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17-05-2016, 09:14 AM
(16-05-2016, 10:21 PM)weijian Wrote:Exactly my sentiment.(16-05-2016, 05:07 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: @Temperament : I am probably one of the few hoping for Black Swan to happen. That's when the loaded elephant gun will go to work. If you are buying individual stocks of companies you have been following for a while and know what is going on with management and the industry/sector and what assets are backing the stocks you are buying, there wont be any trepidation at all as prices sink. True value investors thrive on down markets.
Easy to say, easy to do as well, just so long you have a plan and have had enough experience investing in stocks and gone through crash markets like during AFC and GFC.
Most people who derive their prosperity based on certainty (and depends on it) don't wish for black swans. An example, would be a person with a heavy mortgage, one with young kids. There should be more people than Mr BlueKelah think there is, that want Black Swans to happen. The funny thing is, our definition of "black swan" and "hoping for it to happen" most probably involves an extreme low probability event that is far away from us. How about a Japanese earthquake when you were in Fukushima yourself when it happened? How about getting stage4 cancer yourself? How about a Singaporean economic crisis that gets unemployment to 15%? How about Zika spreading in Singapore and you have a pregnant wife?
Our understanding of Black Swans need to go beyond what we read from Nassim Taleb and thinking on the 2nd level of our own implications.
No matter how much you think you know, there is no 100% of a sure thing in life.
And you can only know what is reported to date.
Again what you know UTD report may not be 100 % the truth or accurate.
Again the discrepancy in the report maybe "genuine" mistake.
You know who like to speak in this way.
So it's my genuine mistake, to think there is no 100% sure thing buying Blue Chips in a Black Swan market.
On the other hand, most people are just too happy buying in a Bull Market.
Again this may be a genuine mistake for some of them.
LIFE IS SO UNPREDITABLE.
YET THE SUN WILL SURELY RISE IN THE EAST AND SET IN THE WEST.
LULLING US TO THINK LIFE IS PREDICTABLE SOMETIMES.
SO IS WHEN WE ARE IN THE MARKET?
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.