New Toyo

I think there has been so much of discussion here that seriously some of the vested buddies should seriously consider tabling a LBO on N Toyo. All your calculations are fantastic. Never had any doubts about everyone's calculations

Amcor buying out N Toyo - be very objective: Amcor is a global packaging conglomerate listed on ASX. I am very sure that they have looked at the BAT sale and contract deal when N Toyo was evaluating. How on earth did N Toyo ended up with the deal or why did Amcor pass up the deal - I really think that we should have a harder re-think. Amcor giving up a good deal??? And now would Amcor buyout N Toyo???

Also noted that N Toyo bagged the BAT deal in late 08. How long did Tien Wah take to smoothly execute the deal - Almost 2 years. They only got all their machinery installed by middle of last year. Now the BAT contract only got 5 yrs left - are there sufficient time to recoup the huge capex? Has anyone done a DCF on the BAT deal?

SAH deal is in the bag. SAH deal is probably one of the most high profile business sale deal in recent SGX history. Why is it so difficult for the buyer to mount a straight takeover instead of buying the business? After buying the business, why is there a need to have a 50% retainer to explore new business?

N Toyo was listed in 1997. After the high profile listing, it ventured into a highly expensive Vietnamese tissue paper plant project only to exit later at huge losses. The only time N Toyo reached back out to the analysts community was in late 03 in preparation for SAH. However, SAH listing turned out to be another IPO coming to market for cash in order to seek a supposedly related industry (FMCG Aluminium) to cover up for a declining tobacco packaging outfit.

Right after the listing of SAH, N Toyo took a long time to recycle some capital from SAH - to be exact until 2008 when they finally took on the BAT sale and contract deal.

If anyone had knew N Toyo history since listing - can anyone recollect as clearly as I am, then all the question marks that I have listed above would have justified the risks of N Toyo. More recently, Junior Yen quit the N Toyo as CEO - son supposed to takeover father in a largely controlled family business - has anyone wonder why?

I am vested but I just wonder to highlight once and for all all the above questions so that all you buddies look at N Toyo with wide open eyes. Table top calculations is simplistic. Running a business is extremely tough especially in a sin related support industry. Bear in mind N Toyo is a mere support player, not the tobacco manufacturer itself that is the ultimate money printing machine.

Greengiraffe
Your points ought to be assessed carefully by investors.
I may add New Toyo got out of the unprofitable corrugated carton box business several years ago. Its existing specialty paper business is also not faring that well.
Your have surmised that New Toyo ended up with the 7+3-year BAT supply contract because Amcor opted out. One may also conjecture that Amcor competed with New Toyo, but lost out.
Amcor used to be a shareholder of Tien Wah, but sold its stake to New Toyo, enabling the latter to gain control of Tien Wah several years ago. Was Tien Wah such a marginal packaging company that did not excite Amcor?
It may not be true that cigarette packaging is characterised by low profitability. Amvig (which prints cigarette cartons in China) enjoys a high gross profit margin of around 33%. Tien Wah did not fare that badly; last year its gross profit margin was 21%, and may rise as the company scales its learning curve, and as some jobs are channeled to lower-cost Vietnam.
Tien Wah's reasonable margin and strong profit are after depreciating the equipment that were bought after the BAT supply contract.
New Toyo's passivity in the SAH's asset sales saga is disappointing.
Gary Yen's resignation as CEO, Mr Yen Wen Hwa's retirement, and the flurry of acquisitions by Amcor have spurred speculations about New Toyo being bought over. This may or may not come true. Poring over Tien Wah's annual reports provides optimism that New Toyo will ride on Tien Wah's strong prospects.

How will New Toyo benefit from the MYANMAR fever, which has sparked a rally in the stocks of Yoma Strategic Holdings and Interra Resources ?

It has operational bases in China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand...

