19-03-2016, 11:39 PM
(19-03-2016, 11:14 AM)Hayden Wrote: ...
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- Re Gzbel on PE ratio. The funny thing about PE ratio is that the valuation get distorted with unusual high net cash or net debt. EV to EBITDA or EV to FCF would be a better option to evaluate TTJ. Let's see how high net cash distort market perceived valuation. TTJ $0.29 market price is made up of underlying valuation $0.12 and floor price $0.17 (net cash). If today, the management chose to return half the net cash $0.085 and assuming the market price rise in accordance to this dividend and subsequently falls back to $0.29 market price (similar scenario took place during the 8c dividend payout period though recurrence not guaranteed), the new component is now made up of $0.205 and $0.085 (net cash). Excluding earnings from dorm business, average EPS is about $0.03 in accordance with Gzbel's calculation. The market perceived PE ratio remain unchanged at 9.67x, but the underlying valuation has increased from 4x to 6.8x. Of course such scenario is not guaranteed but I am just trying to show how misleading PE ratio is.
IMO, EV can be misleading too (a.k.a Value Trap).
Maybe sometime like this would be better for investors like us who can't buy the whole company outright:
MEV (Minority Enterprise Value) = EV + (Cash that would probably be hoarded forever or simply lost somehow)
Luckily things seems to be in our favor from the recent events that can be observed...