Chesapeake Energy

[GFG]

I was looking at CHK's latest 10K report:

1. Net worth was at 2.1B (including preferred stock of 3.1B).
2. Long term debt at 10.7B.
3. Expected future net cash inflows (based on crude at $50.28 and NG at $2.58) is 11.1B (@nominal value, 4.7B based on PV10). If we apply crude at $30 and NG at $2, chances are that the 11.1B will fall by 50%. 
4. Do note that annual interest of 500m (optimistic assumption) and administration expenses of 200m have not been taken into consideration in expected future net cash inflows simulation.
5. Re-structuring is clearly needed. 
6. Market capitalisation of company is 1.7B as at 26 Feb 2016.
7. My takeaway is that shareholders are either betting that energy prices will recover quickly or debt holders will take a huge haircut or both.
8. Incidentally, CHK debt is trading at around 20-30cts to the dollar last time I checked.

I am vested in CHK, which is why I started this thread hoping for alternative views

Not sure how u derive 3. 
It's hard to project future CF as it obviously depends on oil n gas prices, and I don't think anyone really knows, except the Saudis
But there are some crucial points that aren't mentioned:
1) credit facility of $4b
Assuming the credit is not cut, this can easily sustain CHK through 2016 n 2017's capex
2) hedges. CHK has hedged for 2016, locking in oil prices. Can't rem offhand what that is, but it's mid $40s
3) asset sales. CHK has crazily good acreage. Even its detractors don't deny that
Management is guiding for ard $700mil from asset sales
4) debt holders ARE taking a huge haircut. Management has already done a bond swap, and the latest results showed they bought back discounted bonds, the march'16 debt was repurchased at 5% discount, longer bonds were repurchased at 45% discount