Noble Group

[CityFarmer]

As mentioned previously; as of 31st March 2016,  Noble's current assets consist of fair value derivatives which has maturity of beyond 4 years (1,339mil) and before 4 years (1,839 mil). We can safely concur Noble holds such derivatives until they mature. Interestingly, all of Noble's 6 bil of debts mature by 2020. It is worth noting then Noble had maturing debts of 2.5 bil in 2016 and 0.7 bil in 2017. Based on other components of the balance sheet, Noble is likely to experience a cash flow problem.

Fast forward to this week's announcement, Noble has declared that it has refinanced/paid all its debts due in 2016. In addition, from its recent presentation, debts due in 2017 has risen from 0.7 bil (as of 31 march) to 2.0 bil (as of 3 June). Noble intends to repay these 2 bil debts in 2017 through the sale of Noble America and proceeds of the 500 mil rights.

From these facts, it shows Noble has ensured its survival until 2017 by negotiating with banks to roll over debts for 1 more year. Given that Noble still has 2.8 bil more debts to clear by 2020 and that it has 1.8 bil of derivatives cash flow+1.3 bil in cash, it seems Noble may be able to survive if it is able to raise approx 1 to 1.5 bil for its impending sale.

<Interested in Noble if the price is right>

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20An...eID=424147

Noble has agreed to sell its energy biz in North America for 1.05 bil. With that, Noble should be able to survive until 2019.

The sale proceeds is at the low range of my expectation and from that it is likely Noble will have to rely on its banker's goodwill to roll over 2020 debts if the commodities downturn does not improve by then

I agreed with most of your assessments previously, but we need to review regular together with the changes. The disposed asset, together with the recent right issue proceed, will make a diff in both assets' and liabilities's liquidity. The on-going working cap restructuring, is changing the capital structure liquidity too.

In other words, the previous figures might not valid anymore, IMO

(sharing an opinion. Vested, loves it, but not a punter)