09-02-2014, 02:30 PM
(08-02-2014, 04:46 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:(07-02-2014, 12:55 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Indeed market timing is not about catching top or bottom... it's an impossible task. But not timing it is even more ridiculous becuase value investing tells you what it is worth now, never when it will be worth. That's why value traps are a consistent reminder.
Fact is even if we say we don't time the market, the management of businesses have to do timing all the time, from hedging, to capex spending to staff and marketing costs. In other words we buy into companies inherently believing that management good track record, including timing, can be extrapolated.
My definition of market timing, is speculative move solely base on market price trends. I agree with you that it's an impossible task to success consistently.
I don't see any ridiculous not to time the market price. It is an underlying assumption for value investing i.e. the market price will catch-up with IV over long term. If we have done right on IV, and intent to hold long term, it should be OK not to time the market price, unless the assumption is wrong.
Hedging, if done right, is to avoid the risk of timing the market, right?
Ya also find it confusing to call it market timing. Its more like business timing as described by philip fischer. Significants and probable events that might act as catalysts.