And Myanmar seems to be one of its export markets...

http://www.newtoyo.com/marketpresence.htm

(10-04-2012, 11:23 AM)portuser Wrote: Greengiraffe
Your points ought to be assessed carefully by investors.
I may add New Toyo got out of the unprofitable corrugated carton box business several years ago. Its existing specialty paper business is also not faring that well.
Your have surmised that New Toyo ended up with the 7+3-year BAT supply contract because Amcor opted out. One may also conjecture that Amcor competed with New Toyo, but lost out.
Amcor used to be a shareholder of Tien Wah, but sold its stake to New Toyo, enabling the latter to gain control of Tien Wah several years ago. Was Tien Wah such a marginal packaging company that did not excite Amcor?
It may not be true that cigarette packaging is characterised by low profitability. Amvig (which prints cigarette cartons in China) enjoys a high gross profit margin of around 33%. Tien Wah did not fare that badly; last year its gross profit margin was 21%, and may rise as the company scales its learning curve, and as some jobs are channeled to lower-cost Vietnam.
Tien Wah's reasonable margin and strong profit are after depreciating the equipment that were bought after the BAT supply contract.
New Toyo's passivity in the SAH's asset sales saga is disappointing.
Gary Yen's resignation as CEO, Mr Yen Wen Hwa's retirement, and the flurry of acquisitions by Amcor have spurred speculations about New Toyo being bought over. This may or may not come true. Poring over Tien Wah's annual reports provides optimism that New Toyo will ride on Tien Wah's strong prospects.

Its clear to me that New Toyo is for sale judging by major shldrs action. Its got big foot print for graving paper that is profitable and Tien Wah bought cheap!! Now the entire Co. is worth more than 30cts market price.

In fact SAH as a shell is also worth a lot more, as can be seen from Ocean Sky, profitable S-chip can be injected to excite a exit by New Toyo.

Buy back some for dividend and keep faith to see action!

I think the final dividend of about 0.97 cts should be announced within this few days.

Let us sit back and wait.

Amcor Financial Info ending 31 Dec 2011

(In Aussie dollars)
EBITDA - 770.9 mil
Net Interest Expense - 102.4 mil
NPAT - 215.6 mil
Adjusted EPS - 16.5 cents

Dividends = 18 cents
Market Cap = 8.48 Bil
P/E = 25.58

********

Amcor P/E is about 4 times that of New Toyo.

Is Amcor overvalued or New Toyo undervalued?

(10-04-2012, 05:22 PM)Underdogger Wrote: Amcor Financial Info ending 31 Dec 2011

(In Aussie dollars)
EBITDA - 770.9 mil
Net Interest Expense - 102.4 mil
NPAT - 215.6 mil
Adjusted EPS - 16.5 cents

Dividends = 18 cents
Market Cap = 8.48 Bil
P/E = 25.58

********

Wow its P/E is sky high?? New Toyo only abt P/E 6 to 7

Can we compare Apple to Creative?

Creative is currently making a loss ...

(10-04-2012, 05:25 PM)greengiraffe Wrote:

(10-04-2012, 05:22 PM)Underdogger Wrote: Amcor Financial Info ending 31 Dec 2011

(In Aussie dollars)
EBITDA - 770.9 mil
Net Interest Expense - 102.4 mil
NPAT - 215.6 mil
Adjusted EPS - 16.5 cents

Dividends = 18 cents
Market Cap = 8.48 Bil
P/E = 25.58

********

Wow its P/E is sky high?? New Toyo only abt P/E 6 to 7

Can we compare Apple to Creative?

Looks like director Yen reward himself first by taking a special retirement of 2.2million? I thought this kind of thing only happen in wall street. Now minority like ourselves have to wait wait and wait....tough luck, no mention of any special distribution.

Better go to the AGM and ask directors what they intent to do with SAH. Distribute means Co. confident of its prospect, otherwise why keep the cash??

Well, I think they are not going to reveal anything.
Anything sensitive in nature will have to go through SGX.

In the meantime, it would be interesting to note that
Shanghai Asia is also holding their AGM, end of the month.

There should be a lot of questions, but few or no answers........ as usual.