UMS Holdings

[specuvestor]

Just my simple thoughts:

Agree the stake is immaterial to sell. So why did they bother to buy in the first place? IMHO it is a strategic stake in a supplier, not so much about PnL... so what do you think has changed after 12 years?

I agree with Boon that AMAT is not going to cancel their contract. But strategic stakes are not looking at next year anyway, if you get my drift. Will your view chage if AMAT sells down their stake to below 5%?

On 450mm there are many conflicting views because end of the day it is still R&D stage. If it cannot be commercialised you have to abort it. IMHO however I think it probably needs to go on because the node shrinkage is finally reaching a dead end beyond 10nm. Moore's law has already been slowing down dramatically in past few years. I am not unaware of the progress that semicon has made over past 50 years that "nothing is impossible" but the next step is likely to be a revolutionary change as significant as the shift from vaccuum tubes to transistors. There is that much you can improve on vacuum tubes, and I think the point has come for node shrinkage. Material science can only go that far to fit an atom width.

That's why the "easier" step is likely to increase the wafer size rather than shrink node further to cut costs until the next techological replacement is found. But I think we can live pretty comfortably next 2 decades with the die size we have now

I'm enjoying the robust discussion. No ill will intended