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07-06-2016, 11:02 AM
(This post was last modified: 07-06-2016, 11:03 AM by CY09.
Edit Reason: Edits
)
My two concerns on Noble
Firstly, how much will Noble Americas fetch. If the sale is able to raise at least 1.3 bil, Noble will definitely stay afloat until end 2017.
Secondly, is the fluctuations of its fair value derivatives. Should Noble record another 10-20% loss in these contracts over the next 4 years, the solvency in 2020 will then become another issue.
Earnings wise is a black box because it is probably in 2018 will we see the leaner Noble's earnings after the sales and higher interest.
In that sense, it is harder to value. To me, I will look at Noble at around 12-14 cents per share ( it will be a significant discount for me to its reported book value)
Firstly, how much will Noble Americas fetch. If the sale is able to raise at least 1.3 bil, Noble will definitely stay afloat until end 2017.
Secondly, is the fluctuations of its fair value derivatives. Should Noble record another 10-20% loss in these contracts over the next 4 years, the solvency in 2020 will then become another issue.
Earnings wise is a black box because it is probably in 2018 will we see the leaner Noble's earnings after the sales and higher interest.
In that sense, it is harder to value. To me, I will look at Noble at around 12-14 cents per share ( it will be a significant discount for me to its reported book value)