Oil Prices

[BlueKelah]

After having read (& listen) through XX (lost count) 2Q15 reports of E&P companies in the US (with several more to go this week but I do not expect surprises), I have arrived at the following conclusions:

1. Capex has peaked out around 4Q/1Q15, with significant cuts to follow through the rest of the year => which is lagging rig count by around 1Q.
2. Production has also peaked (lagging capex by 1Q) in 2Q15, with flat to (mostly) down guidance for rest of the year.
3. No US player reported any profits for their 2Q15 upstream ops, and their cash burn rate is really eye-watering. I would expect worse results for 3Q15 with the recent fall in prices.

Therefore, my prediction is that oil prices will hit a low in 3Q15 with a gradual recovery as oil supplies start to tighten.

you do realise a lot depends on Iran too, once they really start dumping their big stash of crude and kickstart their dormant pumps, supply is really gonna flood in.