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Below is the most upvoted video comment (besides the scam comment with a few hundred likes) and pretty much sums up this 59min video in italics:
2023 prediction: hit market bottom in late first quarter, followed by credit event to trigger central bank to ease up and open the door for better financial assets.
2024 prediction: bull run in the first quarter followed by a sharp decline.
He is off the mark for two years in a row. Will he strike out with third wrong prediction in a row?🤔
Of course, folks may argue that a working clock may be broken occasionally, just like how a broken clock will still show the correct time twice a day. Predictions render the unknown less unknowable in psychological terms, reducing anxiety and fear. This probably sums up why all of us are addicted to it. But I will stick with Howard Marks' mental model of "We may never know where we're going, or when the tide will turn, but we had better have a good idea where we are".
2023 prediction: hit market bottom in late first quarter, followed by credit event to trigger central bank to ease up and open the door for better financial assets.
2024 prediction: bull run in the first quarter followed by a sharp decline.
He is off the mark for two years in a row. Will he strike out with third wrong prediction in a row?🤔
Of course, folks may argue that a working clock may be broken occasionally, just like how a broken clock will still show the correct time twice a day. Predictions render the unknown less unknowable in psychological terms, reducing anxiety and fear. This probably sums up why all of us are addicted to it. But I will stick with Howard Marks' mental model of "We may never know where we're going, or when the tide will turn, but we had better have a good idea where we are".