05-09-2013, 12:37 AM
As the dust settles, and the great war between greed and fear starts (considering it was almost entirely fear previously), just some random thoughts:
(1) Glaucus accusations
- SAIC documents vs SAT documents: In both replies, CMZ made no mention that Glaucus's SAIC documents were fake and in fact, indirectly admitted that they are REAL. As much as the Salim group leaves much to be desired in their track record (d.o.g had mentioned something about their accqusition of QAF), it would be unthinkable that at this time, IndoFood had not had access to CMZ's SAIC and SAT documents for the clear picture. This seems to be a genuine case of grey documentation...IndoFood seems to have put the money where their mouth is.
- PRC GAAP vs IFRS: I would be assuming with FY13 results coinciding, CMZ auditors Crowe Horwath have worked overtime in the last 1 week. There does not seem to have been any withdrawal of unqualified opinion yet...
(2) CMZ and IndoFood - An IndoChina whirlwind romance?
- Re-reading the comments, most forumers did not expect IndoFood to make a G.O, let alone at 1.12sgd.
- Tracking back to Feb2013 when both met under matchmaker UOBKayHian, it only took IndoFood less than 3 weeks to buy an additional 15% stake after their initial foray. IndoFood was even more impulsive this time around, seemingly taking just 1 week to make a 'marriage proposal'. My guess is that like the Microsoft-Nokia marriage that was announced today but was first conceived earlier in the year, IndoFood had been doing their homework on increasing their stake beyond 30% in CMZ and in the last week, Glaucus simply 'forced' their hand.
- The offer price of 1.12sgd was the last thing on every rational value retail investor's mind - why pay more when you can take opportunity of market fear and pay at least 15-30% cheaper for a larger stake or complete takeover? My guess is, this is a result of both protecting reputations and revenge. IndoFood might have wanted to be seen more as white knights rather than opportunists. In addition, the last thing Mgt would want, is Glaucus covering their shorts with a profit if the G.O. was made at a lower price..
(1) Glaucus accusations
- SAIC documents vs SAT documents: In both replies, CMZ made no mention that Glaucus's SAIC documents were fake and in fact, indirectly admitted that they are REAL. As much as the Salim group leaves much to be desired in their track record (d.o.g had mentioned something about their accqusition of QAF), it would be unthinkable that at this time, IndoFood had not had access to CMZ's SAIC and SAT documents for the clear picture. This seems to be a genuine case of grey documentation...IndoFood seems to have put the money where their mouth is.
- PRC GAAP vs IFRS: I would be assuming with FY13 results coinciding, CMZ auditors Crowe Horwath have worked overtime in the last 1 week. There does not seem to have been any withdrawal of unqualified opinion yet...
(2) CMZ and IndoFood - An IndoChina whirlwind romance?
- Re-reading the comments, most forumers did not expect IndoFood to make a G.O, let alone at 1.12sgd.
- Tracking back to Feb2013 when both met under matchmaker UOBKayHian, it only took IndoFood less than 3 weeks to buy an additional 15% stake after their initial foray. IndoFood was even more impulsive this time around, seemingly taking just 1 week to make a 'marriage proposal'. My guess is that like the Microsoft-Nokia marriage that was announced today but was first conceived earlier in the year, IndoFood had been doing their homework on increasing their stake beyond 30% in CMZ and in the last week, Glaucus simply 'forced' their hand.
- The offer price of 1.12sgd was the last thing on every rational value retail investor's mind - why pay more when you can take opportunity of market fear and pay at least 15-30% cheaper for a larger stake or complete takeover? My guess is, this is a result of both protecting reputations and revenge. IndoFood might have wanted to be seen more as white knights rather than opportunists. In addition, the last thing Mgt would want, is Glaucus covering their shorts with a profit if the G.O. was made at a lower price..