26-02-2018, 04:24 PM
(26-02-2018, 01:25 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Protégé and I, meanwhile, leaning neither on research, insights nor brilliance, made only one investment
decision during the ten years. We simply decided to sell our bond investment at a price of more than 100 times earnings
(95.7 sale price/.88 yield), those being “earnings” that could not increase during the ensuing five years.
We made the sale in order to move our money into a single security – Berkshire – that, in turn, owned a
diversified group of solid businesses. Fueled by retained earnings, Berkshire’s growth in value was unlikely to be less
than 8% annually, even if we were to experience a so-so economy.
After that kindergarten-like analysis, Protégé and I made the switch and relaxed, confident that, over time, 8%
was certain to beat .88%. By a lot.
Call me pedantic but did someone ask Buffet why the timing?
Since his assumption is 8% earnings till the end of time, why sell only when it was 95.7 and not 95, 94 or 93?
I suspect WB isn't really very upfront about ALL his thought / decision making process.....