Noble Group

[CityFarmer]

at the current price PE still >20...

in my opinion still a lot of room for it to go down further!

I purchased it based on PB. It took an impairment loss of 200+ millions last FY 2014 and hence the PE > 20. Of course we can argue till the cows come home. E.g book value is overstated, impairment loss should be much more etc.. I am no expert in that area hence this puny stake for fun.

To join the fun, I am working out the "safer" price to bet on Noble. All in S$ from shareinvestor.com

Current Asset : 20.7 billion
Total Liabilities : 19.2 billion
Liquidation Value without discount (Current Asset - Total Liabilities) : 1.5 billion
Outstanding Share (ex-Treasury) : 6.4 billion shares
LV per share : ~24 cents per share.

How much is the fixed asset worth, which is the hardest question. Let's make a 75% cut of the fixed asset from 5.5 billion to 1.4 billion, or ~22 cents per share.

Total : 24 cents + 22 cents = 46 cents per share, which is very close to current market price.

Is the company over-sold, to an irrational valuation? I guess it is very likely so.

What do you think?

(not vested, and not prepare to bet)