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18-07-2018, 04:02 PM
It's not easy to admit losses (which means you are wrong and suffering cognitive dissonance as a result), especially in an online forum. So kudos to CY09 for been able to do so.
3/11 companies, assuming equal allocation to all companies, means the rest of the companies must give ~40% returns to at least have a chance to break even. So yes, 3/11 is not low probability.
But i reckon the probability should be weighted by the amount of money put in (eg. 40% of the investments came from Epicenter which didnt default), so if CY09 you dont mind, maybe you can publish those numbers for all of us here to learn?
http://letscrowdsmarter.com/2017-update/ --> This guy seems to have stopped in Jan2017 for us to follow up on this real time. Either he is really busy or probably lost money (who wants to spend time updating losses to public?)
3/11 companies, assuming equal allocation to all companies, means the rest of the companies must give ~40% returns to at least have a chance to break even. So yes, 3/11 is not low probability.
But i reckon the probability should be weighted by the amount of money put in (eg. 40% of the investments came from Epicenter which didnt default), so if CY09 you dont mind, maybe you can publish those numbers for all of us here to learn?
http://letscrowdsmarter.com/2017-update/ --> This guy seems to have stopped in Jan2017 for us to follow up on this real time. Either he is really busy or probably lost money (who wants to spend time updating losses to public?)