GRAB

[weijian]

A few things we can all agree on. While the combined market of SEA region is attractive, the incentives and the win at all cost mentality is making losers out of all the story-tellers. Actually this mindset is not unique to these disrupters, it happens in many industries and amongst countries as well. Of course this imbalance wont go on perpetually, at some point they will either merge or exit.

And the super-app story where one can get everything in one app is probably the best story of them all. Again, while the envisioned end game might sound extremely attractive, the reality of it happening is exceedingly low. (This is somewhat akin to someone hoping to win a $12M toto and talking about what happens after winning.) Some business are inherently very unattractive to begin with. Having it all is really quite pointless. Forcing it to happen will bring no happiness, especially for investors.

Again, I do not have deep insights into these companies as they do not fall in the what I am able to confidently value. Thus I know only enough to avoid. I speak from a normal business perspective.

Hi BigToe,

Since we are weaving stories, how about thinking like a VC?
Investing like a PE (which is what we are doing) is about what is probable. Investing like a VC is about what is possible.

How about buying a call option in all the stocks that can become a super app of SEA? Size it correctly for a 5-10x return. As per CY09, so far, we have Go-To, Grab and SEA. I don't think any VCs are brave enough to fund a new one from ground up, and so it is pretty reasonable to narrow down to the 3 of them

How does the toe tinks?