leaders will do "everything necessary" to ensure that banks have adequate capital.....

Unfortunately...?
Quote:http://www.economist.com/node/21531467
Oct 8th 2011

.....no amount of recapitalisation would be enough to protect banks from a cascade of euro-zone defaults.
#78
lolz! Big Grin

EU is too messy... it has to get worst before it can get better! Big Grin
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR! 
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL! 
#79
So let's all watch it get worse before it (inevitably) gets better.

That's the reason investors are positioned to purchase shares of their select companies. Tongue
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
#80
(10-10-2011, 05:18 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote: So let's all watch it get worse before it (inevitably) gets better.

That's the reason investors are positioned to purchase shares of their select companies. Tongue

It would be good time to buy tomorrow but i prefer more liquid stocks and two looking good to me are Sembmarine & CapitalmallAsia, if you wait for it to come close to 2009 level, you will surely miss the chance.


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