Oil Prices

[weijian]

This article makes the same point abt oil, but is better written

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/...an-moment/

To be entirely honest, I can't see how the memes helped in that.   (although reading more of his posts, i realize the memes are a feature, not a bug)

In the history of mankind, boom and bust are common. Without dreams, mankind wouldn't take the risk to act on the "impossible (or abstract)" and then progress. Of course with dreams, it tend to go to excesses and the residual is the bust. This is a feature, not a bug.

That said, It does make a lot of sense to understand the capital cycle based on supply.

O&G have deep cycles. The current bust started at around ~2015 but the memories of negative spot prices for oil are still fresh (April 2020). With the oil majors doing a lot of asset rotation, the Korean and Singaporean yards themselves merging, I do tend to think we are "very close" to the end.