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24-08-2011, 05:04 PM
So what is the mean you are expecting? And how long are you expecting the rate to carry on fluctuating before it reverts to your expected mean? What is your worst case scenario?
I think it would be prudent to have some conservative quantitative estimate. For example, say you expect USDSGD to reach 1.XX or 0.XX within Y number of years. By this time, the share price of ABC company should also reach $Z, which would imply a possible A% return after adjusting for USD depreciation/appreciation.
By the way, you should study ( a) a longer history of USD versus the SGD, and ( b) the performance of the USD versus other currencies, like the Swiss Franc over long periods.
I've previously posted some charts at another thread:
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-741.html
I think it would be prudent to have some conservative quantitative estimate. For example, say you expect USDSGD to reach 1.XX or 0.XX within Y number of years. By this time, the share price of ABC company should also reach $Z, which would imply a possible A% return after adjusting for USD depreciation/appreciation.
By the way, you should study ( a) a longer history of USD versus the SGD, and ( b) the performance of the USD versus other currencies, like the Swiss Franc over long periods.
I've previously posted some charts at another thread:
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-741.html