30-05-2014, 07:16 AM
Quote:For those who managed to get to 65 years old (start of minimum sum payout for later generations), you have less than 1/5 chance of outliving your minimum sum payout period.
I think the way you calculate the chance is a bit strange..
Assuming that the average future expectancy of the nation is 85 years old, we will need most of them to hit beyond 85 in order to hit an average of 85.
Given a cohort of around 50,000 per age group. We should expect to see more than half to hit beyond 85.
Therefore, at least 25000 of the same age cohort will see 85 and beyond.
However, along the way, some people die early(one toddler death will need multiple oldies to pull up the average) and therefore, when the left over group hit the age 65, their probability of going beyond 85 is even higher.
So, if you can hit 65, technically, you will have more more than 50-60% probability of going beyond 85?