China Economic News

[BlueKelah]

well, strictly speaking, PBOC is manipulating for sure. But just not in the way Trump has accused them of.

do you think we'll ever get to 1USD - 8RMB ?

I think we have to go >10years ago for 1USD-8RMB (xe.com only shows last 10years..haha). Of course, China of those days is different from now and so my intuitive guess is that the conditions to go to 1 USD:8 RMB most probably will entail some form of crisis for the currency to depreciate another 20% from here. China is huge with resources, talent and FX reserves controlled by a pseudo-communist cum capitalistic regime which draws its legitimacy on keeping its citizens (whom themselves have had to endure the Cultural Revolution) happy. There is no historical precedency to guide future projections.

Might be easier to call for neighboring SGD:MYR I reckon

Even though Msia makes massive $$ as oil exporter, it is very likely end up like Venezuela lol, maybe very soon SGD1 : MYR4 in a couple years. Looks at their politicians, even running to China for help now, muslim cousins already scared of them liao. If the country start defaulting on other obligations like their 1MDB soveriegn fund did, then no one will even want to hold the currency.

for 11 years from 1994 till 2005 it was above 8RMB per USD. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re...ange_rates
China I guess depends on hard or soft landing. If hard landing like what happened to Japan , like I predict, then 1USD:RMB8 is not unthinkable.

Also if next week FED does a rate rise and gives hawkish guidance, then likely USD up more again and RMB could trend towards RMB7 per USD relative to the USD appreciation.