(18-10-2016, 09:31 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:(18-10-2016, 09:25 AM)Jacmar Wrote: Yes global economy is softening but don't see a major shock coming; not even the incoming interest rate increase which will be slow and mild in next few yrs. I think the only one to look out for is BREXIT if the Europeans are stupid enough to go on a feeding frenzy and shoot their own foot.
The obvious potential big external shocks are, IMO
- A hard Brexit opted in UK
- A "Trump" president in US
- A "hard-landing" in China
I agree, the US interest rate hike, will be slow and mild, hardly quality for a "shock".
What do you think? Anyone to add into the list?
I'll add another black swan event:
War/Terrorism
Between.... I dunno. Seems like everyone has an axe to grind with everyone these days!